Number of found documents: 28
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Economic Research Bulletin (2017, No.1)
Česká národní banka
2017 - English
One of the key determinants of economic development in small open economies such as the Czech one is the external environment. Understanding the linkages to the external world is therefore of utmost importance for policymakers. It is not only international trade that is important. Capital flows and exchange rate fluctuations are also among the economic phenomena that should be monitored and analysed. The articles in this Research Bulletin represent a sample of the CNB’s research dealing with modelling of trade and capital flows and exchange rate fluctuations. The first article decomposes aggregate export growth in the Czech Republic in 2005–2014. The second article presents research aimed at improving the trade forecast. The third article also contains research relevant to economic forecasting. The fourth article studies the role of exchange rate movements. Keywords: fiskální politika; makroekonomie; inflace Available in a digital repository NRGL
Economic Research Bulletin (2017, No.1)

One of the key determinants of economic development in small open economies such as the Czech one is the external environment. Understanding the linkages to the external world is therefore of utmost ...

Česká národní banka
Česká národní banka, 2017

Economic Research Bulletin (2016, No.1)
Česká národní banka
2016 - English
Knowledge of labour market conditions is essential to macroeconomic modelling and forecasting processes in the central bank. The slow recovery from the Great Recession calls for a deeper understanding of the underlying relationships between labour market indicators and economic activity. This edition of the Bulletin presents four articles that address labour market issues at the aggregate and firm levels. Keywords: makroekonomie; ekonomické modely; trh práce Available in a digital repository NRGL
Economic Research Bulletin (2016, No.1)

Knowledge of labour market conditions is essential to macroeconomic modelling and forecasting processes in the central bank. The slow recovery from the Great Recession calls for a deeper understanding ...

Česká národní banka
Česká národní banka, 2016

Economic Research Bulletin (2016, No.2)
Česká národní banka
2016 - English
Issues connected with the financial cycle have gained prominence in recent decades, as they form the key component of the time dimension of the newly formed macroprudential policies. Analysis of the financial cycle covers a combination of purely theoretical models (explaining different channels of propagation of the financial cycle to the real economy) and practical applications estimating the financial cycle (directly applicable to macroprudential policies such as the setting of countercyclical capital buffers). Financial cycle issues also influence the debate of the interaction between monetary and macroprudential policies. This edition of the Bulletin presents four articles that address financial cycle issues. Two of them are theoretical, one is purely empirical and one covers issues related to the interaction of the different policies conducted within the central bank. Keywords: fiskální politika; monetární politika; makroekonomie Available in a digital repository NRGL
Economic Research Bulletin (2016, No.2)

Issues connected with the financial cycle have gained prominence in recent decades, as they form the key component of the time dimension of the newly formed macroprudential policies. Analysis of the ...

Česká národní banka
Česká národní banka, 2016

Economic Research Bulletin (2015, No.2)
Česká národní banka
2015 - English
As a consequence of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) inflation has dropped sharply worldwide. The low levels of inflation have persisted since then due in part to the recent fall in oil prices. Such circumstances represent a new situation for central bankers, who have usually been concerned with the opposite problem – how to respond to persistently high inflation. Challenging times for policy makers usually mean very exciting times for researchers, and this is what research depar tments in central banks are experiencing at the moment. Many new research questions relating to the prolonged period of low inflation have appeared, and the current issue of the Bulletin aims to introduce some of them which CNB researchers are currently in vestigating. Keywords: inflace; monetární politika Available in a digital repository NRGL
Economic Research Bulletin (2015, No.2)

As a consequence of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) inflation has dropped sharply worldwide. The low levels of inflation have persisted since then due in part to the recent fall in oil prices. Such ...

Česká národní banka
Česká národní banka, 2015

Economic Research Bulletin (2015, No.1)
Česká národní banka
2015 - English
Appropriate, state - of - the - art forecasting techniques are crucial for guiding the monetary policy decisions of central banks. At the same time, knowledge of the initial conditions in the economy is a prerequisite for good forecasts. Such knowledge is incorporated as expert judgement on top of the model forecast. It is also important to understand which factors contribute to differences between two (old and new ) forecasts. This edition of the Research Bulletin presents four articles that describe recently developed forecasting techniques, the role of expert judgement in the forecasting process, and a new structural model forecast evaluation technique used at the Czech National Bank. Keywords: banky; centrální banka cedulová; monetární politika; makroekonomie Available in a digital repository NRGL
Economic Research Bulletin (2015, No.1)

Appropriate, state - of - the - art forecasting techniques are crucial for guiding the monetary policy decisions of central banks. At the same time, knowledge of the initial conditions in the economy ...

Česká národní banka
Česká národní banka, 2015

Economic Research Bulletin (2014, No. 2)
Česká národní banka
2014 - English
Central banks significantly expanded their domain following the global financial crisis. Macroprudential policy, which marries the issues of financial stability and financial supervision with macroeconomic stabilisation, became its new core competence. This new competence needed a wide analytical basis. Therefore, the E uropean System of Central Banks established the Macro - prudential Research Network (MaR s), which concluded its three year existence in June 2014. This edition of the Research Bulletin presents five articles that rank among the CNB’s numerous contributions to the MaRs, covering diverse issues related to macroprudential policy. Keywords: makroekonomie; banky; monetární politika; finanční trh Available in a digital repository NRGL
Economic Research Bulletin (2014, No. 2)

Central banks significantly expanded their domain following the global financial crisis. Macroprudential policy, which marries the issues of financial stability and financial supervision with ...

Česká národní banka
Česká národní banka, 2014

Economic Research Bulletin (2014, No.1)
Česká národní banka
2014 - English
This edition of the Research Bulletin presents four articles that introduce the modelling framework of the various stress tests used regularly by the Czech National Bank. The first article focuses on the methodology of the current stress tests employed to assess the stability of the banking sector. It explains the links between the core and satellite models and how various adverse scenarios are generated to test the stability of the Czech banking sector. It also provides guidelines on how stresstest parameters should be calibrated. Concerns about liquidity played an enormous role in the recent financial crisis, and the second article therefore focuses specifically on the liquidity risk of the banking sector. It presents a well-defined methodology used also by other central banks, but tailors it to the specific conditions of the Czech banking sector. The third article presents a recently developed methodology for assessing the ability of Czech households to pay their debts. Using detailed household-level data, it quantifies how different adverse events, such as unemployment and higher interest rates on debt repayment, affect households’ incidence of becoming financially distressed. The fourth article introduces stress-test models for the insurance sector. It discusses the specificities of the stress tests developed for this sector. It also sets out how to extend these already advanced tests to align them with changes going on in the regulatory framework. Keywords: zátěžové testy; financial market; banks; Stress test; Household economics; insurance industry; finanční trh; banky; domácnost; pojišťovnictví Available in a digital repository NRGL
Economic Research Bulletin (2014, No.1)

This edition of the Research Bulletin presents four articles that introduce the modelling framework of the various stress tests used regularly by the Czech National Bank. The first article focuses on ...

Česká národní banka
Česká národní banka, 2014

Economic Research Bulletin (2013, No.2)
Česká národní banka
2013 - English
This edition of the Research Bulletin focuses on four articles which analyse the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy. The first article examines the interactions between monetary and fiscal policies in six industrialised countries during 1980–2008. Employing a novel empirical framework, the article documents changes in monetary-fiscal interactions over time. Next, these changes are linked to the monetary policy regime set-up. The second article assesses the extent to which fiscal discretion in the Czech Republic contributed to smoothing the real economy over the business cycle in the past decade. Using several alternative approaches, the results suggest that fiscal discretionary measures have been procyclical, that is, have amplified business cycle fluctuations. The third article analyses in an empirical framework how unexpected changes to government spending and revenues affect the Czech economy. The article detects certain regularities and at the same time shows the limits of the existing identification methods when applied to short Czech fiscal data. The fourth article takes a complementary approach by building a dynamic stochastic general equilib rium (DSGE) model to quantify the effects of fiscal measures on the expenditure and revenue sides of the Czech economy. The model, which is still rather in the development stage, demonstrates the potential for calculating fiscal multipliers and simulating the macroeconomic effects of fiscal measures for individual categories of the government budget. Keywords: makroekonomická stabilita; česká ekonomika; DSGE model; fiscal policy; monetary policy; macroeconomics; gross domestic product; Bayesian approach; fiskální politika; monetární politika; makroekonomie; hrubý domácí produkt; bayesovský přístup Available in a digital repository NRGL
Economic Research Bulletin (2013, No.2)

This edition of the Research Bulletin focuses on four articles which analyse the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy. The first article examines the interactions between monetary and fiscal ...

Česká národní banka
Česká národní banka, 2013

Economic Research Bulletin (2013, No.1)
Česká národní banka
2013 - English
This edition of the Research Bulletin presents five articles that analyse various important policy issues related to monetary transmission. The first article analyses whether inflation dynamics have changed over time in Central Europe. It finds that the inflation process becomes more forward-looking only if the inflation targeting regime gains in credibility. The second article examines whether central banks in Central Europe carry out monetary policy in an asymmetric manner. The results are mixed, although some evidence for asymmetry with respect to financial instability is found. To prevent instability, central banks prefer looser policy than standard macroeconomic m odels would imply. The third article specifically looks at the monetary transmission changes in the Czech Republic. The results indicate that the reaction of economic agents to monetary policy has increased over time. The fourth article quantitatively surveys the literature on the transmission lags of monetary policy. The economy responds to monetary policy faster in Central and Eastern European EU member countries than in large economies. Greater trade openness and a lower degree of financial development are found to be key factors associated with faster monetary policy transmission. The fifth article quantitatively surveys the literature on how monetary policy affects prices. It shows that empirical studies which find that more restrictive monetary policy fails to deliver price stability are likely to be misspecified. It proposes a general framework that researchers should follow in order to reduce the risks of misspecification of this model. Keywords: měnová politika; inflation; central bank of issue; monetary policy; inflace; centrální banka cedulová; monetární politika Available in a digital repository NRGL
Economic Research Bulletin (2013, No.1)

This edition of the Research Bulletin presents five articles that analyse various important policy issues related to monetary transmission. The first article analyses whether inflation dynamics have ...

Česká národní banka
Česká národní banka, 2013

Economic Research Bulletin (2012, No.2)
Česká národní banka
2012 - English
The importance of analysing the interactions between financial stability and monetary policy and its effects on macroeconomic fluctuations has risen substantially during the current financial crisis. This edition of the Research Bulletin is focused on five articles which analyse these interactions from various angles. The first article examines the effect of tighter macroprudential and monetary policies on output. According to this research, in comparison to monetary policy, macroprudential policy may be less costly, as it has less adverse effects on bank earnings. The second article examines to what extent financial frictions matter for macroeconomic fluctuations. The results suggest that the effect of financial frictions on macroeconomic fluctuations is sizeable only when financial stress is sufficiently high. The third article focuses on the relation between central bank finances and inflation. The article concludes that central bank losses are unlikely to represent a threat to price stability. The fourth article examines whether low monetary policy rates may increase commercial banks’ risk-taking. It finds that too low an interest rate may lead to a build-up of long-term risks to financial stability, but a lower interest rate during the life of a loan reduces its riskiness. The fifth article examines the interactions between bank capital and bank liquidity creation. The results indicate that greater capital requirements are beneficial for financial stability but may have an adverse effect on bank liquidity creation. Keywords: central banks; macroeconomy; Czech national bank; centrální banka cedulová; ekonomický výzkum; makroekonomie Available in a digital repository NRGL
Economic Research Bulletin (2012, No.2)

The importance of analysing the interactions between financial stability and monetary policy and its effects on macroeconomic fluctuations has risen substantially during the current financial crisis. ...

Česká národní banka
Česká národní banka, 2012

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