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Hostility, population sorting, and backwardness: quasi-experimental evidence from the Red Army after WWII
Ochsner, Christian
2023 - English
Does a short episode of conflict or exposure to hostile troops cause regional economic backwardness, and if so, why and how does it persist? I answer these questions by exploiting economic differences across the idiosyncratic and short-lived line of contact between the Red Army and the Western Allies in South Austria at the end of WWII. Spatial regression discontinuity estimates show that hostile presence of the Red Army for 74 days caused an immediate relative population decline of around 12%, amplified to 25% by today. Age-specific migration patterns and subsequent fertility differences explain the multiplying effects. Sector development and measures of local labor productivity in 2011 also lag behind in regions briefly seized by the Red Army, likely driven by skill-specific migration and hampered investment patterns after WWII. The findings provide novel insights into the long-run effects of wars and conflicts, and point to the isolated role of the Red Army’s hostile actions after WWII to understand the European economic East-West divide.\n
Keywords:
conflict; hostility; population shock
Fulltext is available at external website.
Hostility, population sorting, and backwardness: quasi-experimental evidence from the Red Army after WWII
Does a short episode of conflict or exposure to hostile troops cause regional economic backwardness, and if so, why and how does it persist? I answer these questions by exploiting economic differences ...
Ruská imperiální válka a potřeba pomoci Ukrajině během války a po ní
Švejnar, Jan
2023 - Czech
V této eseji se na základě historického pohledu na imperiální ambice Ruska a Sovětského svazu zabývám Putinovou invazí na Ukrajinu a potřebou rozhodné pomoci západu Ukrajině během války a po ní. Zdůrazňuji, že role, kterou v západní reakci sehrály země středovýchodní Evropy, byla rozhodující, stejně jako je a v budoucnu může být jiným způsobem rozhodující role Číny. Západní sankce doposud nebyly příliš účinné, protože Evropa nadále dovážela ruskou ropu a plyn a většina západních firem Rusko neopustila. Na globální úrovni Putinova invaze na Ukrajinu také do značné míry předznamenává, že se žádná země nikdy nevzdá svých jaderných zbraní výměnou za bezpečnostní záruky velmocí. In this essay, I use a historical perspective on Russia’s and Soviet Union’s imperial ambitions to examine Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and the need for the West to assist Ukraine decisively during and after the War. I emphasize that the part played by the countries of Central-East Europe in western response has been critical, as is and may in the future be, in a different way, the part played by China. Western sanctions have not been very effective as Europe has continued importing Russian oil and gas and most western firms have not left Russia. At the global level, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine also pretty much ensures that no country will ever give up its nuclear weapons in return for security guarantees by the Great Powers.
Keywords:
Russia; invasion of Ukraine; assistance
Fulltext is available at external website.
Ruská imperiální válka a potřeba pomoci Ukrajině během války a po ní
V této eseji se na základě historického pohledu na imperiální ambice Ruska a Sovětského svazu zabývám Putinovou invazí na Ukrajinu a potřebou rozhodné pomoci západu Ukrajině během války a po ní. ...
Are subsidies to business R&D effective? Regression discontinuity evidence from the TA CR ALFA programme
Bajgar, Matěj; Srholec, Martin
2023 - English
Governments subsidise business research and experimental development (R&D) to promote development of the economy, because externalities and information asymmetries inherent to the innovation process make private funding of these activities fall short of what is socially desirable. Nevertheless, how effective such subsidies are and whether they achieve their goals is an open question that needs to be studied empirically. This study leverages the state-of-the-art method of regression discontinuity (RD) that allows us to come very close to making causal inferences about the effects of subsidies, to find out whether the Technology Agency of the Czech Republic’s (TA CR) ALFA programme stimulated new business R&D inputs, outputs, and positive economic impacts that would not have happened otherwise.
Keywords:
government subsidies; innovations; economic development
Fulltext is available at external website.
Are subsidies to business R&D effective? Regression discontinuity evidence from the TA CR ALFA programme
Governments subsidise business research and experimental development (R&D) to promote development of the economy, because externalities and information asymmetries inherent to the innovation process ...
Rozdíly nákladnosti vysokoškolského výzkumu mezi vědními oblastmi: jak moc se liší od „KENů“ ve výuce?
Srholec, Martin
2023 - Czech
Na téma nízkých mezd v oblasti sociálních a humanitních věd bylo v poslední době hodně řečeno a napsáno. Akademici proti tomu už i demonstrovali v ulicích a začalo se dokonce mluvit o stávce. Ačkoliv řešení vypadá v nedohlednu, jeden pozitivní výsledek tomu nelze upřít. Začalo se totiž konečně mluvit o tom, jestli tzv. koeficienty ekonomické náročnosti (KEN), podle kterých již třicet let rozděluje MŠMT hlavní část dotace na vysokoškolskou výuku, nepotřebují aktualizovat. Cílem této studie je porovnat rozptyl těchto KENů s rozdíly v nákladnosti akademické činnosti, která má k vysokoškolské výuce nejblíže, což je bezesporu výzkum a vývoj (VaV). Nesnažíme se spočítat nové KENy – což by bylo žádoucí, ale není v rámci nám dostupných dat a zdrojů proveditelné – nýbrž alespoň rámcově zjistit, do jaké míry se současné KENy liší od proporcí pozorovaných ve VaV. Much has been said and written recently about low wages in the social sciences and humanities. Academics have demonstrated in the streets about it, and there has even been talk of a strike. Although a solution seems to be out of sight, one positive outcome cannot be denied. Discussion has finally begun on whether the so-called „koeficienty ekonomické náročnosti“ (KEN), on the base of which the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports (MEYS) distributes the main part of the subsidy for teaching in higher education over the past thirty years needs to be updated. This study compares the dispersion of KENs with the differences in costs of the academic activity closest to higher education teaching, which is undoubtedly research and development (R&D). We are not attempting to recalculate the KENs - which would be desirable, but is not feasible with the data and resources available to us - but at least to approximate the extent to which current KENs differ from the costs observed in R&D.
Keywords:
social sciences and humanities; R&D; wages
Fulltext is available at external website.
Rozdíly nákladnosti vysokoškolského výzkumu mezi vědními oblastmi: jak moc se liší od „KENů“ ve výuce?
Na téma nízkých mezd v oblasti sociálních a humanitních věd bylo v poslední době hodně řečeno a napsáno. Akademici proti tomu už i demonstrovali v ulicích a začalo se dokonce mluvit o stávce. Ačkoliv ...
“Crime and punishment”? How banks anticipate and propagate global financial sanctions
Mamonov, Mikhail; Pestova, Anna; Ongena, S.
2023 - English
We study the impacts of global financial sanctions on banks and their corporate borrowers in Russia. Financial sanctions were imposed consecutively between 2014 and 2019, allowing targeted (but not-yet-sanctioned) banks to adapt their international and domestic exposures in advance. Using a staggered difference-in-differences approach with in-advance adaptation to anticipated treatment, we establish that targeted banks immediately reduced their foreign assets and actually increased their international borrowings after the first sanction announcement compared to other similar banks. We reveal that the added value of the next sanction announcements was rather limited. Despite considerable outflow of domestic private deposits, the government support prevented disorderly bank failures and resulted in credit reshuffling: the banks contracted corporate lending by 4% of GDP and increased household lending by almost the same magnitude, which mostly offset the total economic loss. Further, we introduce a two-stage treatment diffusion approach that flexibly addresses potential spillovers of the sanctions to private banks with political connections. Employing unique hand-collected board membership and bank location data, our approach shows that throughout this period, politically-connected banks were not all equally recognized as potential sanction targets. Finally, using syndicated loan data, we establish that the real negative effects of sanctions materialized only when sanctioned firms were borrowing from sanctioned banks. When borrowing from unsanctioned banks, sanctioned firms even gained in terms of employment and investment but still lost in terms of market sales pointing to a misallocation of government support.
Keywords:
staggered policy implementation; anticipation effects; treatment diffusion
Fulltext is available at external website.
“Crime and punishment”? How banks anticipate and propagate global financial sanctions
We study the impacts of global financial sanctions on banks and their corporate borrowers in Russia. Financial sanctions were imposed consecutively between 2014 and 2019, allowing targeted (but ...
Disclosure discrimination: an experiment focusing on communication in the hiring process
Badalyan, S.; Korlyakova, Darya; Rehák, Rastislav
2023 - English
We focus on communication among hiring team members and document the existence of discrimination in the disclosure of information about candidates. In particular, we conduct an online experiment with a nationally representative sample of Czech individuals who act as human resource assistants and hiring managers in our online labor market. The main novel feature of our experiment is the monitoring of information flow between human resource assistants and hiring managers. We exogenously manipulate candidates’ names to explore the causal effects of their gender and nationality on information that assistants select for managers. Our findings reveal that assistants disclose more information about family and less information about work for female candidates relative to male candidates. An in-depth analysis of the disclosed information suggests that gender stereotypes play an important role in this disclosure discrimination. Furthermore, assistants disclose less information about foreigners overall. This effect appears to be driven by the less attention assistants are willing to devote to the CVs of foreigners, measured by the extra effort to learn more about the candidates.
Keywords:
information; disclosure; hiring
Fulltext is available at external website.
Disclosure discrimination: an experiment focusing on communication in the hiring process
We focus on communication among hiring team members and document the existence of discrimination in the disclosure of information about candidates. In particular, we conduct an online experiment with ...
Racial discrimination and lost innovation: evidence from US inventors, 1895–1925
Coluccia, D. M.; Dossi, G.; Ottinger, Sebastian
2023 - English
How can racial discrimination harm innovation? We study this question using data on US inventors linked to population censuses in 1895-1925. Our novel identification strategy leverages plausibly exogenous variation in the timing of lynchings and the name of the victims. We find an immediate and persistent decrease in patents granted to inventors who share their names with the victims of lynchings, but only when victims are Black. We hypothesize that lynchings accentuate the racial content of the victim’s name to patent examiners, who do not observe inventor race from patent applications. We interpret these findings as evidence of discrimination by patent examiners and provide evidence against alternative mechanisms.
Keywords:
discrimination; innovation; lynchings
Fulltext is available at external website.
Racial discrimination and lost innovation: evidence from US inventors, 1895–1925
How can racial discrimination harm innovation? We study this question using data on US inventors linked to population censuses in 1895-1925. Our novel identification strategy leverages plausibly ...
(Ne)zvyšování sociálních dávek v letech 2012–2023: přehled
Janský, Petr; Kolář, Daniel
2023 - Czech
V tomto přehledu mapujeme vývoj dávek sociálního charakteru v posledních deseti letech ve srovnání s vývojem inflace, průměrných mezd a starobních důchodů. Pokud má být zachována reálná kupní síla dávek, měl by jejich růst odpovídat alespoň inflaci. Pokud má úroveň sociálního zajištění držet krok s dlouhodobým ekonomickým vývojem, měla by se úroveň dávek zvyšovat zhruba tempem růstu mezd v ekonomice a objem výdajů na dávky zhruba tempem růstu HDP. In this overview, we map trends in the value of social benefits over the past ten years and compare them to trends in inflation, average salaries and old age pensions. If the real purchase power of benefits is to remain stable, they should be raised at least at the same rate as inflation. If we want social benefits to continue to provide the same level of financial security, keeping pace with economic developments in the long term, then their value should rise at approximately the same rate as the average salary, and spending on benefits should increase at approximately the same rate as GDP.
Keywords:
social benefits; real purchase power; inflation
Fulltext is available at external website.
(Ne)zvyšování sociálních dávek v letech 2012–2023: přehled
V tomto přehledu mapujeme vývoj dávek sociálního charakteru v posledních deseti letech ve srovnání s vývojem inflace, průměrných mezd a starobních důchodů. Pokud má být zachována reálná kupní síla ...
Quo vadis? Evidence on new firm-bank matching and firm performance following “sin” bank closures
Goncharenko, R.; Mamonov, Mikhail; Ongena, S.; Popova, S.; Turdyeva, N.
2023 - English
In this paper, we analyze how firms search for new lenders after a financial regulator forcibly closes their prior banks, and what happens to the firms’ performance during this transition period. In 2013, the Central Bank of Russia launched a large-scale bank closure policy and started detecting fraudulent (sin) banks and revoking their licenses. By 2020, two-thirds of all operating banks had been shuttered. We analyze this unique period in history using credit register data. First, we establish that before sin bank closures, there was no informational leakage and the borrowing firms remain unaffected. After the closures, there is a clear sorting pattern: poorly-performing firms rush to other (not-yet-detected) sin banks, while profitable firms transfer to financially solid banks. We find that the coupling of poorly-performing firms and not-yet-detected sin banks occurs more frequently when the two sin banks (the prior and the next lender) are commonly owned or when the local banking market is unconcentrated. Finally, we show that during the transition period (i.e., after the sin bank closures and before matching to new banks), poorly-performing firms shrink in size and experience a sharp decline in borrowings and market sales, whereas profitable firms strengthen in terms of employment, investment, and market sales. A potential mechanism involves credit risk underpricing by sin banks: we find that poorly-performing firms (especially commonly owned) received loans at lower interest rates than profitable firms prior to sin bank closures.
Keywords:
credit register; bank clean-up; regulatory forbearance
Fulltext is available at external website.
Quo vadis? Evidence on new firm-bank matching and firm performance following “sin” bank closures
In this paper, we analyze how firms search for new lenders after a financial regulator forcibly closes their prior banks, and what happens to the firms’ performance during this transition period. In ...
The price of war: macroeconomic and cross-sectional effects of sanctions on Russia
Mamonov, Mikhail; Pestova, Anna
2023 - English
How much do sanctions harm the sanctioned economy? We examine the case of Russia, which has faced three major waves of international sanctions over the last decade (in 2014, 2017, and 2022). In a VAR model of the Russian economy, we first apply sign restrictions to isolate shocks to international credit supply to proxy for the financial sanctions shocks. We provide a microeconomic foundation for the sign restriction approach by exploiting the syndicated loan deals in Russia. We then explore the effects of the overall sanctions shocks (financial, trade, technological, etc.) by employing a high-frequency identification (HFI) approach. Our HFI is based on each OFAC/EU sanction announcement and the associated daily changes in the yield-to-maturity of Russia’s US dollar-denominated sovereign bonds. Our macroeconomic estimates indicate that Russia’s GDP may have lost no more than 0.8% due to the financial sanctions shock, and up to 3.2% due to the overall sanctions shock cumulatively over the 2014–2015 period. In 2017, the respective effects are 0 and 0.5%, and in 2022, they are 8 and 12%. Our cross-sectional estimates show that the real income of richer households declines by 1.5–2.0% during the first year after the sanctions shock, whereas the real income of poorer households rises by 1.2% over the same period. Finally, we find that the real total revenue of large firms with high (low) TFPs declines by 2.2 (4.0)% during the first year after the sanctions shock, whereas the effects on small firms are close to zero. Overall, our results indicate heterogeneous effects of sanctions with richer households residing in big cities and larger firms with high TFPs being affected the most.
Keywords:
sanctions news shock; monetary policy; commodity terms-of-trade
Fulltext is available at external website.
The price of war: macroeconomic and cross-sectional effects of sanctions on Russia
How much do sanctions harm the sanctioned economy? We examine the case of Russia, which has faced three major waves of international sanctions over the last decade (in 2014, 2017, and 2022). In a VAR ...
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