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Matching to suppliers in the production network: an empirical framework
Alfaro-Ureña, A.; Zacchia, Paolo
2024 - English
This paper develops a framework for the empirical analysis of the determinants of input supplier choice on the extensive margin using firm-to-firm transaction data. Building on a theoretical model of production network formation, we characterize the assumptions that enable a transformation of the multinomial logit likelihood function from which the seller fixed effects, which encode the seller marginal costs, vanish. This transformation conditions, for each subnetwork restricted to one supplier industry, on the out-degree of sellers (a sufficient statistic for the seller fixed effect) and the in-degree of buyers (which is pinned down by technology and by “make-or-buy” decisions). This approach delivers a consistent estimator for the effect of dyadic explanatory variables, which in our model are interpreted as matching frictions, on the supplier choice probability. The estimator is easy to implement and in Monte Carlo simulations it outperforms alternatives based on group fixed effects. In an empirical application about the effect of a major Costa Rican infrastructural project on firm-to-firm connections, our approach yields estimates typically much smaller in magnitude than those from naive multinomial logit.
Keywords:
production network; supplier choice; conditional logit
Fulltext is available at external website.
Matching to suppliers in the production network: an empirical framework
This paper develops a framework for the empirical analysis of the determinants of input supplier choice on the extensive margin using firm-to-firm transaction data. Building on a theoretical model of ...
Disappearing stepping stones: technological change and career paths
Kashkarov, Daniil; Artemev, V.
2024 - English
Which career paths lead workers towards high-skilled non-routine cognitive occupations? Using PSID data, we show that, for a significant share of workers, a career path towards non-routine cognitive occupations goes through middle-skilled routine occupations, with the majority going through a subset of routine cognitive occupations. We then argue that the decline in employment in routine cognitive occupations due to routine-biased technological change can negatively affect the chances of younger cohorts joining high-skilled occupations. To test this hypothesis, we develop a structural occupational choice model that endogenously generates realistic career paths and estimate it using PSID data and job ad data from three major US outlets covering the period from 1940 to 2000. Our estimations suggest that, on average, 6% of workers ending up in non-routine cognitive occupations use routine cognitive occupations as stepping stones that allow them to maintain and accumulate human capital and experience relevant for later employment in high-skilled occupations. A fall in employment opportunities in routine cognitive occupations over the period of the most intensive routine-biased technological change led to at least 1.37 million lost high-skilled workers who got stuck in less skilled occupations.
Keywords:
routine-biased technological change; occupational choice; human capital
Fulltext is available at external website.
Disappearing stepping stones: technological change and career paths
Which career paths lead workers towards high-skilled non-routine cognitive occupations? Using PSID data, we show that, for a significant share of workers, a career path towards non-routine cognitive ...
Financial skills and search in the mortgage market
Cota, Marta; Šterc, Ante
2024 - English
Are households with low financial skills disadvantaged in the mortgage market? Using stochastic record linking, we construct a unique U.S. dataset encompassing a rich set of mortgage details and borrowers’ characteristics, including their objective financial literacy measure. We find that households with low financial literacy are up to 4% more likely to search less and lock in at 15-20 b.p. higher rates. Upon origination, unskilled borrowers face a 35-45% higher mortgage delinquency and end up with a 30% lower likelihood of refinancing. Overall, for a $100,000 loan, the potential losses from low financial literacy are more than $9,329 over the mortgage duration. To understand how financial education, more accessible mortgages, or mortgage rate changes affect households with low financial literacy, we formulate and calibrate a mortgage search model with heterogeneous search frictions and endogenous financial skills. Our model estimates show that search intensity and financial skill variations contribute to 55% and 10% of mortgage rate variations, respectively. We find that i) more accessible mortgages lead to a higher delinquency risk among low-skilled households, ii) financial education mitigates the adverse effects of increased accessibility, and iii) low mortgage rates favor high-skilled homeowners and, by reinforcing refinancing activity, deepen consumption differences across different financial skill levels.
Keywords:
mortgage refinancing; mortgage search; financial skills
Fulltext is available at external website.
Financial skills and search in the mortgage market
Are households with low financial skills disadvantaged in the mortgage market? Using stochastic record linking, we construct a unique U.S. dataset encompassing a rich set of mortgage details and ...
Rizika reformy doktorského studia
Grosman, Jiří; Jurajda, Štěpán; Münich, Daniel
2024 - Czech
Systém financování doktorského studia v České republice je dlouhodobě neefektivní. Dokončovaná reforma má za cíl efektivitu systému výrazně zvýšit. V tomto krátkém textu upozorňujeme na potenciální problémy spojené s rozdělováním veřejné finanční podpory doktorského studia mezi vysoké školy. Problematické by bylo rozdělování podpory založené dominantně na míře úspěšného dokončování studií. Alokace veřejné podpory doktorského studia by vedle opodstatněných národních oborových priorit měla zohledňovat výsledky hodnocení kvality vědy na vysokých školách a úspěšnost v kariérním umisťování absolventů. The system of financing doctoral studies in the Czech Republic has long been inefficient. A reform currently underway aims to significantly increase the efficiency of the system. In this short text, we draw attention to potential problems associated with the distribution of public financial support for doctoral studies among universities. It would be problematic to distribute support based predominantly on degree completion rates. Allocation of public support for doctoral studies should take into account the results of evaluations of the quality of science produced by universities and their success in career placement of graduates, in addition to justifiable national disciplinary priorities.
Keywords:
doctoral studies; public financial support; Czech Republic
Fulltext is available at external website.
Rizika reformy doktorského studia
Systém financování doktorského studia v České republice je dlouhodobě neefektivní. Dokončovaná reforma má za cíl efektivitu systému výrazně zvýšit. V tomto krátkém textu upozorňujeme na potenciální ...
Inflation expectations in the wake of the war in Ukraine
Afunts, Geghetsik; Cato, M.; Schmidt, T.
2023 - English
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is posing a range of new challenges to the global economy, including affecting the inflation expectations of individuals. In this paper, we aim to quantify the effect of the invasion on short- and long-term inflation expectations of individuals in Germany. We use microdata from the Bundesbank Online Panel - Households (BOP-HH), for the period from February 15th to March 29th, 2022. Treating the unanticipated start of the war in Ukraine on the 24th of February 2022 as a natural experiment, we find that both short- and long-term inflation expectations increased as an immediate result of the invasion. Long-term inflation expectations increased by around 0.4 percentage points, while the impact on short-term inflation expectations was more than twice as large - around one percentage point. Looking into the possible mechanisms of this increase, we suggest that it can be partially attributed to individuals’ fears of soaring energy prices and increasing pessimism about economic trends in general. Our results indicate that large economic shocks can have a substantial impact on both short and long-term inflation expectations.
Keywords:
inflation expectations; Russian invasion of Ukraine; survey
Fulltext is available at external website.
Inflation expectations in the wake of the war in Ukraine
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is posing a range of new challenges to the global economy, including affecting the inflation expectations of individuals. In this paper, we aim to quantify the effect of ...
Ruce a mozky českých žen stále nevyužity
Grossmann, Jakub; Münich, Daniel
2023 - Czech
Tato analýza mapuje celoživotní profily míry zaměstnanosti a odpracované doby Češek a změny za posledních dvacet let. Klíčová zjištění jsou popsána formou komentovaných grafů. Ekonomické a statistické detaily jsou popsány v doprovodných textech. This analysis maps life-long profiles in the unemployment rate and hours worked by Czech women and changes in these over the past twenty years. Its key findings are presented in the form of graphs with commentary. The economic and statistic details are provided in the accompanying texts.
Keywords:
labour market; women; Czech Republic
Fulltext is available at external website.
Ruce a mozky českých žen stále nevyužity
Tato analýza mapuje celoživotní profily míry zaměstnanosti a odpracované doby Češek a změny za posledních dvacet let. Klíčová zjištění jsou popsána formou komentovaných grafů. Ekonomické a statistické ...
Vývoj postojů české veřejnosti k válečným uprchlíkům z Ukrajiny
Münich, Daniel; Protivínský, Tomáš
2023 - Czech
Po vojenském útoku Ruska na Ukrajinu koncem února 2022 v Česku převládla atmosféra solidarity a většina Čechů přijímání válečných uprchlíků podporovala. Tato podpora do konce listopadu klesla zhruba o čtvrtinu. Podobně se zhoršovala vnímaná míra integrace Ukrajinců do české společnosti. Změna postojů české společnosti v čase však nevycházela primárně z osobní zkušenosti a z prožitého příchodu uprchlíků, ale souvisela spíše s postupně opadávajícím zájmem po vypuknutí konfliktu a prvotním šoku. Ačkoli se integrace Ukrajinců v některých dimenzích ve druhé polovině roku 2022 reálně zlepšila, například ve školách nebo na trhu práce, do vnímání české společnosti se tyto dílčí pokroky nepromítly. In the wake of Russia’s military assault on Ukraine at the end of February 2022, an atmosphere of solidarity prevailed in the Czech Republic and most of the Czech population supported the country’s intake of war refugees. By the end of November 2022, that support had fallen by approximately one quarter. Czechs’ perceptions of how well integrated Ukrainians were into Czech society worsened similarly. This change in Czech public attitudes over time did not, however, stem primarily from personal or first hand experience of welcoming refugees, rather, it was related to a gradual decrease in public interest in the conflict after the initial shock of it first beginning. Although several aspects of Ukrainian refugees’ integration improved in real terms in the second half of 2022, for example in relation to schools and to the labour market, this progress was not reflected in Czech public opinion.
Keywords:
Ukrainian refugees; views and attitudes; Czech Republic
Fulltext is available at external website.
Vývoj postojů české veřejnosti k válečným uprchlíkům z Ukrajiny
Po vojenském útoku Ruska na Ukrajinu koncem února 2022 v Česku převládla atmosféra solidarity a většina Čechů přijímání válečných uprchlíků podporovala. Tato podpora do konce listopadu klesla zhruba o ...
Snížila by větší bytová výstavba cenový růst nemovitostí v letech 2013–2021? Pravděpodobně ne
Šustek, R.; Zapletalová, Lucie
2023 - Czech
Tato studie představuje snadno aplikovatelnou metodu pro studium vývoje cen rezidenčních nemovitostí a faktorů, které je ovlivňují. Obsahem studie je popis základní logiky metody, výsledky jejího použití k analýze růstu cen nemovitostí v ČR v letech 2013–2021 a výsledky analýzy možných budoucích scénářů. This study presents an easily applicable method for the study of price trends in residential property markets and the factors that affect them. The study describes the basic reasoning behind the method and presents results of using it to analyse house price increases in the Czech Republic during the period of 2013-2021, and to analyse various future housing market scenarios.
Keywords:
residential property markets; house prices; Czech Republic
Fulltext is available at external website.
Snížila by větší bytová výstavba cenový růst nemovitostí v letech 2013–2021? Pravděpodobně ne
Tato studie představuje snadno aplikovatelnou metodu pro studium vývoje cen rezidenčních nemovitostí a faktorů, které je ovlivňují. Obsahem studie je popis základní logiky metody, výsledky jejího ...
Generace X a Y očima dat: když byli rodiče mladí jako my
Peňázová, Eva; Šoltés, Michal
2023 - Czech
Studie představuje unikátní srovnání současného života generace Y, tzv. mileniálů (narozeni 1981–1996), s generací X jejich rodičů (narozeni 1965–1980) na základě dostupných statistik týkajících se úrovně vzdělanosti, partnerských vztahů či relativních výdělků. This study presents a unique comparison of the lives of generation Y (millennials, born in 1981–1996) and those of generation X (their parents, born in 1965–1980) at the same age, based on available statistics related to education levels, relationships, and relative earnings.\n
Keywords:
generation Y; generation X; income and living conditions
Fulltext is available at external website.
Generace X a Y očima dat: když byli rodiče mladí jako my
Studie představuje unikátní srovnání současného života generace Y, tzv. mileniálů (narozeni 1981–1996), s generací X jejich rodičů (narozeni 1965–1980) na základě dostupných statistik týkajících se ...
Professional survey forecasts and expectations in DSGE models
Rychalovska, Y.; Slobodyan, Sergey; Wouters, R.
2023 - English
In this paper, we demonstrate the usefulness of survey data for macroeconomic analysis and propose a strategy to integrate and efficiently utilize information from surveys in the DSGE setup. We extend the set of observable variables to include the data on consumption, investment, output, and inflation expectations, as measured by the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). By doing so, we aim to discipline the dynamics of model-based expectations and evaluate alternative belief models. Our approach to exploit the timely information from surveys is based on re-specification of structural shocks into persistent and transitory components. Due to the SPF, we are able to improve identification of fundamental shocks and predictive power of the model by separating the sources of low and high frequency volatility. Furthermore, we show that models with an imperfectly-rational expectation formation mechanism based on Adaptive Learning (AL) can reduce important limitations implied by the Rational Expectation (RE) hypothesis. More specifically, our models based on belief updating can better capture macroeconomic trend shifts and, as a result, achieve superior long-term predictions. In addition, the AL mechanism can produce realistic time variation in the transmission of shocks and perceived macro-economic volatility, which allows the model to better explain the investment dynamics. Finally, AL models, which relax the RE constraint of internal consistency between the agents’ and model forecasts, can reproduce the main features of agents’ predictions in line with SPF evidence and, at the same time, can generate improved model forecasts, thus diminishing possible inefficiencies present in surveys.
Keywords:
expectations; survey data; adaptive learning
Fulltext is available at external website.
Professional survey forecasts and expectations in DSGE models
In this paper, we demonstrate the usefulness of survey data for macroeconomic analysis and propose a strategy to integrate and efficiently utilize information from surveys in the DSGE setup. We extend ...
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