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The price of war: macroeconomic and cross-sectional effects of sanctions on Russia
Mamonov, Mikhail; Pestova, Anna
2023 - English
How much do sanctions harm the sanctioned economy? We examine the case of Russia, which has faced three major waves of international sanctions over the last decade (in 2014, 2017, and 2022). In a VAR model of the Russian economy, we first apply sign restrictions to isolate shocks to international credit supply to proxy for the financial sanctions shocks. We provide a microeconomic foundation for the sign restriction approach by exploiting the syndicated loan deals in Russia. We then explore the effects of the overall sanctions shocks (financial, trade, technological, etc.) by employing a high-frequency identification (HFI) approach. Our HFI is based on each OFAC/EU sanction announcement and the associated daily changes in the yield-to-maturity of Russia’s US dollar-denominated sovereign bonds. Our macroeconomic estimates indicate that Russia’s GDP may have lost no more than 0.8% due to the financial sanctions shock, and up to 3.2% due to the overall sanctions shock cumulatively over the 2014–2015 period. In 2017, the respective effects are 0 and 0.5%, and in 2022, they are 8 and 12%. Our cross-sectional estimates show that the real income of richer households declines by 1.5–2.0% during the first year after the sanctions shock, whereas the real income of poorer households rises by 1.2% over the same period. Finally, we find that the real total revenue of large firms with high (low) TFPs declines by 2.2 (4.0)% during the first year after the sanctions shock, whereas the effects on small firms are close to zero. Overall, our results indicate heterogeneous effects of sanctions with richer households residing in big cities and larger firms with high TFPs being affected the most.
Keywords:
sanctions news shock; monetary policy; commodity terms-of-trade
Fulltext is available at external website.
The price of war: macroeconomic and cross-sectional effects of sanctions on Russia
How much do sanctions harm the sanctioned economy? We examine the case of Russia, which has faced three major waves of international sanctions over the last decade (in 2014, 2017, and 2022). In a VAR ...
Reforma sociálních odvodů OSVČ: vstupní analýza
Prokop, D.; Pertold, Filip
2023 - Czech
Studie analyzuje dopady celkem tří variant. Vládní varianta byla představena 11. 5. spolu s dalšími změnami v rámci tzv. konsolidačního balíčku. Výzkumníci z PAQ a IDEA dodávají vylepšenou vládní variantu, která optimalizuje zveřejněný návrh, a poté ideální podobu reformy. Ideální varianta PAQ + IDEA počítá se zrušením paušální daně a revizí paušálních výdajů. Nezhoršuje pozici nízkopříjmových OSVČ s reálnými náklady (zejména řemeslníci), zároveň omezuje zvýhodnění vysokopříjmových OSVČ s malými náklady. Vede k narovnání nerovností mezi samotnými OSVČ i mezi zaměstnanci a OSVČ, snižuje motivaci ke švarcsystému. Otevírá prostor pro reformu zdanění zaměstnanců (jejíž podobu jsme navrhli v předchozí studii). Pomáhá konsolidovat rozpočet a brání budoucí sociální krizi, kterou by způsobily nízké důchody pro statisíce živnostníků. The study analyses the impacts of a total of three variants. The government variant was presented on 11 May together with other changes under the so-called consolidation package. Researchers from PAQ and IDEA come up with an improved government variant that optimises the published proposal, and then with the ideal form of reform. The ideal PAQ + IDEA variant envisages the abolition of the flat tax and the revision of the flat expenditure. It does not worsen the position of low-income self-employed with real costs (especially artisans), while limiting the advantage of high-income self-employed with small costs. It leads to a levelling of inequalities between self-employed workers themselves and between employees and self-employed workers, reducing the incentive to false self-employment. It opens up space for reform of employee taxation (the form of which we proposed in a previous study). It helps consolidate the budget and prevents a future social crisis caused by low pensions for hundreds of thousands of self-employed workers.
Keywords:
self-employed workers; taxation reform; social security
Fulltext is available at external website.
Reforma sociálních odvodů OSVČ: vstupní analýza
Studie analyzuje dopady celkem tří variant. Vládní varianta byla představena 11. 5. spolu s dalšími změnami v rámci tzv. konsolidačního balíčku. Výzkumníci z PAQ a IDEA dodávají vylepšenou vládní ...
Disclosure discrimination: an experiment focusing on communication in the hiring process
Badalyan, S.; Korlyakova, Darya; Rehák, Rastislav
2023 - English
We focus on communication among hiring team members and document the existence of discrimination in the disclosure of information about candidates. In particular, we conduct an online experiment with a nationally representative sample of Czech individuals who act as human resource assistants and hiring managers in our online labor market. The main novel feature of our experiment is the monitoring of information flow between human resource assistants and hiring managers. We exogenously manipulate candidates’ names to explore the causal effects of their gender and nationality on information that assistants select for managers. Our findings reveal that assistants disclose more information about family and less information about work for female candidates relative to male candidates. An in-depth analysis of the disclosed information suggests that gender stereotypes play an important role in this disclosure discrimination. Furthermore, assistants disclose less information about foreigners overall. This effect appears to be driven by the less attention assistants are willing to devote to the CVs of foreigners, measured by the extra effort to learn more about the candidates.
Keywords:
information; disclosure; hiring
Fulltext is available at external website.
Disclosure discrimination: an experiment focusing on communication in the hiring process
We focus on communication among hiring team members and document the existence of discrimination in the disclosure of information about candidates. In particular, we conduct an online experiment with ...
Racial discrimination and lost innovation: evidence from US inventors, 1895–1925
Coluccia, D. M.; Dossi, G.; Ottinger, Sebastian
2023 - English
How can racial discrimination harm innovation? We study this question using data on US inventors linked to population censuses in 1895-1925. Our novel identification strategy leverages plausibly exogenous variation in the timing of lynchings and the name of the victims. We find an immediate and persistent decrease in patents granted to inventors who share their names with the victims of lynchings, but only when victims are Black. We hypothesize that lynchings accentuate the racial content of the victim’s name to patent examiners, who do not observe inventor race from patent applications. We interpret these findings as evidence of discrimination by patent examiners and provide evidence against alternative mechanisms.
Keywords:
discrimination; innovation; lynchings
Fulltext is available at external website.
Racial discrimination and lost innovation: evidence from US inventors, 1895–1925
How can racial discrimination harm innovation? We study this question using data on US inventors linked to population censuses in 1895-1925. Our novel identification strategy leverages plausibly ...
(Ne)zvyšování sociálních dávek v letech 2012–2023: přehled
Janský, Petr; Kolář, Daniel
2023 - Czech
V tomto přehledu mapujeme vývoj dávek sociálního charakteru v posledních deseti letech ve srovnání s vývojem inflace, průměrných mezd a starobních důchodů. Pokud má být zachována reálná kupní síla dávek, měl by jejich růst odpovídat alespoň inflaci. Pokud má úroveň sociálního zajištění držet krok s dlouhodobým ekonomickým vývojem, měla by se úroveň dávek zvyšovat zhruba tempem růstu mezd v ekonomice a objem výdajů na dávky zhruba tempem růstu HDP. In this overview, we map trends in the value of social benefits over the past ten years and compare them to trends in inflation, average salaries and old age pensions. If the real purchase power of benefits is to remain stable, they should be raised at least at the same rate as inflation. If we want social benefits to continue to provide the same level of financial security, keeping pace with economic developments in the long term, then their value should rise at approximately the same rate as the average salary, and spending on benefits should increase at approximately the same rate as GDP.
Keywords:
social benefits; real purchase power; inflation
Fulltext is available at external website.
(Ne)zvyšování sociálních dávek v letech 2012–2023: přehled
V tomto přehledu mapujeme vývoj dávek sociálního charakteru v posledních deseti letech ve srovnání s vývojem inflace, průměrných mezd a starobních důchodů. Pokud má být zachována reálná kupní síla ...
Quantitative easing in the euro area: implications for income and wealth inequality
Stojanović, Dušan
2023 - English
This study examines how and to what extent quantitative easing of the ECB affects household income and wealth inequality in the euro area. Previous theoretical models have investigated the dynamics of inequality measures through differential access of households to financial/capital market (the portfolio rebalancing channel), neglecting the labor market differential (the earnings heterogeneity channel). Although the portfolio rebalancing channel may provide insight into wealth inequality and non-labor income inequality, this is not the case with labor (and thus total) income inequality. To be in line with the empirical evidence on labor income inequality, this study also considers segmented labor market on the basis of capital-skill complementarity in production and asymmetric real wage rigidities. When only financial market segmentation is considered, the quantitative results indicate a drop in total income inequality that is diminished over time, while wealth inequality experiences a rise that gradually becomes weaker. The introduction of the segmented labor market significantly mitigates the observed drop in total income inequality, while a rise in wealth inequality is largely amplified. Given the possible broadening of the ECB’s mandate towards distributional issues in the future, the analysis of segmented labor and financial markets can be more beneficial to the ECB as it provides a clearer picture of the inequality effects.
Keywords:
quantitative easing; capital-skill complementarity; asymmetric real wage rigidity
Fulltext is available at external website.
Quantitative easing in the euro area: implications for income and wealth inequality
This study examines how and to what extent quantitative easing of the ECB affects household income and wealth inequality in the euro area. Previous theoretical models have investigated the dynamics of ...
Dopady exekucí a nezaměstnanosti na podporu krajní pravice, levice a populismu v České republice v letech 2001–2017
Grossmann, Jakub; Jurajda, Štěpán; Zapletalová, Lucie
2023 - Czech
Ve studii analyzujeme vztahy mezi zvýšeným výskytem exekucí a volební podporou populistických politických stran a stran extrémní levice a pravice na úrovni obcí. In this study, we analyze the relationships between rising rates of distraint orders and electoral support for populist political parties and extreme left and right wing political parties at the local level.
Keywords:
distraint orders; electoral behaviour; populist political parties
Fulltext is available at external website.
Dopady exekucí a nezaměstnanosti na podporu krajní pravice, levice a populismu v České republice v letech 2001–2017
Ve studii analyzujeme vztahy mezi zvýšeným výskytem exekucí a volební podporou populistických politických stran a stran extrémní levice a pravice na úrovni obcí....
Přijímačky na střední školy: promyšlený mechanismus nebo velká národní loterie?
Protivínský, Tomáš
2023 - Czech
Průběh přijímaček na střední školy na jaře 2023 naplno odhalil více i méně známé nedostatky zavedeného systému. V kombinaci se silným populačním ročníkem a velkým nesouladem mezi strukturou nabídky a poptávky uvrhl systém mnoho dětí a jejich rodičů do zbytečně velké nejistoty ohledně dalšího vzdělání. Přestože se naprostá většina uchazečů na nějakou střední školu nakonec dostala, zavedený mechanismus párování uchazečů a škol vede k neefektivitám a nespravedlnostem. Při výběru škol systém žáky a rodiče nutí strategizovat, systém znevýhodňuje děti méně informovaných a méně sofistikovaně uvažujících rodičů a dlouhodobě tak přispívá k vysokým nerovnostem v přístupu ke vzdělání v zemi. Systém zároveň generuje velmi zkreslené informace o struktuře poptávky, což komplikuje řízení systému. Na jaro 2024 je proto plánována zásadní změna přijímacího řízení. Očekává se, že by měla odstranit alespoň některé z hlavních problémů. Elektronická přihláška by měla proces zjednodušit, žáci si budou moci vybírat místo dvou škol školy tři. Prioritní řazení škol by pak mělo umožnit automatický zápis přijatých do škol. Mělo by se také minimalizovat chaotické období druhého kola, kdy se žáci nezapsaní v kole prvním hlásí na uvolněná místa. The spring 2023 secondary school admissions process has fully revealed the shortcomings of the established admissions system. The combination of a baby boom and a large mismatch between the structure of supply and demand, the system has left many children\nand their parents unnecessarily uncertain about secondary education. Although the vast majority of applicants eventually get into a secondary school, the mechanism in place to match applicants with schools is inefficient and inequitable. The system forces students\nand parents to strategize ways to select schools, and disadvantages children of less informed and less sophisticated parents, contributing to high inequalities in access to education over the long term. The system also generates highly skewed information on the structure of demand, which complicates management of admissions. A major change in the admissions procedure is therefore planned for spring 2024. It is expected to eliminate at least some of the main problems. Electronic application should simplify the process, and will allow pupils to apply to three schools instead of two. Prioritization of schools should then allow for automatic enrollment of those admitted. It should also minimize the chaotic second round period when pupils who are not enrolled in the first round apply for vacant places.
Keywords:
secondary school admissions; Czech Republic
Fulltext is available at external website.
Přijímačky na střední školy: promyšlený mechanismus nebo velká národní loterie?
Průběh přijímaček na střední školy na jaře 2023 naplno odhalil více i méně známé nedostatky zavedeného systému. V kombinaci se silným populačním ročníkem a velkým nesouladem mezi strukturou nabídky a ...
Social ties at work and effort choice: experimental evidence from Tanzania
Chegere, M.; Falco, P.; Menzel, Andreas
2023 - English
Many firms hire workers via social networks. Whether workers who are socially connected to their employers exert more effort on the job is an unsettled debate. We address this question through a novel experiment with small-business owners in Tanzania. Participants are paired with a worker who conducts a real-effort task, and receive a payoff that depends on the worker’s effort. Some business owners are randomly paired with workers they are socially connected with, while others are paired with strangers. With a design that is sufficiently powered to detect economically meaningful effects, we find that being socially connected to one’s employer does not affect workers’ effort.\n
Keywords:
firms; hiring; productivity
Fulltext is available at external website.
Social ties at work and effort choice: experimental evidence from Tanzania
Many firms hire workers via social networks. Whether workers who are socially connected to their employers exert more effort on the job is an unsettled debate. We address this question through a novel ...
Human capital affects religious identity: causal evidence from Kenya
Alfonsi, L.; Bauer, Michal; Chytilová, Julie; Miguel, E.
2023 - English
We study how human capital and economic conditions causally affect the choice of religious denomination. We utilize a longitudinal dataset monitoring the religious history of more than 5,000 Kenyans over twenty years, in tandem with a randomized experiment (deworming) that has exogenously boosted education and living standards. The main finding is that the program reduces the likelihood of membership in a Pentecostal denomination up to 20 years later when respondents are in their mid-thirties, while there is a comparable increase in membership in traditional Christian denominations. The effect is concentrated and statistically significant among a sub-group of participants who benefited most from the program in terms of increased education and income. The effects are unlikely due to increased secularization, because the program does not reduce measures of religiosity. The results help explain why the global growth of the Pentecostal movement, sometimes described a “New Reformation”, is centered in low-income communities.
Keywords:
human capital; economic conditions; religious denomination
Fulltext is available at external website.
Human capital affects religious identity: causal evidence from Kenya
We study how human capital and economic conditions causally affect the choice of religious denomination. We utilize a longitudinal dataset monitoring the religious history of more than 5,000 Kenyans ...
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