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Analýza výdajů státního rozpočtu 2024 ve světle předkrizového roku 2019
Janský, Petr; Kolář, Daniel
2023 - Czech
Naše analýza srovnává návrh státního rozpočtu na rok 2024 schválený vládou s výsledky státního rozpočtu v roce 2019. Mezidobí tedy zahrnuje dvě zásadní události — koronavirus a agresi Ruska na Ukrajině — s řadou významných ekonomických dopadů. Procentní nárůsty klíčových výdajů státního rozpočtu poměřujeme s nárůstem cenové hladiny o 40,6 % a nominálního hrubého domácího produktu (HDP) o 33,9 % za stejné období 2019–2024. Srovnání s inflací je určující pro změnu reálné hodnoty výdajů, srovnání s nárůstem HDP ukazuje změnu podílu výdajů na HDP. Our analysis compares the 2024 state budget proposal approved by the government with 2019 state budget results. The interim period includes two major events with a number of significant economic impacts - the coronavirus and Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. We compare the percentage increases in key state budget expenditures with the 40.6% increase in prices and the 33.9% increase in nominal gross domestic product (GDP) over the same period, 2019-2024. Comparison that takes inflation into account is indicative of the change in the real value of spending, while comparison accounting for GDP growth shows the change in the shares of spending in GDP.
Keywords:
budget proposal; budget expenditures; Czech Republic
Fulltext is available at external website.
Analýza výdajů státního rozpočtu 2024 ve světle předkrizového roku 2019
Naše analýza srovnává návrh státního rozpočtu na rok 2024 schválený vládou s výsledky státního rozpočtu v roce 2019. Mezidobí tedy zahrnuje dvě zásadní události — koronavirus a agresi Ruska na ...
Jak zachránit státní rozpočet a napravit nedostatky v danění příjmů? Modelování dopadů změn daně z příjmu fyzických osob (zaměstnanců)
Prokop, D.; Kalíšková, Klára; Šoltés, Michal; Münich, Daniel; Ostrý, M.
2023 - Czech
Strukturální deficit státního rozpočtu je z části tvořen výpadkem daňových příjmů za cca 150 miliard Kč od roku 2020. Pro stabilizaci veřejných financí je třeba kromě reforem výdajů zacelit maximum těchto daňových ztrát. Příjmy lze ale posilovat i jinak než zdaněním zaměstnanců. Jinými typy daní lze odhadem vybrat 70 až 115 miliard Kč. Navržené změny DPFO (daň z příjmu fyzických osob) tak musí dorovnávat očekávaný výběr z dalších zdrojů a reagovat na další specifika nastavení daně z příjmu v ČR. Tím je mimo jiné malá progrese a existence řady slev, které nemohou plně čerpat lidé s nižšími příjmy. To vede k relativně vysokému zatížení nízkopříjmových zaměstnanců při omezeném výběru DPFO. The structural deficit of the state budget is partly made up of a shortfall in tax revenues of about CZK 150 billion from 2020 onwards. In order to stabilize public finances, in addition to spending reforms, the maximum of these tax losses must be recovered. However, revenue can be strengthened also in other ways than by taxing employees. An estimated CZK 70 to 115 billion can be raised through other types of taxes. The proposed changes to the personal income tax (PIT) must therefore balance the expected collection from other sources and respond to other specificities of the income tax set-up in the Czech Republic. These include, among others, the small progression and the existence of a number of discounts that cannot be fully used by people with lower incomes. This leads to a relatively high burden on low-income employees with limited collection of the PTI.
Keywords:
state budget; income tax; Czech Republic
Fulltext is available at external website.
Jak zachránit státní rozpočet a napravit nedostatky v danění příjmů? Modelování dopadů změn daně z příjmu fyzických osob (zaměstnanců)
Strukturální deficit státního rozpočtu je z části tvořen výpadkem daňových příjmů za cca 150 miliard Kč od roku 2020. Pro stabilizaci veřejných financí je třeba kromě reforem výdajů zacelit maximum ...
Pracovně motivační dopady návrhů daňových změn na zaměstnance
Kalíšková, Klára; Münich, Daniel; Šoltés, Michal
2023 - Czech
V této studii analyzujeme dopady změn daní a povinných odvodů zaměstnanců, tak jak je navrhuje vládní konsolidační balíček představený v květnu 2023. Detailně se věnujeme i dopadům omezení slevy na manžela či manželku s nízkými příjmy. Zatímco existující analýzy se soustředí především na vyčíslení přerozdělovacích efektů a dopadů na daňový výnos, naše analýza sleduje i proměnu motivací k práci, tedy motivace pracovat či nepracovat a motivace pracovat více nebo méně. Ukazujeme, jak návrh změní průměrné, mezní a participační daňové sazby. Zatímco průměrná daňová sazba vypovídá o daňovém zatížení příjmů a říká, jaká část nákladů práce je odváděna ve formě daní a odvodů, další dva ukazatele souvisejí s motivací pracovat. Mezní daňová sazba popisuje motivaci pracovat více nebo méně hodin a participační daňová sazba motivaci k participaci na trhu práce (nebo naopak k odchodu z něj). Poskytujeme tedy tzv. ex ante analýzu očekávaných dopadů vládního balíčku na míru zdanění různých skupin obyvatel a jejich pracovní motivace. Ex post analýzu behaviorálních efektů tohoto balíčku, tedy jeho dopadů na participaci na trhu práce nebo počet odpracovaných hodin, přirozeně není možné provést před samotnou implementací daňových opatření. In this study, we analyse the impact of the changes to taxes and compulsory contributions for employees as proposed in the government's consolidation package unveiled in May 2023. We also look in detail at the impact of the restrictions on the low-income spouse allowance. While existing analyses focus primarily on quantifying redistributive effects and the impact on tax revenue, our analysis also looks at the transformation of incentives to work, i.e., incentives to work or not work and incentives to work more or less. We show how the proposal will change average, marginal and participation tax rates. While the average tax rate tells us about the tax burden on income and how much of the cost of labour is paid in taxes and levies, the other two indicators are related to the incentive to work. The marginal tax rate describes the incentive to work more or fewer hours, and the participation tax rate the incentive to participate in (or leave) the labour market. We thus provide an ex ante analysis of the expected effects of the government package on the tax rates of different groups of the population and their work motivation. Ex post analysis of the behavioural effects of this package, i.e. its impact on labour market participation or the number of hours worked, is naturally not possible before the actual implementation of the tax measures.
Keywords:
tax system; TAXBEN model; income tax
Fulltext is available at external website.
Pracovně motivační dopady návrhů daňových změn na zaměstnance
V této studii analyzujeme dopady změn daní a povinných odvodů zaměstnanců, tak jak je navrhuje vládní konsolidační balíček představený v květnu 2023. Detailně se věnujeme i dopadům omezení slevy na ...
Extrapolative income expectations and retirement savings
Cota, Marta
2023 - English
Why do employees’ retirement contributions gradually increase throughout their careers? This paper uses a structural life-cycle model based on household expectations data to explain workers’ retirement contribution decisions. The Michigan Survey of Consumers data shows that young households extrapolate from their recent income realizations and overstate the persistence and volatility of their future income. The structural life-cycle model with extrapolative expectations quantifies the difference in retirement contribution rates compared to rational expectations. Contrary to rational workers, extrapolative workers’ contributions match the data on retirement contributions over the life cycle. Consequently, mandating automatic enrollment yields negligible effects on retirement savings.
Keywords:
extrapolative expectations; forecast errors; illiquid savings
Fulltext is available at external website.
Extrapolative income expectations and retirement savings
Why do employees’ retirement contributions gradually increase throughout their careers? This paper uses a structural life-cycle model based on household expectations data to explain workers’ ...
Do pessimistic expectations about discrimination make minorities withdraw their effort? Causal evidence
Korlyakova, Darya
2022 - English
There is a long-standing concern that expected discrimination discourages minorities from exercising effort to succeed. Effort withdrawal could contribute to confirming negative stereotypes about minorities’ productivity and enduring disparities. This paper extends the findings of correlational research by exogenously manipulating individuals’ beliefs about discrimination against their group and exploring a causal link between perceived discrimination and individuals’ labor market behavior. For this purpose, we conduct an online experiment in the US with a diverse sample of 2,000 African Americans. We randomly assign individuals to two groups and inform one group about the frequency of discrimination against African Americans in a previous survey. To study the information effects on effort, we subsequently measure participants’ results on a math task. We document that most individuals initially overestimate discrimination against African Americans. The overestimation decreases strongly and significantly as a result of information provision. At the same time, treated individuals, males in particular, attempt and solve correctly fewer math problems compared to untreated individuals. Hence, our findings do not support the common concern that minorities’ inflated expectations about discrimination induce them to underperform.
Keywords:
perceived discrimination; racial minorities; effort
Fulltext is available at external website.
Do pessimistic expectations about discrimination make minorities withdraw their effort? Causal evidence
There is a long-standing concern that expected discrimination discourages minorities from exercising effort to succeed. Effort withdrawal could contribute to confirming negative stereotypes about ...
Information, perceived returns and college major choices
Kudashvili, Nikoloz; Todua, Gega
2022 - English
Students may hold inaccurate beliefs about earnings and employment opportunities when making their education decisions. This paper analyzes the effects of information provision on student’s intended and actual college major choices in Georgia. Secondary school students in our experiment systematically overestimated the earnings and unemployment rates of college graduates. We find that 10 percent more students who received information on actual earnings and unemployment changed their actual college major choices than others. The changes in their majors are partly driven by differences in the perceived and actual unemployment rates, whereas the earning differences do not appear to play a role. We also estimate spillover effects on students who do not receive information directly, and show that they matter, but only for older students who are closer to high school graduation. Importantly, we find that the immediate changes in the intended choices are not linked to the final major choices, suggesting that measuring the effects of information on immediately expressed intentions may not be sufficient to understand how information affects actual real-life decisions. We find that both direct and indirect information provision have sizable effects on student college major choices.
Keywords:
college major; perceived unemployment; perceived earnings
Fulltext is available at external website.
Information, perceived returns and college major choices
Students may hold inaccurate beliefs about earnings and employment opportunities when making their education decisions. This paper analyzes the effects of information provision on student’s intended ...
Social networks and surviving the Holocaust
Bělín, M.; Jelínek, T.; Jurajda, Štěpán
2022 - English
Survivor testimonies link survival in deadly POW camps, Gulags, and Nazi concentration camps to the formation of close friendships with other prisoners. We provide statistical evidence consistent with these fundamentally selective testimonies. We study the survival of the 140 thousand Jews who entered the Theresienstadt ghetto, where 33 thousand died and from where over 80 thousand were sent to extermination camps. We ask whether an individual’s social status prior to deportation, and the availability of potential friends among fellow prisoners influenced the risk of death in Theresienstadt, the ability to avoid transports to the camps, and the chances of surviving Auschwitz. Pre-deportation social status protected prisoners in the self-administered society of the Theresienstadt ghetto, but it was no longer helpful in the extreme conditions of the Auschwitz-Birkenau concentration camp. Relying on multiple proxies of pre-existing social networks, we uncover a significant survival advantage to entering Auschwitz with a group of potential friends.
Keywords:
social status; social networks; Holocaust survival
Fulltext is available at external website.
Social networks and surviving the Holocaust
Survivor testimonies link survival in deadly POW camps, Gulags, and Nazi concentration camps to the formation of close friendships with other prisoners. We provide statistical evidence consistent with ...
Rozdíly v přísnosti známkování žáků a dopady na vzdělanostní aspirace
Münich, Daniel; Protivínský, Tomáš
2022 - Czech
Pro žáky a jejich rodiče představují známky ve škole klíčovou informaci formující i vzdělávací a kariérní ambice. 87 % žáků devátých ročníků s jedničkou z matematiky chce vystudovat vysokou školu. Mezi žáky s trojkou chce na VŠ jen 39 %. Mezi základními školami panují v přísnosti známkování velké rozdíly. Klasifikace žáků se stejnými akademickými výsledky se mezi školami liší v průměru o celý klasifikační stupeň. Při stejných dovednostech mají žáci z přísně známkujících škol nižší studijní ambice oproti žákům z mírně známkujících škol. Známky na vysvědčení také často představují jedno z přijímacích kritérií na středních školách a víceletých gymnáziích. Rozdíly v přísnosti známkování a zásadní role známek při plánování budoucí vzdělávací dráhy mohou tedy vést k chybným rozhodnutím žáků a rodičů, neefektivitám ve vzdělávacím systému a k suboptimální alokaci talentů. For students and their parents, school grades are a key piece of information that helps to shape educational and career ambitions. We find that 87% of Czech ninth graders with an A in mathematics want to go to university. Among students with a C, only 39% have the same aspiration. There is wide variation in the strictness of grading across Czech primary schools. On average, grades awarded can differ by as much as a full letter grade between stricter and more moderately grading schools. Even when they in fact have measurably equivalent skills, students from schools that grade more strictly have lower academic aspirations than students from schools that grade more moderately. Grades on report cards are also often among the admissions criteria for secondary schools and high schools. Differences in the strictness of grading and the crucial roles of grades in planning future educational paths can therefore lead to misguided decisions by students and parents, inefficiencies in the education system, and suboptimal allocation of talent.
Keywords:
primary schools; school grades; Czech Republic
Fulltext is available at external website.
Rozdíly v přísnosti známkování žáků a dopady na vzdělanostní aspirace
Pro žáky a jejich rodiče představují známky ve škole klíčovou informaci formující i vzdělávací a kariérní ambice. 87 % žáků devátých ročníků s jedničkou z matematiky chce vystudovat vysokou školu. ...
Proximity to help matters: the effect of access to centers of legal aid on bankruptcy rates
Hrehová, Kristína; Domonkos, Š.
2022 - English
Personal bankruptcy aims to provide a fresh start to debtors. While bankruptcy is often the only solution to financial distress, large spatial distance to affordable legal services may result in its underuse by eligible debtors. Using a large administrative dataset of personal bankruptcies, we study the impact of spatial distance from public Centers for Legal Aid (CLAs) on the regional incidence of personal bankruptcy in Slovakia. We avoid endogeneity by focusing on the increased availability of legal aid controlling for the expected distance from the nearest CLA, which serves as the first contact point in the process of filing for personal bankruptcy in the Slovak Republic. Distance from these legal aid centers has a significant impact on personal bankruptcy rates: the closer the nearest CLA is, the larger the prevalence of personal bankruptcy is in a given municipality. We quantify the impact of service access on personal bankruptcy rates, showing that improved access to free legal aid has both a statistically and substantively significant impact on the use of personal bankruptcy by the public. At the end of the almost 3-year-long period analyzed, municipalities with good access to CLAs had 3.3 bankruptcies more per 1,000 inhabitants than municipalities with weak access to CLAs. This effect is significant, as the average national bankruptcy rate until December 2019 reached 6.3 bankruptcies per 1,000 persons.
Keywords:
personal bankruptcy; insolvency; policy analysis
Fulltext is available at external website.
Proximity to help matters: the effect of access to centers of legal aid on bankruptcy rates
Personal bankruptcy aims to provide a fresh start to debtors. While bankruptcy is often the only solution to financial distress, large spatial distance to affordable legal services may result in its ...
Is longer maternal care always beneficial? The impact of a four-year paid parental leave
Bičáková, Alena; Kalíšková, Klára
2022 - English
We study the impact of an extension of paid family leave from 3 to 4 years on child long-term outcomes. Using a difference-in-differences design and comparing the first-affected with the last-unaffected cohorts of children, we find that an additional year of maternal care at the age of 3, which primarily crowded out enrollment into public kindergartens, had an adverse effect for children of loweducated mothers on human capital investments and labor-market attachment in early adulthood. The affected children were 12 p.p. more likely not to be in education, employment, or training (NEET) at the age of 21-22. The impact on daughters was larger and driven by a lower probability of attending college and higher probability of home production. Sons of low-educated mothers, on the other hand, were less likely to be employed. The results suggest that exposure to formal childcare may be more beneficial than all-day maternal care at the age of 3, especially for children with a lower socio-economic background.
Keywords:
family leave; maternal care; subsidized childcare
Fulltext is available at external website.
Is longer maternal care always beneficial? The impact of a four-year paid parental leave
We study the impact of an extension of paid family leave from 3 to 4 years on child long-term outcomes. Using a difference-in-differences design and comparing the first-affected with the ...
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