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Macroeconomic Responses of Emerging Market Economies to Oil Price Shocks: Analysis by Region and Resource Profile
Togonidze, S.; Kočenda, Evžen
2022 - English
This study employs a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to analyse how oil price shocks affect macroeconomic fundamentals in emerging economies. Findings from existing literature remain inconclusive how macroeconomic variables fare towards shocks, especially in emerging economies. The objective of our study is to uncover if analysis by region (Latin America and the Caribbean, East Asia and the Pacific, Europe, and Central Asia) and resource intensity of economies (oil exporters, oil importers, minerals exporters, and less resource intensive). Our unique approach forms part of our contribution to the literature. We find that Latin America and the Caribbean are least affected by oil price shocks, while in East Asia and the Pacific the response of inflation and interest rate to oil price shocks is positive, and output growth is negative. Our analysis by resource endowment fails to show oil price shocks’ ability to explain huge variations in macroeconomic variables in oil importing economies. Further sensitivity analysis using US interest rates as an alternative source of external shocks to emerging economies establishes a significant response of interest rate responses to US interest rate in Europe and Central Asia, and in inflation in Latin America and the Caribbean. We also find that regardless of resource endowment, the response of output growth and capital to a positive US interest rate shock is negative and significant in EMs. Our results are persuasive that resource intensity and regional factors impact the responsiveness of emerging economies to oil price shocks, thus laying a basis for policy debate.\n
Keywords:
Emerging market economies; Oil shocks; GDP; Markov-switching; Exchange rate; Oil exporters; Metal exporters
Fulltext is available at external website.
Macroeconomic Responses of Emerging Market Economies to Oil Price Shocks: Analysis by Region and Resource Profile
This study employs a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to analyse how oil price shocks affect macroeconomic fundamentals in emerging economies. Findings from existing literature remain inconclusive ...
Score correlation for skewed distributions
Fabián, Zdeněk
2022 - English
Based on the new concept of the scalar-valued score function of continuous distributions we introduce the score correlation coefficient ”tai-lored” to the assumed probabilistic model and study its properties by means of simulation experiments. It appeared that the new correlation method is useful for enormously skewed distributions.
Keywords:
Scalar-valued score; score coefficient of variation; Monte Carlo
Available at various institutes of the ASCR
Score correlation for skewed distributions
Based on the new concept of the scalar-valued score function of continuous distributions we introduce the score correlation coefficient ”tai-lored” to the assumed probabilistic model and study its ...
Introduction to statistical inference based on scalar-valued scores
Fabián, Zdeněk
2022 - English
In the report we maintain consistently the following point of view: Given a continuous model, there are not the observed values, which are to be used in probabilistic and statistical considerations, but their ”treated forms”,the values of the scalar-valued score function corresponding to the model. Based on this modified concept of the score function, we develop theory of score random variables, study their geometry and define their new characteristics, finite even in cases of heavy-tailed models. A generalization for parametric families provides a new approach to parametric point estimation.
Keywords:
continuous distributions; score mean; score variance; score moment estimation method; score distance
Available at various institutes of the ASCR
Introduction to statistical inference based on scalar-valued scores
In the report we maintain consistently the following point of view: Given a continuous model, there are not the observed values, which are to be used in probabilistic and statistical considerations, ...
Scalar-Valued Score Functions and their use in Parametric Estimation
Fabián, Zdeněk
2022 - English
In the paper we describe and explain a new direction in probabilistic and statistical reasoning, the approach based on scalar-valued score functions of continuous random variables. We show basic properties of score functions of standard distributions, generalize the approach for parametric families and show how to use them for solutions of problems of parametric statistics.
Keywords:
core random variable; score mean; score variance; score distance; score correlation
Available on request at various institutes of the ASCR
Scalar-Valued Score Functions and their use in Parametric Estimation
In the paper we describe and explain a new direction in probabilistic and statistical reasoning, the approach based on scalar-valued score functions of continuous random variables. We show basic ...
Measurement on Compressor Cascade KOBRA
Luxa, Martin; Šimurda, David
2022 - English
The report contains results and evaluation of conducted optical (shadowgraph and schlieren technique) and pneumatic measurements on the profile cascade intended for the tip section of the first rotor row compressor blade.
Keywords:
compressor cascade; transonic flow; optical measurement; pneumatic measurement
Available at various institutes of the ASCR
Measurement on Compressor Cascade KOBRA
The report contains results and evaluation of conducted optical (shadowgraph and schlieren technique) and pneumatic measurements on the profile cascade intended for the tip section of the first rotor ...
Yield Curve Dynamics and Fiscal Policy Shocks
Kučera, A.; Kočenda, Evžen; Maršál, Aleš
2022 - English
We show that government spending does play a role in shaping the yield curve which has important consequences for the cost of private and government financing. We combine government spending shock identification strategies from the fiscal macro literature with recent advancements in no-arbitrage affine term structure modeling, where we account for time-varying macroeconomic trends in inflation and the equilibrium real interest rate. We stress in our empirical macro-finance framework the importance of timing in the response of yields to government spending. We find that the yield curve responds positively but mildly to a surprise in government spending shocks where the rise in risk-neutral yields is compensated by a drop in nominal term premia. The news shock in expectations about future expenditures decreases yields across all maturities. Complementarily, we also analyze the effect of fiscal policy uncertainty where higher fiscal uncertainty lowers yields.
Keywords:
Government Expenditures; Fiscal policy; U.S. Treasury Yield Curve; Affine Term Structure Model
Fulltext is available at external website.
Yield Curve Dynamics and Fiscal Policy Shocks
We show that government spending does play a role in shaping the yield curve which has important consequences for the cost of private and government financing. We combine government spending shock ...
ECB monetary policy and commodity prices
Aliyev, S.; Kočenda, Evžen
2022 - English
We assess the impact of ECB monetary policy on global aggregate and sectoral commodity prices over 2001–2019. We employ a SVAR model and separately assess periods before and after the global financial crisis. Our key results indicate that contractionary monetary policy shocks have positive effects on commodity prices during both conventional and unconventional monetary policy periods, indicating the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy tools. The largest impact is documented on fuel and food commodities. Our results also suggest that the effect of ECB monetary policy on commodity prices transmits through the exchange rate channel, which influences European market demand.
Keywords:
European Central Bank; commodity prices; short-term interest rates; M2 stock; monetary aggregate; unconventional monetary policy; Structural Vector Autoregressive model; exchange rates
Fulltext is available at external website.
ECB monetary policy and commodity prices
We assess the impact of ECB monetary policy on global aggregate and sectoral commodity prices over 2001–2019. We employ a SVAR model and separately assess periods before and after the global financial ...
A New Look to Information and Uncertainty of Continuous Distributions
Fabián, Zdeněk
2022 - English
We define information and uncertainty function of a family of continuous distributions. Their values are relative information and uncertainty of an observation from the given parametric family, their mean values are the generalized Fisher information and a new measure of variability, the score variance. In a series of examples we show why to use new concepts instead of the differential entropy.
Keywords:
Differential entropy; information function; uncertainty function; mean information of distribution
Available at various institutes of the ASCR
A New Look to Information and Uncertainty of Continuous Distributions
We define information and uncertainty function of a family of continuous distributions. Their values are relative information and uncertainty of an observation from the given parametric family, their ...
Financial Impact of Trust and Institutional Quality around the World
Kapounek, S.; Kočenda, Evžen; Kouba, L.
2022 - English
We investigate the financial impact of social trust, institutional quality, and regulations. As a testing ground we employ a unique, large, and hand-crafted dataset of more than 850 000 lending-based crowdfunding projects from 155 platforms across 55 countries during 2005–2018. We show that the impact of social trust is positive but economically less pronounced than that of institutional trust proxied by legal and property rights protection and regulation. Moreover, the financial impact of social trust is greater at the national level, while impact of institutional quality dominates at the international level. Nevertheless, the financial impact of trust and institutional quality around the world is positive, which is an encouraging implication under increasing anonymity and internationalization of financial environment.
Keywords:
social capital; social trust; institutional trust; uncertainty; crowdfunding; financial markets
Fulltext is available at external website.
Financial Impact of Trust and Institutional Quality around the World
We investigate the financial impact of social trust, institutional quality, and regulations. As a testing ground we employ a unique, large, and hand-crafted dataset of more than 850 000 lending-based ...
Large Perimeter Objects Surrounded by a 1.5D Terrain
Keikha, Vahideh
2022 - English
Given is a 1.5D terrain T , i.e., an x-monotone polygonal chain in R2. Our objective is to approximate the largest area or perimeter convex polygon with at most k vertices inside T . For a constant k > 0, we design an FPTAS that efficiently approximates such polygons within a factor (1 − ǫ). For the special case of the´largest-perimeter contained triangle in T , we design an O(n log n) time exact algorithm that matches the same result for the area measure.
Available in digital repository of the ASCR
Large Perimeter Objects Surrounded by a 1.5D Terrain
Given is a 1.5D terrain T , i.e., an x-monotone polygonal chain in R2. Our objective is to approximate the largest area or perimeter convex polygon with at most k vertices inside T . For a constant k ...
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