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Reforma sociálních odvodů OSVČ: vstupní analýza
Prokop, D.; Pertold, Filip
2023 - Czech
Studie analyzuje dopady celkem tří variant. Vládní varianta byla představena 11. 5. spolu s dalšími změnami v rámci tzv. konsolidačního balíčku. Výzkumníci z PAQ a IDEA dodávají vylepšenou vládní variantu, která optimalizuje zveřejněný návrh, a poté ideální podobu reformy. Ideální varianta PAQ + IDEA počítá se zrušením paušální daně a revizí paušálních výdajů. Nezhoršuje pozici nízkopříjmových OSVČ s reálnými náklady (zejména řemeslníci), zároveň omezuje zvýhodnění vysokopříjmových OSVČ s malými náklady. Vede k narovnání nerovností mezi samotnými OSVČ i mezi zaměstnanci a OSVČ, snižuje motivaci ke švarcsystému. Otevírá prostor pro reformu zdanění zaměstnanců (jejíž podobu jsme navrhli v předchozí studii). Pomáhá konsolidovat rozpočet a brání budoucí sociální krizi, kterou by způsobily nízké důchody pro statisíce živnostníků. The study analyses the impacts of a total of three variants. The government variant was presented on 11 May together with other changes under the so-called consolidation package. Researchers from PAQ and IDEA come up with an improved government variant that optimises the published proposal, and then with the ideal form of reform. The ideal PAQ + IDEA variant envisages the abolition of the flat tax and the revision of the flat expenditure. It does not worsen the position of low-income self-employed with real costs (especially artisans), while limiting the advantage of high-income self-employed with small costs. It leads to a levelling of inequalities between self-employed workers themselves and between employees and self-employed workers, reducing the incentive to false self-employment. It opens up space for reform of employee taxation (the form of which we proposed in a previous study). It helps consolidate the budget and prevents a future social crisis caused by low pensions for hundreds of thousands of self-employed workers.
Keywords:
self-employed workers; taxation reform; social security
Fulltext is available at external website.
Reforma sociálních odvodů OSVČ: vstupní analýza
Studie analyzuje dopady celkem tří variant. Vládní varianta byla představena 11. 5. spolu s dalšími změnami v rámci tzv. konsolidačního balíčku. Výzkumníci z PAQ a IDEA dodávají vylepšenou vládní ...
Quo vadis? Evidence on new firm-bank matching and firm performance following “sin” bank closures
Goncharenko, R.; Mamonov, Mikhail; Ongena, S.; Popova, S.; Turdyeva, N.
2023 - English
In this paper, we analyze how firms search for new lenders after a financial regulator forcibly closes their prior banks, and what happens to the firms’ performance during this transition period. In 2013, the Central Bank of Russia launched a large-scale bank closure policy and started detecting fraudulent (sin) banks and revoking their licenses. By 2020, two-thirds of all operating banks had been shuttered. We analyze this unique period in history using credit register data. First, we establish that before sin bank closures, there was no informational leakage and the borrowing firms remain unaffected. After the closures, there is a clear sorting pattern: poorly-performing firms rush to other (not-yet-detected) sin banks, while profitable firms transfer to financially solid banks. We find that the coupling of poorly-performing firms and not-yet-detected sin banks occurs more frequently when the two sin banks (the prior and the next lender) are commonly owned or when the local banking market is unconcentrated. Finally, we show that during the transition period (i.e., after the sin bank closures and before matching to new banks), poorly-performing firms shrink in size and experience a sharp decline in borrowings and market sales, whereas profitable firms strengthen in terms of employment, investment, and market sales. A potential mechanism involves credit risk underpricing by sin banks: we find that poorly-performing firms (especially commonly owned) received loans at lower interest rates than profitable firms prior to sin bank closures.
Keywords:
credit register; bank clean-up; regulatory forbearance
Fulltext is available at external website.
Quo vadis? Evidence on new firm-bank matching and firm performance following “sin” bank closures
In this paper, we analyze how firms search for new lenders after a financial regulator forcibly closes their prior banks, and what happens to the firms’ performance during this transition period. In ...
The price of war: macroeconomic and cross-sectional effects of sanctions on Russia
Mamonov, Mikhail; Pestova, Anna
2023 - English
How much do sanctions harm the sanctioned economy? We examine the case of Russia, which has faced three major waves of international sanctions over the last decade (in 2014, 2017, and 2022). In a VAR model of the Russian economy, we first apply sign restrictions to isolate shocks to international credit supply to proxy for the financial sanctions shocks. We provide a microeconomic foundation for the sign restriction approach by exploiting the syndicated loan deals in Russia. We then explore the effects of the overall sanctions shocks (financial, trade, technological, etc.) by employing a high-frequency identification (HFI) approach. Our HFI is based on each OFAC/EU sanction announcement and the associated daily changes in the yield-to-maturity of Russia’s US dollar-denominated sovereign bonds. Our macroeconomic estimates indicate that Russia’s GDP may have lost no more than 0.8% due to the financial sanctions shock, and up to 3.2% due to the overall sanctions shock cumulatively over the 2014–2015 period. In 2017, the respective effects are 0 and 0.5%, and in 2022, they are 8 and 12%. Our cross-sectional estimates show that the real income of richer households declines by 1.5–2.0% during the first year after the sanctions shock, whereas the real income of poorer households rises by 1.2% over the same period. Finally, we find that the real total revenue of large firms with high (low) TFPs declines by 2.2 (4.0)% during the first year after the sanctions shock, whereas the effects on small firms are close to zero. Overall, our results indicate heterogeneous effects of sanctions with richer households residing in big cities and larger firms with high TFPs being affected the most.
Keywords:
sanctions news shock; monetary policy; commodity terms-of-trade
Fulltext is available at external website.
The price of war: macroeconomic and cross-sectional effects of sanctions on Russia
How much do sanctions harm the sanctioned economy? We examine the case of Russia, which has faced three major waves of international sanctions over the last decade (in 2014, 2017, and 2022). In a VAR ...
Social ties at work and effort choice: experimental evidence from Tanzania
Chegere, M.; Falco, P.; Menzel, Andreas
2023 - English
Many firms hire workers via social networks. Whether workers who are socially connected to their employers exert more effort on the job is an unsettled debate. We address this question through a novel experiment with small-business owners in Tanzania. Participants are paired with a worker who conducts a real-effort task, and receive a payoff that depends on the worker’s effort. Some business owners are randomly paired with workers they are socially connected with, while others are paired with strangers. With a design that is sufficiently powered to detect economically meaningful effects, we find that being socially connected to one’s employer does not affect workers’ effort.\n
Keywords:
firms; hiring; productivity
Fulltext is available at external website.
Social ties at work and effort choice: experimental evidence from Tanzania
Many firms hire workers via social networks. Whether workers who are socially connected to their employers exert more effort on the job is an unsettled debate. We address this question through a novel ...
Human capital affects religious identity: causal evidence from Kenya
Alfonsi, L.; Bauer, Michal; Chytilová, Julie; Miguel, E.
2023 - English
We study how human capital and economic conditions causally affect the choice of religious denomination. We utilize a longitudinal dataset monitoring the religious history of more than 5,000 Kenyans over twenty years, in tandem with a randomized experiment (deworming) that has exogenously boosted education and living standards. The main finding is that the program reduces the likelihood of membership in a Pentecostal denomination up to 20 years later when respondents are in their mid-thirties, while there is a comparable increase in membership in traditional Christian denominations. The effect is concentrated and statistically significant among a sub-group of participants who benefited most from the program in terms of increased education and income. The effects are unlikely due to increased secularization, because the program does not reduce measures of religiosity. The results help explain why the global growth of the Pentecostal movement, sometimes described a “New Reformation”, is centered in low-income communities.
Keywords:
human capital; economic conditions; religious denomination
Fulltext is available at external website.
Human capital affects religious identity: causal evidence from Kenya
We study how human capital and economic conditions causally affect the choice of religious denomination. We utilize a longitudinal dataset monitoring the religious history of more than 5,000 Kenyans ...
Analýza výdajů státního rozpočtu 2024 ve světle předkrizového roku 2019
Janský, Petr; Kolář, Daniel
2023 - Czech
Naše analýza srovnává návrh státního rozpočtu na rok 2024 schválený vládou s výsledky státního rozpočtu v roce 2019. Mezidobí tedy zahrnuje dvě zásadní události — koronavirus a agresi Ruska na Ukrajině — s řadou významných ekonomických dopadů. Procentní nárůsty klíčových výdajů státního rozpočtu poměřujeme s nárůstem cenové hladiny o 40,6 % a nominálního hrubého domácího produktu (HDP) o 33,9 % za stejné období 2019–2024. Srovnání s inflací je určující pro změnu reálné hodnoty výdajů, srovnání s nárůstem HDP ukazuje změnu podílu výdajů na HDP. Our analysis compares the 2024 state budget proposal approved by the government with 2019 state budget results. The interim period includes two major events with a number of significant economic impacts - the coronavirus and Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. We compare the percentage increases in key state budget expenditures with the 40.6% increase in prices and the 33.9% increase in nominal gross domestic product (GDP) over the same period, 2019-2024. Comparison that takes inflation into account is indicative of the change in the real value of spending, while comparison accounting for GDP growth shows the change in the shares of spending in GDP.
Keywords:
budget proposal; budget expenditures; Czech Republic
Fulltext is available at external website.
Analýza výdajů státního rozpočtu 2024 ve světle předkrizového roku 2019
Naše analýza srovnává návrh státního rozpočtu na rok 2024 schválený vládou s výsledky státního rozpočtu v roce 2019. Mezidobí tedy zahrnuje dvě zásadní události — koronavirus a agresi Ruska na ...
Jak zachránit státní rozpočet a napravit nedostatky v danění příjmů? Modelování dopadů změn daně z příjmu fyzických osob (zaměstnanců)
Prokop, D.; Kalíšková, Klára; Šoltés, Michal; Münich, Daniel; Ostrý, M.
2023 - Czech
Strukturální deficit státního rozpočtu je z části tvořen výpadkem daňových příjmů za cca 150 miliard Kč od roku 2020. Pro stabilizaci veřejných financí je třeba kromě reforem výdajů zacelit maximum těchto daňových ztrát. Příjmy lze ale posilovat i jinak než zdaněním zaměstnanců. Jinými typy daní lze odhadem vybrat 70 až 115 miliard Kč. Navržené změny DPFO (daň z příjmu fyzických osob) tak musí dorovnávat očekávaný výběr z dalších zdrojů a reagovat na další specifika nastavení daně z příjmu v ČR. Tím je mimo jiné malá progrese a existence řady slev, které nemohou plně čerpat lidé s nižšími příjmy. To vede k relativně vysokému zatížení nízkopříjmových zaměstnanců při omezeném výběru DPFO. The structural deficit of the state budget is partly made up of a shortfall in tax revenues of about CZK 150 billion from 2020 onwards. In order to stabilize public finances, in addition to spending reforms, the maximum of these tax losses must be recovered. However, revenue can be strengthened also in other ways than by taxing employees. An estimated CZK 70 to 115 billion can be raised through other types of taxes. The proposed changes to the personal income tax (PIT) must therefore balance the expected collection from other sources and respond to other specificities of the income tax set-up in the Czech Republic. These include, among others, the small progression and the existence of a number of discounts that cannot be fully used by people with lower incomes. This leads to a relatively high burden on low-income employees with limited collection of the PTI.
Keywords:
state budget; income tax; Czech Republic
Fulltext is available at external website.
Jak zachránit státní rozpočet a napravit nedostatky v danění příjmů? Modelování dopadů změn daně z příjmu fyzických osob (zaměstnanců)
Strukturální deficit státního rozpočtu je z části tvořen výpadkem daňových příjmů za cca 150 miliard Kč od roku 2020. Pro stabilizaci veřejných financí je třeba kromě reforem výdajů zacelit maximum ...
Pracovně motivační dopady návrhů daňových změn na zaměstnance
Kalíšková, Klára; Münich, Daniel; Šoltés, Michal
2023 - Czech
V této studii analyzujeme dopady změn daní a povinných odvodů zaměstnanců, tak jak je navrhuje vládní konsolidační balíček představený v květnu 2023. Detailně se věnujeme i dopadům omezení slevy na manžela či manželku s nízkými příjmy. Zatímco existující analýzy se soustředí především na vyčíslení přerozdělovacích efektů a dopadů na daňový výnos, naše analýza sleduje i proměnu motivací k práci, tedy motivace pracovat či nepracovat a motivace pracovat více nebo méně. Ukazujeme, jak návrh změní průměrné, mezní a participační daňové sazby. Zatímco průměrná daňová sazba vypovídá o daňovém zatížení příjmů a říká, jaká část nákladů práce je odváděna ve formě daní a odvodů, další dva ukazatele souvisejí s motivací pracovat. Mezní daňová sazba popisuje motivaci pracovat více nebo méně hodin a participační daňová sazba motivaci k participaci na trhu práce (nebo naopak k odchodu z něj). Poskytujeme tedy tzv. ex ante analýzu očekávaných dopadů vládního balíčku na míru zdanění různých skupin obyvatel a jejich pracovní motivace. Ex post analýzu behaviorálních efektů tohoto balíčku, tedy jeho dopadů na participaci na trhu práce nebo počet odpracovaných hodin, přirozeně není možné provést před samotnou implementací daňových opatření. In this study, we analyse the impact of the changes to taxes and compulsory contributions for employees as proposed in the government's consolidation package unveiled in May 2023. We also look in detail at the impact of the restrictions on the low-income spouse allowance. While existing analyses focus primarily on quantifying redistributive effects and the impact on tax revenue, our analysis also looks at the transformation of incentives to work, i.e., incentives to work or not work and incentives to work more or less. We show how the proposal will change average, marginal and participation tax rates. While the average tax rate tells us about the tax burden on income and how much of the cost of labour is paid in taxes and levies, the other two indicators are related to the incentive to work. The marginal tax rate describes the incentive to work more or fewer hours, and the participation tax rate the incentive to participate in (or leave) the labour market. We thus provide an ex ante analysis of the expected effects of the government package on the tax rates of different groups of the population and their work motivation. Ex post analysis of the behavioural effects of this package, i.e. its impact on labour market participation or the number of hours worked, is naturally not possible before the actual implementation of the tax measures.
Keywords:
tax system; TAXBEN model; income tax
Fulltext is available at external website.
Pracovně motivační dopady návrhů daňových změn na zaměstnance
V této studii analyzujeme dopady změn daní a povinných odvodů zaměstnanců, tak jak je navrhuje vládní konsolidační balíček představený v květnu 2023. Detailně se věnujeme i dopadům omezení slevy na ...
Extrapolative income expectations and retirement savings
Cota, Marta
2023 - English
Why do employees’ retirement contributions gradually increase throughout their careers? This paper uses a structural life-cycle model based on household expectations data to explain workers’ retirement contribution decisions. The Michigan Survey of Consumers data shows that young households extrapolate from their recent income realizations and overstate the persistence and volatility of their future income. The structural life-cycle model with extrapolative expectations quantifies the difference in retirement contribution rates compared to rational expectations. Contrary to rational workers, extrapolative workers’ contributions match the data on retirement contributions over the life cycle. Consequently, mandating automatic enrollment yields negligible effects on retirement savings.
Keywords:
extrapolative expectations; forecast errors; illiquid savings
Fulltext is available at external website.
Extrapolative income expectations and retirement savings
Why do employees’ retirement contributions gradually increase throughout their careers? This paper uses a structural life-cycle model based on household expectations data to explain workers’ ...
Do pessimistic expectations about discrimination make minorities withdraw their effort? Causal evidence
Korlyakova, Darya
2022 - English
There is a long-standing concern that expected discrimination discourages minorities from exercising effort to succeed. Effort withdrawal could contribute to confirming negative stereotypes about minorities’ productivity and enduring disparities. This paper extends the findings of correlational research by exogenously manipulating individuals’ beliefs about discrimination against their group and exploring a causal link between perceived discrimination and individuals’ labor market behavior. For this purpose, we conduct an online experiment in the US with a diverse sample of 2,000 African Americans. We randomly assign individuals to two groups and inform one group about the frequency of discrimination against African Americans in a previous survey. To study the information effects on effort, we subsequently measure participants’ results on a math task. We document that most individuals initially overestimate discrimination against African Americans. The overestimation decreases strongly and significantly as a result of information provision. At the same time, treated individuals, males in particular, attempt and solve correctly fewer math problems compared to untreated individuals. Hence, our findings do not support the common concern that minorities’ inflated expectations about discrimination induce them to underperform.
Keywords:
perceived discrimination; racial minorities; effort
Fulltext is available at external website.
Do pessimistic expectations about discrimination make minorities withdraw their effort? Causal evidence
There is a long-standing concern that expected discrimination discourages minorities from exercising effort to succeed. Effort withdrawal could contribute to confirming negative stereotypes about ...
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