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Ruská imperiální válka a potřeba pomoci Ukrajině během války a po ní
Švejnar, Jan
2023 - Czech
V této eseji se na základě historického pohledu na imperiální ambice Ruska a Sovětského svazu zabývám Putinovou invazí na Ukrajinu a potřebou rozhodné pomoci západu Ukrajině během války a po ní. Zdůrazňuji, že role, kterou v západní reakci sehrály země středovýchodní Evropy, byla rozhodující, stejně jako je a v budoucnu může být jiným způsobem rozhodující role Číny. Západní sankce doposud nebyly příliš účinné, protože Evropa nadále dovážela ruskou ropu a plyn a většina západních firem Rusko neopustila. Na globální úrovni Putinova invaze na Ukrajinu také do značné míry předznamenává, že se žádná země nikdy nevzdá svých jaderných zbraní výměnou za bezpečnostní záruky velmocí. In this essay, I use a historical perspective on Russia’s and Soviet Union’s imperial ambitions to examine Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and the need for the West to assist Ukraine decisively during and after the War. I emphasize that the part played by the countries of Central-East Europe in western response has been critical, as is and may in the future be, in a different way, the part played by China. Western sanctions have not been very effective as Europe has continued importing Russian oil and gas and most western firms have not left Russia. At the global level, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine also pretty much ensures that no country will ever give up its nuclear weapons in return for security guarantees by the Great Powers.
Keywords:
Russia; invasion of Ukraine; assistance
Fulltext is available at external website.
Ruská imperiální válka a potřeba pomoci Ukrajině během války a po ní
V této eseji se na základě historického pohledu na imperiální ambice Ruska a Sovětského svazu zabývám Putinovou invazí na Ukrajinu a potřebou rozhodné pomoci západu Ukrajině během války a po ní. ...
Are subsidies to business R&D effective? Regression discontinuity evidence from the TA CR ALFA programme
Bajgar, Matěj; Srholec, Martin
2023 - English
Governments subsidise business research and experimental development (R&D) to promote development of the economy, because externalities and information asymmetries inherent to the innovation process make private funding of these activities fall short of what is socially desirable. Nevertheless, how effective such subsidies are and whether they achieve their goals is an open question that needs to be studied empirically. This study leverages the state-of-the-art method of regression discontinuity (RD) that allows us to come very close to making causal inferences about the effects of subsidies, to find out whether the Technology Agency of the Czech Republic’s (TA CR) ALFA programme stimulated new business R&D inputs, outputs, and positive economic impacts that would not have happened otherwise.
Keywords:
government subsidies; innovations; economic development
Fulltext is available at external website.
Are subsidies to business R&D effective? Regression discontinuity evidence from the TA CR ALFA programme
Governments subsidise business research and experimental development (R&D) to promote development of the economy, because externalities and information asymmetries inherent to the innovation process ...
Rozdíly nákladnosti vysokoškolského výzkumu mezi vědními oblastmi: jak moc se liší od „KENů“ ve výuce?
Srholec, Martin
2023 - Czech
Na téma nízkých mezd v oblasti sociálních a humanitních věd bylo v poslední době hodně řečeno a napsáno. Akademici proti tomu už i demonstrovali v ulicích a začalo se dokonce mluvit o stávce. Ačkoliv řešení vypadá v nedohlednu, jeden pozitivní výsledek tomu nelze upřít. Začalo se totiž konečně mluvit o tom, jestli tzv. koeficienty ekonomické náročnosti (KEN), podle kterých již třicet let rozděluje MŠMT hlavní část dotace na vysokoškolskou výuku, nepotřebují aktualizovat. Cílem této studie je porovnat rozptyl těchto KENů s rozdíly v nákladnosti akademické činnosti, která má k vysokoškolské výuce nejblíže, což je bezesporu výzkum a vývoj (VaV). Nesnažíme se spočítat nové KENy – což by bylo žádoucí, ale není v rámci nám dostupných dat a zdrojů proveditelné – nýbrž alespoň rámcově zjistit, do jaké míry se současné KENy liší od proporcí pozorovaných ve VaV. Much has been said and written recently about low wages in the social sciences and humanities. Academics have demonstrated in the streets about it, and there has even been talk of a strike. Although a solution seems to be out of sight, one positive outcome cannot be denied. Discussion has finally begun on whether the so-called „koeficienty ekonomické náročnosti“ (KEN), on the base of which the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports (MEYS) distributes the main part of the subsidy for teaching in higher education over the past thirty years needs to be updated. This study compares the dispersion of KENs with the differences in costs of the academic activity closest to higher education teaching, which is undoubtedly research and development (R&D). We are not attempting to recalculate the KENs - which would be desirable, but is not feasible with the data and resources available to us - but at least to approximate the extent to which current KENs differ from the costs observed in R&D.
Keywords:
social sciences and humanities; R&D; wages
Fulltext is available at external website.
Rozdíly nákladnosti vysokoškolského výzkumu mezi vědními oblastmi: jak moc se liší od „KENů“ ve výuce?
Na téma nízkých mezd v oblasti sociálních a humanitních věd bylo v poslední době hodně řečeno a napsáno. Akademici proti tomu už i demonstrovali v ulicích a začalo se dokonce mluvit o stávce. Ačkoliv ...
Sexual-orientation discrimination and biological attributions: experimental evidence from Russia
Baghumyan, Gayane
2023 - English
Understanding what drives discriminatory behavior is important in order to identify the best strategy to combat it. In this study, I exogenously manipulate participants’ beliefs about the origins of sexual orientation by providing evidence that supports biological causes of homosexuality. I employ money allocation tasks to measure discrimination. This allows me to causally identify the impact of information on discriminatory behavior. I first document the prevalence of discrimination against individuals with same-sex partners in Russia. On average, roughly 54% of participants exhibit discriminatory behavior against profiles with same-sex partners by allocating 16 percentage points less money to them. Further, the results suggest that exposure to evidence on the biological causes of homosexuality negatively affects discriminatory behavior. Participants in the treatment group allocate less money to profiles with same-sex partners, relative to participants in the baseline group. Potential rationales for this behavior could include the following: (i) the provision of information that contradicts existing beliefs might cause cognitive dissonance, triggering irritation and intensifying discriminatory tendencies, (ii) the information might foster beliefs that individuals in same-sex partnerships are fundamentally ’other’ - even at a biological level - thereby widening the perceived social gap between participants and these sexual minority groups and fostering discrimination further.
Keywords:
discrimination; information; sexual minorities
Fulltext is available at external website.
Sexual-orientation discrimination and biological attributions: experimental evidence from Russia
Understanding what drives discriminatory behavior is important in order to identify the best strategy to combat it. In this study, I exogenously manipulate participants’ beliefs about the origins of ...
Platy učitelů v roce 2022 a výhled: cesta z propasti a zase zpět
Münich, Daniel; Smolka, Vladimír
2023 - Czech
Výše relativních učitelských platů spoluurčuje atraktivitu učitelské profese a zajišťuje dostatečný zájem o profesi. Výběrovost profese, jak na straně vysokoškolské přípravy, tak během kariéry, spoluurčuje kvalitu vzdělávání. Tyto procesy se realizují dlouhodobě průběžnými příchody a odchody do a z profese a dalším vzděláváním. Proto lze dopady učitelských platů na zájem o profesi, kvalitu práce učitelů a vzdělávací výsledky země vysledovat až s dlouhodobým odstupem. The relative amounts of teachers‘ salaries helps to define the attractiveness of entering the teaching profession and can be a component in ensuring sufficient interest in the profession. Selectivity into teaching, both at entry and throughout the career, determines the quality of education. These processes are realised in the long term through continuous entries and exits from teaching, and ongoing training during the career. Therefore, the effects of teacher salaries on interest in entering the profession, the quality of teachers' work, and ultimately a country's educational outcomes can only be tracked over the long term.
Keywords:
teachers’ salaries; Czech Republic
Fulltext is available at external website.
Platy učitelů v roce 2022 a výhled: cesta z propasti a zase zpět
Výše relativních učitelských platů spoluurčuje atraktivitu učitelské profese a zajišťuje dostatečný zájem o profesi. Výběrovost profese, jak na straně vysokoškolské přípravy, tak během kariéry, ...
Máme příliš mnoho vysokoškoláků? Co lze vyčíst z celoživotních mzdových profilů
Hrendash, Taras; Jurajda, Štěpán; Münich, Daniel; Doleželová, P.; Mrázek, P.
2023 - Czech
Od počátku nového století došlo v ČR k dynamickému růstu VŠ vzdělané pracovní síly. V ČR k tomu nejdříve přispěl vznik a rozvoj soukromých vysokých škol na konci 90. let a posléze výrazné otevírání veřejných vysokých škol po roce 2005. Podíl VŠ vzdělaných ve věkové skupině 30–34 let se tak během tří dekád více než zdvojnásobil. Nemáme už v Česku z ekonomického pohledu příliš mnoho vysokoškolsky vzdělaných? Odpověď na otázku je důležitá pro rozhodování, do jaké míry by měl stát finančně či jinak podporovat další růst počtu VŠ studentů a absolventů a nakolik by měl občany k počátečnímu a celoživotnímu VŠ studiu motivovat. Odpověď je důležitá i do debaty o potřebě posílení dnes velmi nízké úrovně a rozsahu finanční podpory VŠ studentů. V předkládané studii vytváříme popisné statistiky o mzdách a platech zaměstnanců, které jsou užitečným podkladem pro diskusi o této důležité otázce. Srovnáváme vývoj úrovně mezd a platů vysokoškoláků pro kohorty narozené v letech 1960, 1970, 1980 a 1990. Tyto kohorty se výrazně liší co do zastoupení vysokoškolsky vzdělaných. Zároveň pro tyto kohorty sledujeme vývoj mzdového (platového) poměru mezi absolventy vysokých a středních škol (VŠ/SŠ), tj. procentního rozdílu průměrných, resp. mediánových mezd (platů) středoškolsky a vysokoškolsky vzdělaných zaměstnanců. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the Czech Republic has experienced dynamic growth in its university-educated workforce. This trend was initially driven by the foundation and growth of private universities in the Czech Republic in the late 1990s, followed from 2005 onwards by a substantial opening-up of public universities. The share of the population aged between 30 and 34 with higher education has more than doubled over the course of three decades. From an economic perspective, do we now have too many university graduates in the Czech Republic? The answer to this question is crucial when it comes to deciding the extent to which the state should – financially or otherwise – support future growth in the numbers of university students and graduates, and how much it should encourage citizens to pursue initial or lifelong university education. The answer is also an important factor in debates about the need to increase the currently low financial support available to university students. The study we present here provides descriptive statistics about employees’ wages and salaries, which serve as a useful basis for any discussion of this important question. We compare trends in university-educated employees’ wages and salaries for cohorts born in 1960, 1970, 1980 and 1990. The shares of university graduates in these cohorts differ substantially. Further, we observe trends in the earnings ratio for these cohorts between university- and secondary-educated employees, i.e., the percentage differences between the mean or median earnings of employees with higher education and those of employees with only secondary education.
Keywords:
university education; human capital; Czech Republic
Fulltext is available at external website.
Máme příliš mnoho vysokoškoláků? Co lze vyčíst z celoživotních mzdových profilů
Od počátku nového století došlo v ČR k dynamickému růstu VŠ vzdělané pracovní síly. V ČR k tomu nejdříve přispěl vznik a rozvoj soukromých vysokých škol na konci 90. let a posléze výrazné otevírání ...
Hostility, population sorting, and backwardness: quasi-experimental evidence from the Red Army after WWII
Ochsner, Christian
2023 - English
Does a short episode of conflict or exposure to hostile troops cause regional economic backwardness, and if so, why and how does it persist? I answer these questions by exploiting economic differences across the idiosyncratic and short-lived line of contact between the Red Army and the Western Allies in South Austria at the end of WWII. Spatial regression discontinuity estimates show that hostile presence of the Red Army for 74 days caused an immediate relative population decline of around 12%, amplified to 25% by today. Age-specific migration patterns and subsequent fertility differences explain the multiplying effects. Sector development and measures of local labor productivity in 2011 also lag behind in regions briefly seized by the Red Army, likely driven by skill-specific migration and hampered investment patterns after WWII. The findings provide novel insights into the long-run effects of wars and conflicts, and point to the isolated role of the Red Army’s hostile actions after WWII to understand the European economic East-West divide.\n
Keywords:
conflict; hostility; population shock
Fulltext is available at external website.
Hostility, population sorting, and backwardness: quasi-experimental evidence from the Red Army after WWII
Does a short episode of conflict or exposure to hostile troops cause regional economic backwardness, and if so, why and how does it persist? I answer these questions by exploiting economic differences ...
Quo vadis? Evidence on new firm-bank matching and firm performance following “sin” bank closures
Goncharenko, R.; Mamonov, Mikhail; Ongena, S.; Popova, S.; Turdyeva, N.
2023 - English
In this paper, we analyze how firms search for new lenders after a financial regulator forcibly closes their prior banks, and what happens to the firms’ performance during this transition period. In 2013, the Central Bank of Russia launched a large-scale bank closure policy and started detecting fraudulent (sin) banks and revoking their licenses. By 2020, two-thirds of all operating banks had been shuttered. We analyze this unique period in history using credit register data. First, we establish that before sin bank closures, there was no informational leakage and the borrowing firms remain unaffected. After the closures, there is a clear sorting pattern: poorly-performing firms rush to other (not-yet-detected) sin banks, while profitable firms transfer to financially solid banks. We find that the coupling of poorly-performing firms and not-yet-detected sin banks occurs more frequently when the two sin banks (the prior and the next lender) are commonly owned or when the local banking market is unconcentrated. Finally, we show that during the transition period (i.e., after the sin bank closures and before matching to new banks), poorly-performing firms shrink in size and experience a sharp decline in borrowings and market sales, whereas profitable firms strengthen in terms of employment, investment, and market sales. A potential mechanism involves credit risk underpricing by sin banks: we find that poorly-performing firms (especially commonly owned) received loans at lower interest rates than profitable firms prior to sin bank closures.
Keywords:
credit register; bank clean-up; regulatory forbearance
Fulltext is available at external website.
Quo vadis? Evidence on new firm-bank matching and firm performance following “sin” bank closures
In this paper, we analyze how firms search for new lenders after a financial regulator forcibly closes their prior banks, and what happens to the firms’ performance during this transition period. In ...
The price of war: macroeconomic and cross-sectional effects of sanctions on Russia
Mamonov, Mikhail; Pestova, Anna
2023 - English
How much do sanctions harm the sanctioned economy? We examine the case of Russia, which has faced three major waves of international sanctions over the last decade (in 2014, 2017, and 2022). In a VAR model of the Russian economy, we first apply sign restrictions to isolate shocks to international credit supply to proxy for the financial sanctions shocks. We provide a microeconomic foundation for the sign restriction approach by exploiting the syndicated loan deals in Russia. We then explore the effects of the overall sanctions shocks (financial, trade, technological, etc.) by employing a high-frequency identification (HFI) approach. Our HFI is based on each OFAC/EU sanction announcement and the associated daily changes in the yield-to-maturity of Russia’s US dollar-denominated sovereign bonds. Our macroeconomic estimates indicate that Russia’s GDP may have lost no more than 0.8% due to the financial sanctions shock, and up to 3.2% due to the overall sanctions shock cumulatively over the 2014–2015 period. In 2017, the respective effects are 0 and 0.5%, and in 2022, they are 8 and 12%. Our cross-sectional estimates show that the real income of richer households declines by 1.5–2.0% during the first year after the sanctions shock, whereas the real income of poorer households rises by 1.2% over the same period. Finally, we find that the real total revenue of large firms with high (low) TFPs declines by 2.2 (4.0)% during the first year after the sanctions shock, whereas the effects on small firms are close to zero. Overall, our results indicate heterogeneous effects of sanctions with richer households residing in big cities and larger firms with high TFPs being affected the most.
Keywords:
sanctions news shock; monetary policy; commodity terms-of-trade
Fulltext is available at external website.
The price of war: macroeconomic and cross-sectional effects of sanctions on Russia
How much do sanctions harm the sanctioned economy? We examine the case of Russia, which has faced three major waves of international sanctions over the last decade (in 2014, 2017, and 2022). In a VAR ...
Reforma sociálních odvodů OSVČ: vstupní analýza
Prokop, D.; Pertold, Filip
2023 - Czech
Studie analyzuje dopady celkem tří variant. Vládní varianta byla představena 11. 5. spolu s dalšími změnami v rámci tzv. konsolidačního balíčku. Výzkumníci z PAQ a IDEA dodávají vylepšenou vládní variantu, která optimalizuje zveřejněný návrh, a poté ideální podobu reformy. Ideální varianta PAQ + IDEA počítá se zrušením paušální daně a revizí paušálních výdajů. Nezhoršuje pozici nízkopříjmových OSVČ s reálnými náklady (zejména řemeslníci), zároveň omezuje zvýhodnění vysokopříjmových OSVČ s malými náklady. Vede k narovnání nerovností mezi samotnými OSVČ i mezi zaměstnanci a OSVČ, snižuje motivaci ke švarcsystému. Otevírá prostor pro reformu zdanění zaměstnanců (jejíž podobu jsme navrhli v předchozí studii). Pomáhá konsolidovat rozpočet a brání budoucí sociální krizi, kterou by způsobily nízké důchody pro statisíce živnostníků. The study analyses the impacts of a total of three variants. The government variant was presented on 11 May together with other changes under the so-called consolidation package. Researchers from PAQ and IDEA come up with an improved government variant that optimises the published proposal, and then with the ideal form of reform. The ideal PAQ + IDEA variant envisages the abolition of the flat tax and the revision of the flat expenditure. It does not worsen the position of low-income self-employed with real costs (especially artisans), while limiting the advantage of high-income self-employed with small costs. It leads to a levelling of inequalities between self-employed workers themselves and between employees and self-employed workers, reducing the incentive to false self-employment. It opens up space for reform of employee taxation (the form of which we proposed in a previous study). It helps consolidate the budget and prevents a future social crisis caused by low pensions for hundreds of thousands of self-employed workers.
Keywords:
self-employed workers; taxation reform; social security
Fulltext is available at external website.
Reforma sociálních odvodů OSVČ: vstupní analýza
Studie analyzuje dopady celkem tří variant. Vládní varianta byla představena 11. 5. spolu s dalšími změnami v rámci tzv. konsolidačního balíčku. Výzkumníci z PAQ a IDEA dodávají vylepšenou vládní ...
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