Number of found documents: 819
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Analýza příjmů státního rozpočtu 2024 ve světle předkrizového roku 2019
Janský, Petr; Kolář, Daniel
2024 - Czech
Tato analýza srovnává plánované příjmy státního rozpočtu na rok 2024 s výsledky státního rozpočtu v roce 2019. Mapuje období, během něhož na českou ekonomiku a veřejné rozpočty silně dopadly jak důsledky několika zásadních krizí (koronavirus, napadení Ukrajiny a válka, energetická krize a inflační vlna), tak výrazné parametrické změny českého daňového systému. Rok 2019 lze považovat za poslední předkrizový a rok 2024 za první pokrizový, takže odpovídají ‘normálním časům‘ lépe než roky mezi nimi. Tato analýza svým pojetím navazuje na předchozí analýzu vývoje výdajů státního rozpočtu mezi roky 2019 a 2024 a obsahuje i stručnou syntézu zjištění o vývoji příjmů a výdajů. This analysis compares planned state budget revenues in 2024 with the state budget outcomes of 2019. It charts a period in which the Czech economy and public budgets have been heavily impacted by the consequences of several major crises (coronavirus, the invasion of Ukraine and the war, an energy crisis, and an inflationary wave) as well as by significant parametric changes in the Czech tax system. 2019 can be considered the last pre-crisis year and 2024 the first post-crisis year, so they correspond to 'normal times' more closely than the years in between. This analysis builds on a previous analysis of the state budget expenditure development between 2019 and 2024 and includes a brief synthesis of findings on revenues and expenditures. Keywords: budget proposal; budget revenues; Czech Republic Fulltext is available at external website.
Analýza příjmů státního rozpočtu 2024 ve světle předkrizového roku 2019

Tato analýza srovnává plánované příjmy státního rozpočtu na rok 2024 s výsledky státního rozpočtu v roce 2019. Mapuje období, během něhož na českou ekonomiku a veřejné rozpočty silně dopadly jak ...

Janský, Petr; Kolář, Daniel
Národohospodářský ústav, 2024

Survey expectations, adaptive learning and inflation dynamics
Rychalovska, Y.; Slobodyan, Sergey; Wouters, R.
2024 - English
The use of survey information on inflation expectations as an observable in a DSGE model can substantially refine identification of the shocks that drive inflation. Optimal integration of the survey information improves the model forecast for inflation and for other macroeconomic variables. Models with expectations based on an Adaptive Learning setup can exploit survey information more efficiently than their Rational Expectations counterparts. The resulting time-variation in the perceived inflation target, in inflation persistence, and in the sensitivity of inflation to various shocks provide a rich and consistent description of the joint dynamics of realized and expected inflation. Our framework produces a reasonable interpretation of the post-Covid inflation dynamics. Our learning model successfully identifies the more persistent nature of the recent inflation surge. Keywords: inflation; expectations; survey data Fulltext is available at external website.
Survey expectations, adaptive learning and inflation dynamics

The use of survey information on inflation expectations as an observable in a DSGE model can substantially refine identification of the shocks that drive inflation. Optimal integration of the survey ...

Rychalovska, Y.; Slobodyan, Sergey; Wouters, R.
Národohospodářský ústav, 2024

The American origin of the French Revolution
Ottinger, Sebastian; Rosenberger, L.
2024 - English
We show that the French combatants’ exposure to the United States increased support for the French Revolution a decade later. French regions from which more American combatants originated had more revolts against feudal institutions, revolutionary societies, volunteers for the revolutionary army, and emigrants from the Old Regime’s elite. To establish causality, we exploit two historical coincidences: i) originally, a French army of seven and a half thousand was ready to sail, but one-third did not, ii) among those deployed, only some regiments were stationed in New England. Only combatants exposed to New England affected the French Revolution after their return. Keywords: institutional change; French Revolution; American War of Independence Fulltext is available at external website.
The American origin of the French Revolution

We show that the French combatants’ exposure to the United States increased support for the French Revolution a decade later. French regions from which more American combatants originated had more ...

Ottinger, Sebastian; Rosenberger, L.
Národohospodářský ústav, 2024

COVID-19 and political preferences through stages of the pandemic: the case of the Czech Republic
Bičáková, Alena; Jurajda, Štěpán
2024 - English
We track the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on political preferences through ‘high’ and ‘low’ phases of the pandemic. We ask about the effects of the health and the economic costs of the pandemic measured at both personal and municipality levels. Consistent with the literature, we estimate effects suggestive of political accountability of leaders during ‘high’ pandemic phases. However, we also find that the pandemic political accountability effects are mostly short-lived, and do not extend to the first post-pandemic elections. Keywords: COVID-19; political preferences; election outcomes Fulltext is available at external website.
COVID-19 and political preferences through stages of the pandemic: the case of the Czech Republic

We track the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on political preferences through ‘high’ and ‘low’ phases of the pandemic. We ask about the effects of the health and the economic costs of the pandemic ...

Bičáková, Alena; Jurajda, Štěpán
Národohospodářský ústav, 2024

(Ne)zájem žáků o učitelskou profesi: mezinárodní srovnání
Federičová, Miroslava
2024 - Czech
Mnoho evropských zemí včetně Česka se v současnosti potýká s nedostatkem učitelů, těch kvalitních obzvlášť. Jedním z řešení je podpora učitelských profesních aspirací už u mladých během jejich studia na základní a střední škole. Tato studie empiricky mapuje učitelské aspirace v evropských zemích mezi 15letými žáky na základě dat z mezinárodního šetření PISA. Many European countries, including the Czech Republic, currently face a shortage of teachers, especially quality teachers. One possible solution to this would be to support aspiring teachers at a younger age, during their studies at primary and secondary school. This study provides an empirical overview of teaching aspirations among 15-year-old school pupils in European countries based on data from the international PISA survey. Keywords: teachers; teaching aspirations; international comparison Fulltext is available at external website.
(Ne)zájem žáků o učitelskou profesi: mezinárodní srovnání

Mnoho evropských zemí včetně Česka se v současnosti potýká s nedostatkem učitelů, těch kvalitních obzvlášť. Jedním z řešení je podpora učitelských profesních aspirací už u mladých během jejich studia ...

Federičová, Miroslava
Národohospodářský ústav, 2024

Matching to suppliers in the production network: an empirical framework
Alfaro-Ureña, A.; Zacchia, Paolo
2024 - English
This paper develops a framework for the empirical analysis of the determinants of input supplier choice on the extensive margin using firm-to-firm transaction data. Building on a theoretical model of production network formation, we characterize the assumptions that enable a transformation of the multinomial logit likelihood function from which the seller fixed effects, which encode the seller marginal costs, vanish. This transformation conditions, for each subnetwork restricted to one supplier industry, on the out-degree of sellers (a sufficient statistic for the seller fixed effect) and the in-degree of buyers (which is pinned down by technology and by “make-or-buy” decisions). This approach delivers a consistent estimator for the effect of dyadic explanatory variables, which in our model are interpreted as matching frictions, on the supplier choice probability. The estimator is easy to implement and in Monte Carlo simulations it outperforms alternatives based on group fixed effects. In an empirical application about the effect of a major Costa Rican infrastructural project on firm-to-firm connections, our approach yields estimates typically much smaller in magnitude than those from naive multinomial logit. Keywords: production network; supplier choice; conditional logit Fulltext is available at external website.
Matching to suppliers in the production network: an empirical framework

This paper develops a framework for the empirical analysis of the determinants of input supplier choice on the extensive margin using firm-to-firm transaction data. Building on a theoretical model of ...

Alfaro-Ureña, A.; Zacchia, Paolo
Národohospodářský ústav, 2024

Disappearing stepping stones: technological change and career paths
Kashkarov, Daniil; Artemev, V.
2024 - English
Which career paths lead workers towards high-skilled non-routine cognitive occupations? Using PSID data, we show that, for a significant share of workers, a career path towards non-routine cognitive occupations goes through middle-skilled routine occupations, with the majority going through a subset of routine cognitive occupations. We then argue that the decline in employment in routine cognitive occupations due to routine-biased technological change can negatively affect the chances of younger cohorts joining high-skilled occupations. To test this hypothesis, we develop a structural occupational choice model that endogenously generates realistic career paths and estimate it using PSID data and job ad data from three major US outlets covering the period from 1940 to 2000. Our estimations suggest that, on average, 6% of workers ending up in non-routine cognitive occupations use routine cognitive occupations as stepping stones that allow them to maintain and accumulate human capital and experience relevant for later employment in high-skilled occupations. A fall in employment opportunities in routine cognitive occupations over the period of the most intensive routine-biased technological change led to at least 1.37 million lost high-skilled workers who got stuck in less skilled occupations. Keywords: routine-biased technological change; occupational choice; human capital Fulltext is available at external website.
Disappearing stepping stones: technological change and career paths

Which career paths lead workers towards high-skilled non-routine cognitive occupations? Using PSID data, we show that, for a significant share of workers, a career path towards non-routine cognitive ...

Kashkarov, Daniil; Artemev, V.
Národohospodářský ústav, 2024

Financial skills and search in the mortgage market
Cota, Marta; Šterc, Ante
2024 - English
Are households with low financial skills disadvantaged in the mortgage market? Using stochastic record linking, we construct a unique U.S. dataset encompassing a rich set of mortgage details and borrowers’ characteristics, including their objective financial literacy measure. We find that households with low financial literacy are up to 4% more likely to search less and lock in at 15-20 b.p. higher rates. Upon origination, unskilled borrowers face a 35-45% higher mortgage delinquency and end up with a 30% lower likelihood of refinancing. Overall, for a $100,000 loan, the potential losses from low financial literacy are more than $9,329 over the mortgage duration. To understand how financial education, more accessible mortgages, or mortgage rate changes affect households with low financial literacy, we formulate and calibrate a mortgage search model with heterogeneous search frictions and endogenous financial skills. Our model estimates show that search intensity and financial skill variations contribute to 55% and 10% of mortgage rate variations, respectively. We find that i) more accessible mortgages lead to a higher delinquency risk among low-skilled households, ii) financial education mitigates the adverse effects of increased accessibility, and iii) low mortgage rates favor high-skilled homeowners and, by reinforcing refinancing activity, deepen consumption differences across different financial skill levels. Keywords: mortgage refinancing; mortgage search; financial skills Fulltext is available at external website.
Financial skills and search in the mortgage market

Are households with low financial skills disadvantaged in the mortgage market? Using stochastic record linking, we construct a unique U.S. dataset encompassing a rich set of mortgage details and ...

Cota, Marta; Šterc, Ante
Národohospodářský ústav, 2024

Rizika reformy doktorského studia
Grosman, Jiří; Jurajda, Štěpán; Münich, Daniel
2024 - Czech
Systém financování doktorského studia v České republice je dlouhodobě neefektivní. Dokončovaná reforma má za cíl efektivitu systému výrazně zvýšit. V tomto krátkém textu upozorňujeme na potenciální problémy spojené s rozdělováním veřejné finanční podpory doktorského studia mezi vysoké školy. Problematické by bylo rozdělování podpory založené dominantně na míře úspěšného dokončování studií. Alokace veřejné podpory doktorského studia by vedle opodstatněných národních oborových priorit měla zohledňovat výsledky hodnocení kvality vědy na vysokých školách a úspěšnost v kariérním umisťování absolventů. The system of financing doctoral studies in the Czech Republic has long been inefficient. A reform currently underway aims to significantly increase the efficiency of the system. In this short text, we draw attention to potential problems associated with the distribution of public financial support for doctoral studies among universities. It would be problematic to distribute support based predominantly on degree completion rates. Allocation of public support for doctoral studies should take into account the results of evaluations of the quality of science produced by universities and their success in career placement of graduates, in addition to justifiable national disciplinary priorities. Keywords: doctoral studies; public financial support; Czech Republic Fulltext is available at external website.
Rizika reformy doktorského studia

Systém financování doktorského studia v České republice je dlouhodobě neefektivní. Dokončovaná reforma má za cíl efektivitu systému výrazně zvýšit. V tomto krátkém textu upozorňujeme na potenciální ...

Grosman, Jiří; Jurajda, Štěpán; Münich, Daniel
Národohospodářský ústav, 2024

Generace X a Y očima dat: když byli rodiče mladí jako my
Peňázová, Eva; Šoltés, Michal
2023 - Czech
Studie představuje unikátní srovnání současného života generace Y, tzv. mileniálů (narozeni 1981–1996), s generací X jejich rodičů (narozeni 1965–1980) na základě dostupných statistik týkajících se úrovně vzdělanosti, partnerských vztahů či relativních výdělků. This study presents a unique comparison of the lives of generation Y (millennials, born in 1981–1996) and those of generation X (their parents, born in 1965–1980) at the same age, based on available statistics related to education levels, relationships, and relative earnings.\n Keywords: generation Y; generation X; income and living conditions Fulltext is available at external website.
Generace X a Y očima dat: když byli rodiče mladí jako my

Studie představuje unikátní srovnání současného života generace Y, tzv. mileniálů (narozeni 1981–1996), s generací X jejich rodičů (narozeni 1965–1980) na základě dostupných statistik týkajících se ...

Peňázová, Eva; Šoltés, Michal
Národohospodářský ústav, 2023

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