Professional survey forecasts and expectations in DSGE models
Rychalovska, Y.; Slobodyan, Sergey; Wouters, R.
2023 - anglický In this paper, we demonstrate the usefulness of survey data for macroeconomic analysis and propose a strategy to integrate and efficiently utilize information from surveys in the DSGE setup. We extend the set of observable variables to include the data on consumption, investment, output, and inflation expectations, as measured by the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). By doing so, we aim to discipline the dynamics of model-based expectations and evaluate alternative belief models. Our approach to exploit the timely information from surveys is based on re-specification of structural shocks into persistent and transitory components. Due to the SPF, we are able to improve identification of fundamental shocks and predictive power of the model by separating the sources of low and high frequency volatility. Furthermore, we show that models with an imperfectly-rational expectation formation mechanism based on Adaptive Learning (AL) can reduce important limitations implied by the Rational Expectation (RE) hypothesis. More specifically, our models based on belief updating can better capture macroeconomic trend shifts and, as a result, achieve superior long-term predictions. In addition, the AL mechanism can produce realistic time variation in the transmission of shocks and perceived macro-economic volatility, which allows the model to better explain the investment dynamics. Finally, AL models, which relax the RE constraint of internal consistency between the agents’ and model forecasts, can reproduce the main features of agents’ predictions in line with SPF evidence and, at the same time, can generate improved model forecasts, thus diminishing possible inefficiencies present in surveys. Klíčová slova: expectations; survey data; adaptive learning Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách. Professional survey forecasts and expectations in DSGE models

In this paper, we demonstrate the usefulness of survey data for macroeconomic analysis and propose a strategy to integrate and efficiently utilize information from surveys in the DSGE setup. We extend ...

Rychalovska, Y.; Slobodyan, Sergey; Wouters, R.
Národohospodářský ústav, 2023

Gender gap in reported childcare preferences among parents
Pertold, Filip; Sinani, S.; Šoltés, M.
2023 - anglický The child penalty explains the majority of gender employment and wage gaps, however, less is known about the factors driving the child penalty itself. In this paper, we study the gender gap in childcare preferences as a potential factor that contributes to the child penalty. We surveyed Czech parents and elicited the minimal compensation they would require to stay home to care for a child. Mothers require less compensation for childcare than fathers. The estimated gender gap in childcare preferences is CZK 2,500 monthly, 7.6% of the median female wage, and cannot be explained by differences in labor market opportunities or prosocial motives to care for a family member. We further document widespread misperception of fathers’ preferences, as respondents incorrectly expect fathers to require less to care for a child than to care for an elderly parent.\n Klíčová slova: childcare; gender wage gap; gender employment gap Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách. Gender gap in reported childcare preferences among parents

The child penalty explains the majority of gender employment and wage gaps, however, less is known about the factors driving the child penalty itself. In this paper, we study the gender gap in ...

Pertold, Filip; Sinani, S.; Šoltés, M.
Národohospodářský ústav, 2023

Optical and Pneumatic Measurements on TR-U-11 Cascade
Luxa, Martin; Hála, Jindřich; Šimurda, David
2023 - anglický The report contains results and evaluation of conducted optical (interferometry and schlieren technique) and pneumatic measurements on the first variant of the new tip section, intended for turbine rotor blade. Klíčová slova: transonic flow; rotor turbine blade; tip section Plné texty jsou dostupné na jednotlivých ústavech Akademie věd ČR. Optical and Pneumatic Measurements on TR-U-11 Cascade

The report contains results and evaluation of conducted optical (interferometry and schlieren technique) and pneumatic measurements on the first variant of the new tip section, intended for turbine ...

Luxa, Martin; Hála, Jindřich; Šimurda, David
Ústav termomechaniky, 2023

Kráľova Lehota. Paleomagnetic research. Report
Elbra, Tiiu; Schnabl, Petr; Aidona, E.; Kdýr, Šimon; Uçar, Hakan; Pruner, Petr; Benediková, L.
2023 - anglický Klíčová slova: Archeological artefact; paleomagnetic dating; rock magnetism Plné texty jsou dostupné na jednotlivých ústavech Akademie věd ČR. Kráľova Lehota. Paleomagnetic research. Report

Elbra, Tiiu; Schnabl, Petr; Aidona, E.; Kdýr, Šimon; Uçar, Hakan; Pruner, Petr; Benediková, L.
Geologický ústav, 2023

Implementation of a plasticity model with advanced kinematic hardening rule for additively manufactured materials
Marek, René; Parma, Slavomír; Gabriel, Dušan; Džugan, J.
2023 - anglický This technical report summarizes particularly the modeling part of the project DP 04_01_NPO “Emission-free technologies for local energy sources replacement” including development of models to describe multi-material 3D printed structures. The work is done in cooperation between COMTES FHT, a.s., the Institute of Thermomechanics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, v.v.i. and PROINNO, a.s. The goal of the project is the development of material models describing the behavior of multi-material components deposited by the direct deposition method (DED) under multiaxial cyclic loading.\nIn the report, a plasticity model suitable for materials prepared by the additive manufacturing method is compiled and used. The model uses Hill's plasticity condition, an advanced multi-component kinematic hardening rule, and an isotropic hardening rule. The associated flow rule is chosen and the implementation assumes the theory of small deformations. All constitutive relationships are presented and discussed for the selected model, and the model is thus fully and unambiguously formulated. The model is analytically integrated for a special case of loading and a special choice of parameters of the plasticity condition, namely transverse isotropy. A discretization scheme for numerical integration and procedures for FE implementation of the model are presented. For the FE implementation, a formulation in the displacement field is assumed, specifically the FE solver Abaqus and the implementation of the model using the UMAT interface are targeted. Several examples of the model's response to monotonic, uniaxial and biaxial cyclic loading trajectories are presented. \n Tato zpráva shrnuje postup prací na dílčím projektu DP 04_01_NPO “Emission-free technologies for local energy sources replacement” zahrnující vývoj modelů pro popis chování multi-materiálových 3D tištěných struktur řešený v konsorciu COMTES FHT, a.s., Ústav termomechaniky AV ČR, v.v.i. a PROINNO, a.s. Cílem projektu je vývoj materiálových modelů popisujících chování multi-materiálových komponent deponovaných metodou přímé depozice (DED) pří víceosém cyklickém zatěžování. \nVe zprávě je sestaven a použit model plasticity vhodný pro materiály připravené metodou aditivní výroby. Model využívá Hillovu podmínku plasticity, pokročilý vícesložkový model kinematického zpevnění a model isotropního zpevnění. Je zvolen asociovaný zákon tečení a implementace předpokládá teorii malých deformací. Pro zvolený model jsou uvedeny a diskutovány všechny konstitutivní vztahy a model je tak plně a jednoznačně formulován. Model je analyticky integrován pro speciální případ zatěžování a speciální volbu parametrů podmínky plasticity, konkrétně příčnou isotropii. Je prezentováno diskretizační schema pro numerickou integraci a procedury pro MKP implementaci modelu. U MKP implementace se předpokládá formulace v poli posunutí, konkrétně je pak cíleno na MKP řešič Abaqus a implementaci modelu pomocí rozhraní UMAT. Je prezentováno několik příkladů odezvy modelu na monotónní, jednoosé a víceosé cycklické zatěžovací trajektorie.\n Klíčová slova: plasticity; anisotropy; additive manufacturing Plné texty jsou dostupné na jednotlivých ústavech Akademie věd ČR. Implementation of a plasticity model with advanced kinematic hardening rule for additively manufactured materials

This technical report summarizes particularly the modeling part of the project DP 04_01_NPO “Emission-free technologies for local energy sources replacement” including development of models to ...

Marek, René; Parma, Slavomír; Gabriel, Dušan; Džugan, J.
Ústav termomechaniky, 2023

Parental allowance increase and labour supply: evidence from a Czech reform
Grossmann, Jakub; Pertold, Filip; Šoltés, M.
2023 - anglický We study the effect of a CZK 80,000 (36%) increase in parental allowance, a universal basic income-type benefit, on the labor supply of parents in the Czech Republic. Drawing a parental allowance does not preclude labor market activity, which allows us to study the income effect. After the reform, mothers substantially prolonged the average period they drew an allowance. The labor market participation of mothers of young children decreased by 6 percentage points (15%). The estimated effect corresponds to a non-labor income labor supply elasticity at the extensive margin of about -0.5. The effect is particularly strong among mothers with their first child (10 p.p. or 28%) and among university-educated mothers (16 p.p. or 36%). We observe a virtually identical reduction in hours worked. We found no effect on the labor supply of fathers. Klíčová slova: parental allowance; maternal labor supply; income effect of social policy Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách. Parental allowance increase and labour supply: evidence from a Czech reform

We study the effect of a CZK 80,000 (36%) increase in parental allowance, a universal basic income-type benefit, on the labor supply of parents in the Czech Republic. Drawing a parental allowance does ...

Grossmann, Jakub; Pertold, Filip; Šoltés, M.
Národohospodářský ústav, 2023

Voting under debtor distress
Grossmann, Jakub; Jurajda, Štěpán
2023 - anglický There is growing evidence on the role of economic conditions in the recent successes of populist and extremist parties. However, little is known about the role of over-indebtedness, even though debtor distress has grown in Europe following the financial crisis. We study the unique case of the Czech Republic, where by 2017, nearly one in ten citizens had been served at least one debtor distress warrant even though the country consistently features low unemployment. Our municipality-level difference-in-differences analysis asks about the voting consequences of a rise in debtor distress following a 2001 deregulation of consumer-debt collection. We find that debtor distress has a positive effect on support for (new) extreme right and populist parties, but a negative effect on a (traditional) extreme-left party. The effects of debtor distress we uncover are robust to whether and how we control for economic hardship, the effects of debtor distress and economic hardship are of similar magnitude, but operate in opposing directions across the political spectrum. Klíčová slova: debtor distress; distress warrants; populist parties Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách. Voting under debtor distress

There is growing evidence on the role of economic conditions in the recent successes of populist and extremist parties. However, little is known about the role of over-indebtedness, even though debtor ...

Grossmann, Jakub; Jurajda, Štěpán
Národohospodářský ústav, 2023

The long-term impact of energy poverty and its mitigation on educational attainment: evidence from China
Martirosyan, Yervand
2023 - anglický Existing studies demonstrate the short-run connection between environmental conditions and academic performance. However, the long-term effects of exposure to adverse living conditions on academic achievement remain underexplored. This study investigates the long-term impact of energy poverty, and policy interventions aimed at alleviating it, on the academic performance of Chinese schoolchildren starting from infancy. It specifically utilizes the Huai River Policy, which provides free winter heating exclusively to northern regions in China but not to adjacent southern regions. My findings suggest a significant positive influence of winter heating on schoolchildren’s academic performance, with a more pronounced effect for children born during winter months. The insights gained from this research could inform policy debates to enhance educational outcomes and human well-being.\n Klíčová slova: energy poverty; academic performance; climate Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách. The long-term impact of energy poverty and its mitigation on educational attainment: evidence from China

Existing studies demonstrate the short-run connection between environmental conditions and academic performance. However, the long-term effects of exposure to adverse living conditions on academic ...

Martirosyan, Yervand
Národohospodářský ústav, 2023

Novel embedding resins for 3D-SEM II
Šlouf, Miroslav; Pavlova, Ewa; Strachota, Beata; Strachota, Adam; Nebesářová, Jana; Týč, Jiří; Krzyžánek, Vladislav; Skoupý, Radim
2023 - anglický Research report for Thermo Fisher Scientific s. r. o., based on common project awarded by TA CR (program: National center of competence, TN01000008). Klíčová slova: novel embedding resins; 3D-SEM microscopy; higher e-beam resistance Plné texty jsou dostupné na jednotlivých ústavech Akademie věd ČR. Novel embedding resins for 3D-SEM II

Research report for Thermo Fisher Scientific s. r. o., based on common project awarded by TA CR (program: National center of competence, TN01000008).

Šlouf, Miroslav; Pavlova, Ewa; Strachota, Beata; Strachota, Adam; Nebesářová, Jana; Týč, Jiří; Krzyžánek, Vladislav; Skoupý, Radim
Ústav makromolekulární chemie, 2023

Are subsidies to business R&D effective? Regression discontinuity evidence from the TA CR ALFA programme
Bajgar, Matěj; Srholec, Martin
2023 - anglický Governments subsidise business research and experimental development (R&D) to promote development of the economy, because externalities and information asymmetries inherent to the innovation process make private funding of these activities fall short of what is socially desirable. Nevertheless, how effective such subsidies are and whether they achieve their goals is an open question that needs to be studied empirically. This study leverages the state-of-the-art method of regression discontinuity (RD) that allows us to come very close to making causal inferences about the effects of subsidies, to find out whether the Technology Agency of the Czech Republic’s (TA CR) ALFA programme stimulated new business R&D inputs, outputs, and positive economic impacts that would not have happened otherwise. Klíčová slova: government subsidies; innovations; economic development Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách. Are subsidies to business R&D effective? Regression discontinuity evidence from the TA CR ALFA programme

Governments subsidise business research and experimental development (R&D) to promote development of the economy, because externalities and information asymmetries inherent to the innovation process ...

Bajgar, Matěj; Srholec, Martin
Národohospodářský ústav, 2023