Number of found documents: 1193
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Professional survey forecasts and expectations in DSGE models
Rychalovska, Y.; Slobodyan, Sergey; Wouters, R.
2023 - English
In this paper, we demonstrate the usefulness of survey data for macroeconomic analysis and propose a strategy to integrate and efficiently utilize information from surveys in the DSGE setup. We extend the set of observable variables to include the data on consumption, investment, output, and inflation expectations, as measured by the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). By doing so, we aim to discipline the dynamics of model-based expectations and evaluate alternative belief models. Our approach to exploit the timely information from surveys is based on re-specification of structural shocks into persistent and transitory components. Due to the SPF, we are able to improve identification of fundamental shocks and predictive power of the model by separating the sources of low and high frequency volatility. Furthermore, we show that models with an imperfectly-rational expectation formation mechanism based on Adaptive Learning (AL) can reduce important limitations implied by the Rational Expectation (RE) hypothesis. More specifically, our models based on belief updating can better capture macroeconomic trend shifts and, as a result, achieve superior long-term predictions. In addition, the AL mechanism can produce realistic time variation in the transmission of shocks and perceived macro-economic volatility, which allows the model to better explain the investment dynamics. Finally, AL models, which relax the RE constraint of internal consistency between the agents’ and model forecasts, can reproduce the main features of agents’ predictions in line with SPF evidence and, at the same time, can generate improved model forecasts, thus diminishing possible inefficiencies present in surveys. Keywords: expectations; survey data; adaptive learning Fulltext is available at external website.
Professional survey forecasts and expectations in DSGE models

In this paper, we demonstrate the usefulness of survey data for macroeconomic analysis and propose a strategy to integrate and efficiently utilize information from surveys in the DSGE setup. We extend ...

Rychalovska, Y.; Slobodyan, Sergey; Wouters, R.
Národohospodářský ústav, 2023

Inflation expectations in the wake of the war in Ukraine
Afunts, Geghetsik; Cato, M.; Schmidt, T.
2023 - English
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is posing a range of new challenges to the global economy, including affecting the inflation expectations of individuals. In this paper, we aim to quantify the effect of the invasion on short- and long-term inflation expectations of individuals in Germany. We use microdata from the Bundesbank Online Panel - Households (BOP-HH), for the period from February 15th to March 29th, 2022. Treating the unanticipated start of the war in Ukraine on the 24th of February 2022 as a natural experiment, we find that both short- and long-term inflation expectations increased as an immediate result of the invasion. Long-term inflation expectations increased by around 0.4 percentage points, while the impact on short-term inflation expectations was more than twice as large - around one percentage point. Looking into the possible mechanisms of this increase, we suggest that it can be partially attributed to individuals’ fears of soaring energy prices and increasing pessimism about economic trends in general. Our results indicate that large economic shocks can have a substantial impact on both short and long-term inflation expectations. Keywords: inflation expectations; Russian invasion of Ukraine; survey Fulltext is available at external website.
Inflation expectations in the wake of the war in Ukraine

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is posing a range of new challenges to the global economy, including affecting the inflation expectations of individuals. In this paper, we aim to quantify the effect of ...

Afunts, Geghetsik; Cato, M.; Schmidt, T.
Národohospodářský ústav, 2023

Gender gap in reported childcare preferences among parents
Pertold, Filip; Sinani, S.; Šoltés, M.
2023 - English
The child penalty explains the majority of gender employment and wage gaps, however, less is known about the factors driving the child penalty itself. In this\npaper, we study the gender gap in childcare preferences as a potential factor that contributes to the child penalty. We surveyed Czech parents and elicited the minimal compensation they would require to stay home to care for a child. Mothers require less compensation for childcare than fathers. The estimated gender gap in\nchildcare preferences is CZK 2,500 monthly, 7.6% of the median female wage, and cannot be explained by differences in labor market opportunities or prosocial motives to care for a family member. We further document widespread misperception of fathers’ preferences, as respondents incorrectly expect fathers to require less to care for a child than to care for an elderly parent.\n Keywords: childcare; gender wage gap; gender employment gap Fulltext is available at external website.
Gender gap in reported childcare preferences among parents

The child penalty explains the majority of gender employment and wage gaps, however, less is known about the factors driving the child penalty itself. In this\npaper, we study the gender gap in ...

Pertold, Filip; Sinani, S.; Šoltés, M.
Národohospodářský ústav, 2023

Key barriers, opportunities and good practices for entrepreneurship and innovation
Křížková, Alena; Marková Volejníčková, Romana; Pospíšilová, Marie; Vohlídalová, Marta
2023 - English
The report is focused on barriers, opportunities and good practices for gender-sensitive innovations and entrepreneurship. It is based on the analysis of 36 interviews with experts from the health, green and digital fields and the target groups defined in the quadruple helix of academia, citizens, industry, and government. The interviews were collected by 12 GILL partners in the 10 consortium countries in 2023. Gender stereotypical cultural beliefs and norms, masculine bias, gender segregation, lack of funding, lack of policies to support work-life balance and lack of political will and empirical evidence to remove these barriers are the main problems identified. The opportunities reflected largely correspond to these barriers and highlight the role of key actors, such as the EU, in setting standards. Projects focusing on fixing the number of women under-represented in certain fields and occupations and management positions predominate among good practices. Keywords: .gender equality; gender in entrepreneurship; gender in science; gender in innovation; gender stereotypes; good practices Available in digital repository of the ASCR
Key barriers, opportunities and good practices for entrepreneurship and innovation

The report is focused on barriers, opportunities and good practices for gender-sensitive innovations and entrepreneurship. It is based on the analysis of 36 interviews with experts from the health, ...

Křížková, Alena; Marková Volejníčková, Romana; Pospíšilová, Marie; Vohlídalová, Marta
Sociologický ústav, 2023

Infants' learning of novel segments is modulated by prosody
Chládková, Kateřina; Podlipský, V.J.; Nudga, Natalia; Paillereau, Nikola; Kynčlová, Kateřina; Šimáčková, Š.
2023 - English
Young infants recognize atypical realisations of native-language speech. Later they learn words better from native-accented talkers. However, 6-month-olds preferentially listen to unfamiliar speech. We tested whether the learning of new vowels matches 6-month-olds’ listening preferences, being more effective from nonnative-accented speech. We exposed Czech six-month-olds to delexicalised utterances with consonants replaced by [f] and vowels by 405 tokens sampled from a bimodal [ɛ]-[æ] distribution, a contrast absent from Czech, and with either native or atypical rhythm. Discrimination of [ɛ]-[æ] was then tested in an alternating/non-alternating paradigm. Longer first-look duration to non-alternating than to alternating trials – indicating a learning effect – was found in infants familiarised with the novel contrast in atypical rhythm, such effect was not\ndetected after familiarisation with native rhythm. Six-month-olds thus more effectively exploit distributional information about novel vowels from non-native rhythm, which matches their previously reported preferences for listening to novel over familiar accents. Keywords: distributional learning; selective learning; non-native rhythm; vowels; infancy Available on request at various institutes of the ASCR
Infants' learning of novel segments is modulated by prosody

Young infants recognize atypical realisations of native-language speech. Later they learn words better from native-accented talkers. However, 6-month-olds preferentially listen to unfamiliar speech. ...

Chládková, Kateřina; Podlipský, V.J.; Nudga, Natalia; Paillereau, Nikola; Kynčlová, Kateřina; Šimáčková, Š.
Psychologický ústav, 2023

Parental allowance increase and labour supply: evidence from a Czech reform
Grossmann, Jakub; Pertold, Filip; Šoltés, M.
2023 - English
We study the effect of a CZK 80,000 (36%) increase in parental allowance, a universal basic income-type benefit, on the labor supply of parents in the Czech Republic. Drawing a parental allowance does not preclude labor market activity, which allows us to study the income effect. After the reform, mothers substantially prolonged the average period they drew an allowance. The labor market participation of mothers of young children decreased by 6 percentage points (15%). The estimated effect corresponds to a non-labor income labor supply elasticity at the extensive margin of about -0.5. The effect is particularly strong among mothers with their first child (10 p.p. or 28%) and among university-educated mothers (16 p.p. or 36%). We observe a virtually identical reduction in hours worked. We found no effect on the labor supply of fathers. Keywords: parental allowance; maternal labor supply; income effect of social policy Fulltext is available at external website.
Parental allowance increase and labour supply: evidence from a Czech reform

We study the effect of a CZK 80,000 (36%) increase in parental allowance, a universal basic income-type benefit, on the labor supply of parents in the Czech Republic. Drawing a parental allowance does ...

Grossmann, Jakub; Pertold, Filip; Šoltés, M.
Národohospodářský ústav, 2023

Voting under debtor distress
Grossmann, Jakub; Jurajda, Štěpán
2023 - English
There is growing evidence on the role of economic conditions in the recent successes of populist and extremist parties. However, little is known about the role of over-indebtedness, even though debtor distress has grown in Europe following the financial crisis. We study the unique case of the Czech Republic, where by 2017, nearly one in ten citizens had been served at least one debtor distress warrant even though the country consistently features low unemployment. Our municipality-level difference-in-differences analysis asks about the voting consequences of a rise in debtor distress following a 2001 deregulation of consumer-debt collection. We find that debtor distress has a positive effect on support for (new) extreme right and populist parties, but a negative effect on a (traditional) extreme-left party. The effects of debtor distress we uncover are robust to whether and how we control for economic hardship, the effects of debtor distress and economic hardship are of similar magnitude, but operate in opposing directions across the political spectrum. Keywords: debtor distress; distress warrants; populist parties Fulltext is available at external website.
Voting under debtor distress

There is growing evidence on the role of economic conditions in the recent successes of populist and extremist parties. However, little is known about the role of over-indebtedness, even though debtor ...

Grossmann, Jakub; Jurajda, Štěpán
Národohospodářský ústav, 2023

The long-term impact of energy poverty and its mitigation on educational attainment: evidence from China
Martirosyan, Yervand
2023 - English
Existing studies demonstrate the short-run connection between environmental conditions and academic performance. However, the long-term effects of exposure to adverse living conditions on academic achievement remain underexplored. This study investigates the long-term impact of energy poverty, and policy interventions aimed at alleviating it, on the academic performance of Chinese schoolchildren starting from infancy. It specifically utilizes the Huai River Policy, which provides free winter heating exclusively to northern regions in China but not to adjacent southern regions. My findings suggest a significant positive influence of winter heating on schoolchildren’s academic performance, with a more pronounced effect for children born during winter months. The insights gained from this research could inform policy debates to enhance educational outcomes and human well-being.\n Keywords: energy poverty; academic performance; climate Fulltext is available at external website.
The long-term impact of energy poverty and its mitigation on educational attainment: evidence from China

Existing studies demonstrate the short-run connection between environmental conditions and academic performance. However, the long-term effects of exposure to adverse living conditions on academic ...

Martirosyan, Yervand
Národohospodářský ústav, 2023

Caves in Bohemia et Moravia Subterranea by Mauritius Vogt (1669–1730)
Rychnová, L.; Vokurka, Michal
2023 - English
The Manuscript Bohemia et Moravia Subterranea (1729) by Mauritius Vogt reflects the subterranean landscapes and underground spaces based on Athanasius Kircher’s theories. The paper analyses the application of Kirchers’s terminology to the natural phenomena from Bohemia and Moravia. Further, we focused on how Vogt worked with his sources – how far he relied on literature, correspondence, or personal experience. Keywords: Mauritius Vogt; caves; subterranean; underground; early modern period Available at various institutes of the ASCR
Caves in Bohemia et Moravia Subterranea by Mauritius Vogt (1669–1730)

The Manuscript Bohemia et Moravia Subterranea (1729) by Mauritius Vogt reflects the subterranean landscapes and underground spaces based on Athanasius Kircher’s theories. The paper analyses the ...

Rychnová, L.; Vokurka, Michal
Historický ústav, 2023

The Prager musikalisches Album (1838) and the nineteenth-century salon as cultural practice
Bunzel, Anja
2023 - English
This article deals with a collection of songs and piano pieces, the Prager musikalisches Album, published in 1838, asking two central questions. Drawing on different concepts of the musical work (Werkbegriff), I explore whether the album can be considered a work rather than a loose collection of multiple works. Within the musicological discourse there have been many attempts at defining these terms, ranging from quite narrow categorisations based on aspects of instrumentation, musical form, or stylistic matters to more open approaches encompassing the communicative process and viewing the history of genre as cultural history. Drawing on the latter, I suggest that the Prager musikalisches Album is a prime example of collective authorship, which opens up a second question, namely that of authorship. Authorship may embrace aspects of agency that exceed the realms of the person who penned a musical, literary, or artistic work. Indeed, it may be shaped by performers, audiences, presses/ salespeople, dedicatees, critics, patrons, and anyone else who has an impact on any given work at the time of its creation and/or publicization. By taking this perspective, I suggest that the Prager musikalisches Album is both reflective and representative of nineteenth-century salon culture, within whose context the album was embedded. Offering a holistic analysis of the album and its context, I use this article as a springboard to advocate for a musical historiography that takes into account the full breadth of musical culture, and which embraces, besides composers and poets, a number of other cultural agents that are often overlooked within more traditional music-historical considerations. Keywords: nineteenth-century salon; genre; work; Prague; authorship Available at various institutes of the ASCR
The Prager musikalisches Album (1838) and the nineteenth-century salon as cultural practice

This article deals with a collection of songs and piano pieces, the Prager musikalisches Album, published in 1838, asking two central questions. Drawing on different concepts of the musical work ...

Bunzel, Anja
Ústav dějin umění, 2023

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