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The American origin of the French Revolution
Ottinger, Sebastian; Rosenberger, L.
2024 - English
We show that the French combatants’ exposure to the United States increased support for the French Revolution a decade later. French regions from which more American combatants originated had more revolts against feudal institutions, revolutionary societies, volunteers for the revolutionary army, and emigrants from the Old Regime’s elite. To establish causality, we exploit two historical coincidences: i) originally, a French army of seven and a half thousand was ready to sail, but one-third did not, ii) among those deployed, only some regiments were stationed in New England. Only combatants exposed to New England affected the French Revolution after their return.
Keywords:
institutional change; French Revolution; American War of Independence
Fulltext is available at external website.
The American origin of the French Revolution
We show that the French combatants’ exposure to the United States increased support for the French Revolution a decade later. French regions from which more American combatants originated had more ...
COVID-19 and political preferences through stages of the pandemic: the case of the Czech Republic
Bičáková, Alena; Jurajda, Štěpán
2024 - English
We track the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on political preferences through ‘high’ and ‘low’ phases of the pandemic. We ask about the effects of the health and the economic costs of the pandemic measured at both personal and municipality levels. Consistent with the literature, we estimate effects suggestive of political accountability of leaders during ‘high’ pandemic phases. However, we also find that the pandemic political accountability effects are mostly short-lived, and do not extend to the first post-pandemic elections.
Keywords:
COVID-19; political preferences; election outcomes
Fulltext is available at external website.
COVID-19 and political preferences through stages of the pandemic: the case of the Czech Republic
We track the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on political preferences through ‘high’ and ‘low’ phases of the pandemic. We ask about the effects of the health and the economic costs of the pandemic ...
Matching to suppliers in the production network: an empirical framework
Alfaro-Ureña, A.; Zacchia, Paolo
2024 - English
This paper develops a framework for the empirical analysis of the determinants of input supplier choice on the extensive margin using firm-to-firm transaction data. Building on a theoretical model of production network formation, we characterize the assumptions that enable a transformation of the multinomial logit likelihood function from which the seller fixed effects, which encode the seller marginal costs, vanish. This transformation conditions, for each subnetwork restricted to one supplier industry, on the out-degree of sellers (a sufficient statistic for the seller fixed effect) and the in-degree of buyers (which is pinned down by technology and by “make-or-buy” decisions). This approach delivers a consistent estimator for the effect of dyadic explanatory variables, which in our model are interpreted as matching frictions, on the supplier choice probability. The estimator is easy to implement and in Monte Carlo simulations it outperforms alternatives based on group fixed effects. In an empirical application about the effect of a major Costa Rican infrastructural project on firm-to-firm connections, our approach yields estimates typically much smaller in magnitude than those from naive multinomial logit.
Keywords:
production network; supplier choice; conditional logit
Fulltext is available at external website.
Matching to suppliers in the production network: an empirical framework
This paper develops a framework for the empirical analysis of the determinants of input supplier choice on the extensive margin using firm-to-firm transaction data. Building on a theoretical model of ...
Disappearing stepping stones: technological change and career paths
Kashkarov, Daniil; Artemev, V.
2024 - English
Which career paths lead workers towards high-skilled non-routine cognitive occupations? Using PSID data, we show that, for a significant share of workers, a career path towards non-routine cognitive occupations goes through middle-skilled routine occupations, with the majority going through a subset of routine cognitive occupations. We then argue that the decline in employment in routine cognitive occupations due to routine-biased technological change can negatively affect the chances of younger cohorts joining high-skilled occupations. To test this hypothesis, we develop a structural occupational choice model that endogenously generates realistic career paths and estimate it using PSID data and job ad data from three major US outlets covering the period from 1940 to 2000. Our estimations suggest that, on average, 6% of workers ending up in non-routine cognitive occupations use routine cognitive occupations as stepping stones that allow them to maintain and accumulate human capital and experience relevant for later employment in high-skilled occupations. A fall in employment opportunities in routine cognitive occupations over the period of the most intensive routine-biased technological change led to at least 1.37 million lost high-skilled workers who got stuck in less skilled occupations.
Keywords:
routine-biased technological change; occupational choice; human capital
Fulltext is available at external website.
Disappearing stepping stones: technological change and career paths
Which career paths lead workers towards high-skilled non-routine cognitive occupations? Using PSID data, we show that, for a significant share of workers, a career path towards non-routine cognitive ...
Professional survey forecasts and expectations in DSGE models
Rychalovska, Y.; Slobodyan, Sergey; Wouters, R.
2023 - English
In this paper, we demonstrate the usefulness of survey data for macroeconomic analysis and propose a strategy to integrate and efficiently utilize information from surveys in the DSGE setup. We extend the set of observable variables to include the data on consumption, investment, output, and inflation expectations, as measured by the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). By doing so, we aim to discipline the dynamics of model-based expectations and evaluate alternative belief models. Our approach to exploit the timely information from surveys is based on re-specification of structural shocks into persistent and transitory components. Due to the SPF, we are able to improve identification of fundamental shocks and predictive power of the model by separating the sources of low and high frequency volatility. Furthermore, we show that models with an imperfectly-rational expectation formation mechanism based on Adaptive Learning (AL) can reduce important limitations implied by the Rational Expectation (RE) hypothesis. More specifically, our models based on belief updating can better capture macroeconomic trend shifts and, as a result, achieve superior long-term predictions. In addition, the AL mechanism can produce realistic time variation in the transmission of shocks and perceived macro-economic volatility, which allows the model to better explain the investment dynamics. Finally, AL models, which relax the RE constraint of internal consistency between the agents’ and model forecasts, can reproduce the main features of agents’ predictions in line with SPF evidence and, at the same time, can generate improved model forecasts, thus diminishing possible inefficiencies present in surveys.
Keywords:
expectations; survey data; adaptive learning
Fulltext is available at external website.
Professional survey forecasts and expectations in DSGE models
In this paper, we demonstrate the usefulness of survey data for macroeconomic analysis and propose a strategy to integrate and efficiently utilize information from surveys in the DSGE setup. We extend ...
Gender gap in reported childcare preferences among parents
Pertold, Filip; Sinani, S.; Šoltés, M.
2023 - English
The child penalty explains the majority of gender employment and wage gaps, however, less is known about the factors driving the child penalty itself. In this paper, we study the gender gap in childcare preferences as a potential factor that contributes to the child penalty. We surveyed Czech parents and elicited the minimal compensation they would require to stay home to care for a child. Mothers require less compensation for childcare than fathers. The estimated gender gap in childcare preferences is CZK 2,500 monthly, 7.6% of the median female wage, and cannot be explained by differences in labor market opportunities or prosocial motives to care for a family member. We further document widespread misperception of fathers’ preferences, as respondents incorrectly expect fathers to require less to care for a child than to care for an elderly parent.\n
Keywords:
childcare; gender wage gap; gender employment gap
Fulltext is available at external website.
Gender gap in reported childcare preferences among parents
The child penalty explains the majority of gender employment and wage gaps, however, less is known about the factors driving the child penalty itself. In this paper, we study the gender gap in ...
Inflation expectations in the wake of the war in Ukraine
Afunts, Geghetsik; Cato, M.; Schmidt, T.
2023 - English
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is posing a range of new challenges to the global economy, including affecting the inflation expectations of individuals. In this paper, we aim to quantify the effect of the invasion on short- and long-term inflation expectations of individuals in Germany. We use microdata from the Bundesbank Online Panel - Households (BOP-HH), for the period from February 15th to March 29th, 2022. Treating the unanticipated start of the war in Ukraine on the 24th of February 2022 as a natural experiment, we find that both short- and long-term inflation expectations increased as an immediate result of the invasion. Long-term inflation expectations increased by around 0.4 percentage points, while the impact on short-term inflation expectations was more than twice as large - around one percentage point. Looking into the possible mechanisms of this increase, we suggest that it can be partially attributed to individuals’ fears of soaring energy prices and increasing pessimism about economic trends in general. Our results indicate that large economic shocks can have a substantial impact on both short and long-term inflation expectations.
Keywords:
inflation expectations; Russian invasion of Ukraine; survey
Fulltext is available at external website.
Inflation expectations in the wake of the war in Ukraine
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is posing a range of new challenges to the global economy, including affecting the inflation expectations of individuals. In this paper, we aim to quantify the effect of ...
Parental allowance increase and labour supply: evidence from a Czech reform
Grossmann, Jakub; Pertold, Filip; Šoltés, M.
2023 - English
We study the effect of a CZK 80,000 (36%) increase in parental allowance, a universal basic income-type benefit, on the labor supply of parents in the Czech Republic. Drawing a parental allowance does not preclude labor market activity, which allows us to study the income effect. After the reform, mothers substantially prolonged the average period they drew an allowance. The labor market participation of mothers of young children decreased by 6 percentage points (15%). The estimated effect corresponds to a non-labor income labor supply elasticity at the extensive margin of about -0.5. The effect is particularly strong among mothers with their first child (10 p.p. or 28%) and among university-educated mothers (16 p.p. or 36%). We observe a virtually identical reduction in hours worked. We found no effect on the labor supply of fathers.
Keywords:
parental allowance; maternal labor supply; income effect of social policy
Fulltext is available at external website.
Parental allowance increase and labour supply: evidence from a Czech reform
We study the effect of a CZK 80,000 (36%) increase in parental allowance, a universal basic income-type benefit, on the labor supply of parents in the Czech Republic. Drawing a parental allowance does ...
Voting under debtor distress
Grossmann, Jakub; Jurajda, Štěpán
2023 - English
There is growing evidence on the role of economic conditions in the recent successes of populist and extremist parties. However, little is known about the role of over-indebtedness, even though debtor distress has grown in Europe following the financial crisis. We study the unique case of the Czech Republic, where by 2017, nearly one in ten citizens had been served at least one debtor distress warrant even though the country consistently features low unemployment. Our municipality-level difference-in-differences analysis asks about the voting consequences of a rise in debtor distress following a 2001 deregulation of consumer-debt collection. We find that debtor distress has a positive effect on support for (new) extreme right and populist parties, but a negative effect on a (traditional) extreme-left party. The effects of debtor distress we uncover are robust to whether and how we control for economic hardship, the effects of debtor distress and economic hardship are of similar magnitude, but operate in opposing directions across the political spectrum.
Keywords:
debtor distress; distress warrants; populist parties
Fulltext is available at external website.
Voting under debtor distress
There is growing evidence on the role of economic conditions in the recent successes of populist and extremist parties. However, little is known about the role of over-indebtedness, even though debtor ...
The long-term impact of energy poverty and its mitigation on educational attainment: evidence from China
Martirosyan, Yervand
2023 - English
Existing studies demonstrate the short-run connection between environmental conditions and academic performance. However, the long-term effects of exposure to adverse living conditions on academic achievement remain underexplored. This study investigates the long-term impact of energy poverty, and policy interventions aimed at alleviating it, on the academic performance of Chinese schoolchildren starting from infancy. It specifically utilizes the Huai River Policy, which provides free winter heating exclusively to northern regions in China but not to adjacent southern regions. My findings suggest a significant positive influence of winter heating on schoolchildren’s academic performance, with a more pronounced effect for children born during winter months. The insights gained from this research could inform policy debates to enhance educational outcomes and human well-being.\n
Keywords:
energy poverty; academic performance; climate
Fulltext is available at external website.
The long-term impact of energy poverty and its mitigation on educational attainment: evidence from China
Existing studies demonstrate the short-run connection between environmental conditions and academic performance. However, the long-term effects of exposure to adverse living conditions on academic ...
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