Number of found documents: 615
Published from to

Inflation expectations in the wake of the war in Ukraine
Afunts, Geghetsik; Cato, M.; Schmidt, T.
2023 - English
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is posing a range of new challenges to the global economy, including affecting the inflation expectations of individuals. In this paper, we aim to quantify the effect of the invasion on short- and long-term inflation expectations of individuals in Germany. We use microdata from the Bundesbank Online Panel - Households (BOP-HH), for the period from February 15th to March 29th, 2022. Treating the unanticipated start of the war in Ukraine on the 24th of February 2022 as a natural experiment, we find that both short- and long-term inflation expectations increased as an immediate result of the invasion. Long-term inflation expectations increased by around 0.4 percentage points, while the impact on short-term inflation expectations was more than twice as large - around one percentage point. Looking into the possible mechanisms of this increase, we suggest that it can be partially attributed to individuals’ fears of soaring energy prices and increasing pessimism about economic trends in general. Our results indicate that large economic shocks can have a substantial impact on both short and long-term inflation expectations. Keywords: inflation expectations; Russian invasion of Ukraine; survey Fulltext is available at external website.
Inflation expectations in the wake of the war in Ukraine

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is posing a range of new challenges to the global economy, including affecting the inflation expectations of individuals. In this paper, we aim to quantify the effect of ...

Afunts, Geghetsik; Cato, M.; Schmidt, T.
Národohospodářský ústav, 2023

Professional survey forecasts and expectations in DSGE models
Rychalovska, Y.; Slobodyan, Sergey; Wouters, R.
2023 - English
In this paper, we demonstrate the usefulness of survey data for macroeconomic analysis and propose a strategy to integrate and efficiently utilize information from surveys in the DSGE setup. We extend the set of observable variables to include the data on consumption, investment, output, and inflation expectations, as measured by the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). By doing so, we aim to discipline the dynamics of model-based expectations and evaluate alternative belief models. Our approach to exploit the timely information from surveys is based on re-specification of structural shocks into persistent and transitory components. Due to the SPF, we are able to improve identification of fundamental shocks and predictive power of the model by separating the sources of low and high frequency volatility. Furthermore, we show that models with an imperfectly-rational expectation formation mechanism based on Adaptive Learning (AL) can reduce important limitations implied by the Rational Expectation (RE) hypothesis. More specifically, our models based on belief updating can better capture macroeconomic trend shifts and, as a result, achieve superior long-term predictions. In addition, the AL mechanism can produce realistic time variation in the transmission of shocks and perceived macro-economic volatility, which allows the model to better explain the investment dynamics. Finally, AL models, which relax the RE constraint of internal consistency between the agents’ and model forecasts, can reproduce the main features of agents’ predictions in line with SPF evidence and, at the same time, can generate improved model forecasts, thus diminishing possible inefficiencies present in surveys. Keywords: expectations; survey data; adaptive learning Fulltext is available at external website.
Professional survey forecasts and expectations in DSGE models

In this paper, we demonstrate the usefulness of survey data for macroeconomic analysis and propose a strategy to integrate and efficiently utilize information from surveys in the DSGE setup. We extend ...

Rychalovska, Y.; Slobodyan, Sergey; Wouters, R.
Národohospodářský ústav, 2023

Gender gap in reported childcare preferences among parents
Pertold, Filip; Sinani, S.; Šoltés, M.
2023 - English
The child penalty explains the majority of gender employment and wage gaps, however, less is known about the factors driving the child penalty itself. In this paper, we study the gender gap in childcare preferences as a potential factor that contributes to the child penalty. We surveyed Czech parents and elicited the minimal compensation they would require to stay home to care for a child. Mothers require less compensation for childcare than fathers. The estimated gender gap in childcare preferences is CZK 2,500 monthly, 7.6% of the median female wage, and cannot be explained by differences in labor market opportunities or prosocial motives to care for a family member. We further document widespread misperception of fathers’ preferences, as respondents incorrectly expect fathers to require less to care for a child than to care for an elderly parent.\n Keywords: childcare; gender wage gap; gender employment gap Fulltext is available at external website.
Gender gap in reported childcare preferences among parents

The child penalty explains the majority of gender employment and wage gaps, however, less is known about the factors driving the child penalty itself. In this paper, we study the gender gap in ...

Pertold, Filip; Sinani, S.; Šoltés, M.
Národohospodářský ústav, 2023

Key barriers, opportunities and good practices for entrepreneurship and innovation
Křížková, Alena; Marková Volejníčková, Romana; Pospíšilová, Marie; Vohlídalová, Marta
2023 - English
The report is focused on barriers, opportunities and good practices for gender-sensitive innovations and entrepreneurship. It is based on the analysis of 36 interviews with experts from the health, green and digital fields and the target groups defined in the quadruple helix of academia, citizens, industry, and government. The interviews were collected by 12 GILL partners in the 10 consortium countries in 2023. Gender stereotypical cultural beliefs and norms, masculine bias, gender segregation, lack of funding, lack of policies to support work-life balance and lack of political will and empirical evidence to remove these barriers are the main problems identified. The opportunities reflected largely correspond to these barriers and highlight the role of key actors, such as the EU, in setting standards. Projects focusing on fixing the number of women under-represented in certain fields and occupations and management positions predominate among good practices. Keywords: .gender equality; gender in entrepreneurship; gender in science; gender in innovation; gender stereotypes; good practices Available in digital repository of the ASCR
Key barriers, opportunities and good practices for entrepreneurship and innovation

The report is focused on barriers, opportunities and good practices for gender-sensitive innovations and entrepreneurship. It is based on the analysis of 36 interviews with experts from the health, ...

Křížková, Alena; Marková Volejníčková, Romana; Pospíšilová, Marie; Vohlídalová, Marta
Sociologický ústav, 2023

Parental allowance increase and labour supply: evidence from a Czech reform
Grossmann, Jakub; Pertold, Filip; Šoltés, M.
2023 - English
We study the effect of a CZK 80,000 (36%) increase in parental allowance, a universal basic income-type benefit, on the labor supply of parents in the Czech Republic. Drawing a parental allowance does not preclude labor market activity, which allows us to study the income effect. After the reform, mothers substantially prolonged the average period they drew an allowance. The labor market participation of mothers of young children decreased by 6 percentage points (15%). The estimated effect corresponds to a non-labor income labor supply elasticity at the extensive margin of about -0.5. The effect is particularly strong among mothers with their first child (10 p.p. or 28%) and among university-educated mothers (16 p.p. or 36%). We observe a virtually identical reduction in hours worked. We found no effect on the labor supply of fathers. Keywords: parental allowance; maternal labor supply; income effect of social policy Fulltext is available at external website.
Parental allowance increase and labour supply: evidence from a Czech reform

We study the effect of a CZK 80,000 (36%) increase in parental allowance, a universal basic income-type benefit, on the labor supply of parents in the Czech Republic. Drawing a parental allowance does ...

Grossmann, Jakub; Pertold, Filip; Šoltés, M.
Národohospodářský ústav, 2023

Voting under debtor distress
Grossmann, Jakub; Jurajda, Štěpán
2023 - English
There is growing evidence on the role of economic conditions in the recent successes of populist and extremist parties. However, little is known about the role of over-indebtedness, even though debtor distress has grown in Europe following the financial crisis. We study the unique case of the Czech Republic, where by 2017, nearly one in ten citizens had been served at least one debtor distress warrant even though the country consistently features low unemployment. Our municipality-level difference-in-differences analysis asks about the voting consequences of a rise in debtor distress following a 2001 deregulation of consumer-debt collection. We find that debtor distress has a positive effect on support for (new) extreme right and populist parties, but a negative effect on a (traditional) extreme-left party. The effects of debtor distress we uncover are robust to whether and how we control for economic hardship, the effects of debtor distress and economic hardship are of similar magnitude, but operate in opposing directions across the political spectrum. Keywords: debtor distress; distress warrants; populist parties Fulltext is available at external website.
Voting under debtor distress

There is growing evidence on the role of economic conditions in the recent successes of populist and extremist parties. However, little is known about the role of over-indebtedness, even though debtor ...

Grossmann, Jakub; Jurajda, Štěpán
Národohospodářský ústav, 2023

The long-term impact of energy poverty and its mitigation on educational attainment: evidence from China
Martirosyan, Yervand
2023 - English
Existing studies demonstrate the short-run connection between environmental conditions and academic performance. However, the long-term effects of exposure to adverse living conditions on academic achievement remain underexplored. This study investigates the long-term impact of energy poverty, and policy interventions aimed at alleviating it, on the academic performance of Chinese schoolchildren starting from infancy. It specifically utilizes the Huai River Policy, which provides free winter heating exclusively to northern regions in China but not to adjacent southern regions. My findings suggest a significant positive influence of winter heating on schoolchildren’s academic performance, with a more pronounced effect for children born during winter months. The insights gained from this research could inform policy debates to enhance educational outcomes and human well-being.\n Keywords: energy poverty; academic performance; climate Fulltext is available at external website.
The long-term impact of energy poverty and its mitigation on educational attainment: evidence from China

Existing studies demonstrate the short-run connection between environmental conditions and academic performance. However, the long-term effects of exposure to adverse living conditions on academic ...

Martirosyan, Yervand
Národohospodářský ústav, 2023

Are subsidies to business R&D effective? Regression discontinuity evidence from the TA CR ALFA programme
Bajgar, Matěj; Srholec, Martin
2023 - English
Governments subsidise business research and experimental development (R&D) to promote development of the economy, because externalities and information asymmetries inherent to the innovation process make private funding of these activities fall short of what is socially desirable. Nevertheless, how effective such subsidies are and whether they achieve their goals is an open question that needs to be studied empirically. This study leverages the state-of-the-art method of regression discontinuity (RD) that allows us to come very close to making causal inferences about the effects of subsidies, to find out whether the Technology Agency of the Czech Republic’s (TA CR) ALFA programme stimulated new business R&D inputs, outputs, and positive economic impacts that would not have happened otherwise. Keywords: government subsidies; innovations; economic development Fulltext is available at external website.
Are subsidies to business R&D effective? Regression discontinuity evidence from the TA CR ALFA programme

Governments subsidise business research and experimental development (R&D) to promote development of the economy, because externalities and information asymmetries inherent to the innovation process ...

Bajgar, Matěj; Srholec, Martin
Národohospodářský ústav, 2023

“Crime and punishment”? How banks anticipate and propagate global financial sanctions
Mamonov, Mikhail; Pestova, Anna; Ongena, S.
2023 - English
We study the impacts of global financial sanctions on banks and their corporate borrowers in Russia. Financial sanctions were imposed consecutively between 2014 and 2019, allowing targeted (but not-yet-sanctioned) banks to adapt their international and domestic exposures in advance. Using a staggered difference-in-differences approach with in-advance adaptation to anticipated treatment, we establish that targeted banks immediately reduced their foreign assets and actually increased their international borrowings after the first sanction announcement compared to other similar banks. We reveal that the added value of the next sanction announcements was rather limited. Despite considerable outflow of domestic private deposits, the government support prevented disorderly bank failures and resulted in credit reshuffling: the banks contracted corporate lending by 4% of GDP and increased household lending by almost the same magnitude, which mostly offset the total economic loss. Further, we introduce a two-stage treatment diffusion approach that flexibly addresses potential spillovers of the sanctions to private banks with political connections. Employing unique hand-collected board membership and bank location data, our approach shows that throughout this period, politically-connected banks were not all equally recognized as potential sanction targets. Finally, using syndicated loan data, we establish that the real negative effects of sanctions materialized only when sanctioned firms were borrowing from sanctioned banks. When borrowing from unsanctioned banks, sanctioned firms even gained in terms of employment and investment but still lost in terms of market sales pointing to a misallocation of government support. Keywords: staggered policy implementation; anticipation effects; treatment diffusion Fulltext is available at external website.
“Crime and punishment”? How banks anticipate and propagate global financial sanctions

We study the impacts of global financial sanctions on banks and their corporate borrowers in Russia. Financial sanctions were imposed consecutively between 2014 and 2019, allowing targeted (but ...

Mamonov, Mikhail; Pestova, Anna; Ongena, S.
Národohospodářský ústav, 2023

The effects of government spending in segmented labor and financial markets
Stojanović, Dušan
2023 - English
This paper develops a model with high-skilled and low-skilled workers to show the expansionary effects of government spending despite large training costs for new hires. The main idea is that a fiscal stimulus induces changes in the composition of the labor force conditional on the extent of aggregate demand pressure. A period of high aggregate demand pressure is followed by a high value of forgone output as training activity causes production disruption. In this period firms decide to hire more low-skilled workers, who constitute a cheaper part of the labor force. When aggregate demand pressure is diminished, firms switch to hiring more high-skilled workers. However, the current literature considers only high-skilled workers, who tend to increase saving in government bonds to protect against poor employment prospects. In this case, the combination of weak employment prospects and the crowding-out effects of higher lump-sum taxes and government debt on private consumption and capital investment gives rise to recessionary effects. In contrast, this paper provides a model with a more realistic labor and financial market structure and suggests that countercyclical government spending in the form of government consumption and especially government investment can be used to deal with recessions.\n Keywords: government spending; training cost; search and match frictions Fulltext is available at external website.
The effects of government spending in segmented labor and financial markets

This paper develops a model with high-skilled and low-skilled workers to show the expansionary effects of government spending despite large training costs for new hires. The main idea is that a fiscal ...

Stojanović, Dušan
Národohospodářský ústav, 2023

About project

NRGL provides central access to information on grey literature produced in the Czech Republic in the fields of science, research and education. You can find more information about grey literature and NRGL at service web

Send your suggestions and comments to nusl@techlib.cz

Provider

http://www.techlib.cz

Facebook

Other bases