Number of found documents: 445
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Racial discrimination and lost innovation: evidence from US inventors, 1895–1925
Coluccia, D. M.; Dossi, G.; Ottinger, Sebastian
2023 - English
How can racial discrimination harm innovation? We study this question using data on US inventors linked to population censuses in 1895-1925. Our novel identification strategy leverages plausibly exogenous variation in the timing of lynchings and the name of the victims. We find an immediate and persistent decrease in patents granted to inventors who share their names with the victims of lynchings, but only when victims are Black. We hypothesize that lynchings accentuate the racial content of the victim’s name to patent examiners, who do not observe inventor race from patent applications. We interpret these findings as evidence of discrimination by patent examiners and provide evidence against alternative mechanisms. Keywords: discrimination; innovation; lynchings Fulltext is available at external website.
Racial discrimination and lost innovation: evidence from US inventors, 1895–1925

How can racial discrimination harm innovation? We study this question using data on US inventors linked to population censuses in 1895-1925. Our novel identification strategy leverages plausibly ...

Coluccia, D. M.; Dossi, G.; Ottinger, Sebastian
Národohospodářský ústav, 2023

(Ne)zvyšování sociálních dávek v letech 2012–2023: přehled
Janský, Petr; Kolář, Daniel
2023 - Czech
V tomto přehledu mapujeme vývoj dávek sociálního charakteru v posledních deseti letech ve srovnání s vývojem inflace, průměrných mezd a starobních důchodů. Pokud má být zachována reálná kupní síla dávek, měl by jejich růst odpovídat alespoň inflaci. Pokud má úroveň sociálního zajištění držet krok s dlouhodobým ekonomickým vývojem, měla by se úroveň dávek zvyšovat zhruba tempem růstu mezd v ekonomice a objem výdajů na dávky zhruba tempem růstu HDP. In this overview, we map trends in the value of social benefits over the past ten years and compare them to trends in inflation, average salaries and old age pensions. If the real purchase power of benefits is to remain stable, they should be raised at least at the same rate as inflation. If we want social benefits to continue to provide the same level of financial security, keeping pace with economic developments in the long term, then their value should rise at approximately the same rate as the average salary, and spending on benefits should increase at approximately the same rate as GDP. Keywords: social benefits; real purchase power; inflation Fulltext is available at external website.
(Ne)zvyšování sociálních dávek v letech 2012–2023: přehled

V tomto přehledu mapujeme vývoj dávek sociálního charakteru v posledních deseti letech ve srovnání s vývojem inflace, průměrných mezd a starobních důchodů. Pokud má být zachována reálná kupní síla ...

Janský, Petr; Kolář, Daniel
Národohospodářský ústav, 2023

Quo vadis? Evidence on new firm-bank matching and firm performance following “sin” bank closures
Goncharenko, R.; Mamonov, Mikhail; Ongena, S.; Popova, S.; Turdyeva, N.
2023 - English
In this paper, we analyze how firms search for new lenders after a financial regulator forcibly closes their prior banks, and what happens to the firms’ performance during this transition period. In 2013, the Central Bank of Russia launched a large-scale bank closure policy and started detecting fraudulent (sin) banks and revoking their licenses. By 2020, two-thirds of all operating banks had been shuttered. We analyze this unique period in history using credit register data. First, we establish that before sin bank closures, there was no informational leakage and the borrowing firms remain unaffected. After the closures, there is a clear sorting pattern: poorly-performing firms rush to other (not-yet-detected) sin banks, while profitable firms transfer to financially solid banks. We find that the coupling of poorly-performing firms and not-yet-detected sin banks occurs more frequently when the two sin banks (the prior and the next lender) are commonly owned or when the local banking market is unconcentrated. Finally, we show that during the transition period (i.e., after the sin bank closures and before matching to new banks), poorly-performing firms shrink in size and experience a sharp decline in borrowings and market sales, whereas profitable firms strengthen in terms of employment, investment, and market sales. A potential mechanism involves credit risk underpricing by sin banks: we find that poorly-performing firms (especially commonly owned) received loans at lower interest rates than profitable firms prior to sin bank closures. Keywords: credit register; bank clean-up; regulatory forbearance Fulltext is available at external website.
Quo vadis? Evidence on new firm-bank matching and firm performance following “sin” bank closures

In this paper, we analyze how firms search for new lenders after a financial regulator forcibly closes their prior banks, and what happens to the firms’ performance during this transition period. In ...

Goncharenko, R.; Mamonov, Mikhail; Ongena, S.; Popova, S.; Turdyeva, N.
Národohospodářský ústav, 2023

The price of war: macroeconomic and cross-sectional effects of sanctions on Russia
Mamonov, Mikhail; Pestova, Anna
2023 - English
How much do sanctions harm the sanctioned economy? We examine the case of Russia, which has faced three major waves of international sanctions over the last decade (in 2014, 2017, and 2022). In a VAR model of the Russian economy, we first apply sign restrictions to isolate shocks to international credit supply to proxy for the financial sanctions shocks. We provide a microeconomic foundation for the sign restriction approach by exploiting the syndicated loan deals in Russia. We then explore the effects of the overall sanctions shocks (financial, trade, technological, etc.) by employing a high-frequency identification (HFI) approach. Our HFI is based on each OFAC/EU sanction announcement and the associated daily changes in the yield-to-maturity of Russia’s US dollar-denominated sovereign bonds. Our macroeconomic estimates indicate that Russia’s GDP may have lost no more than 0.8% due to the financial sanctions shock, and up to 3.2% due to the overall sanctions shock cumulatively over the 2014–2015 period. In 2017, the respective effects are 0 and 0.5%, and in 2022, they are 8 and 12%. Our cross-sectional estimates show that the real income of richer households declines by 1.5–2.0% during the first year after the sanctions shock, whereas the real income of poorer households rises by 1.2% over the same period. Finally, we find that the real total revenue of large firms with high (low) TFPs declines by 2.2 (4.0)% during the first year after the sanctions shock, whereas the effects on small firms are close to zero. Overall, our results indicate heterogeneous effects of sanctions with richer households residing in big cities and larger firms with high TFPs being affected the most. Keywords: sanctions news shock; monetary policy; commodity terms-of-trade Fulltext is available at external website.
The price of war: macroeconomic and cross-sectional effects of sanctions on Russia

How much do sanctions harm the sanctioned economy? We examine the case of Russia, which has faced three major waves of international sanctions over the last decade (in 2014, 2017, and 2022). In a VAR ...

Mamonov, Mikhail; Pestova, Anna
Národohospodářský ústav, 2023

Social ties at work and effort choice: experimental evidence from Tanzania
Chegere, M.; Falco, P.; Menzel, Andreas
2023 - English
Many firms hire workers via social networks. Whether workers who are socially connected to their employers exert more effort on the job is an unsettled debate. We address this question through a novel experiment with small-business owners in Tanzania. Participants are paired with a worker who conducts a real-effort task, and receive a payoff that depends on the worker’s effort. Some business owners are randomly paired with workers they are socially connected with, while others are paired with strangers. With a design that is sufficiently powered to detect economically meaningful effects, we find that being socially connected to one’s employer does not affect workers’ effort.\n Keywords: firms; hiring; productivity Fulltext is available at external website.
Social ties at work and effort choice: experimental evidence from Tanzania

Many firms hire workers via social networks. Whether workers who are socially connected to their employers exert more effort on the job is an unsettled debate. We address this question through a novel ...

Chegere, M.; Falco, P.; Menzel, Andreas
Národohospodářský ústav, 2023

Human capital affects religious identity: causal evidence from Kenya
Alfonsi, L.; Bauer, Michal; Chytilová, Julie; Miguel, E.
2023 - English
We study how human capital and economic conditions causally affect the choice of religious denomination. We utilize a longitudinal dataset monitoring the religious history of more than 5,000 Kenyans over twenty years, in tandem with a randomized experiment (deworming) that has exogenously boosted education and living standards. The main finding is that the program reduces the likelihood of membership in a Pentecostal denomination up to 20 years later when respondents are in their mid-thirties, while there is a comparable increase in membership in traditional Christian denominations. The effect is concentrated and statistically significant among a sub-group of participants who benefited most from the program in terms of increased education and income. The effects are unlikely due to increased secularization, because the program does not reduce measures of religiosity. The results help explain why the global growth of the Pentecostal movement, sometimes described a “New Reformation”, is centered in low-income communities. Keywords: human capital; economic conditions; religious denomination Fulltext is available at external website.
Human capital affects religious identity: causal evidence from Kenya

We study how human capital and economic conditions causally affect the choice of religious denomination. We utilize a longitudinal dataset monitoring the religious history of more than 5,000 Kenyans ...

Alfonsi, L.; Bauer, Michal; Chytilová, Julie; Miguel, E.
Národohospodářský ústav, 2023

Analýza výdajů státního rozpočtu 2024 ve světle předkrizového roku 2019
Janský, Petr; Kolář, Daniel
2023 - Czech
Naše analýza srovnává návrh státního rozpočtu na rok 2024 schválený vládou s výsledky státního rozpočtu v roce 2019. Mezidobí tedy zahrnuje dvě zásadní události — koronavirus a agresi Ruska na Ukrajině — s řadou významných ekonomických dopadů. Procentní nárůsty klíčových výdajů státního rozpočtu poměřujeme s nárůstem cenové hladiny o 40,6 % a nominálního hrubého domácího produktu (HDP) o 33,9 % za stejné období 2019–2024. Srovnání s inflací je určující pro změnu reálné hodnoty výdajů, srovnání s nárůstem HDP ukazuje změnu podílu výdajů na HDP. Our analysis compares the 2024 state budget proposal approved by the government with 2019 state budget results. The interim period includes two major events with a number of significant economic impacts - the coronavirus and Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. We compare the percentage increases in key state budget expenditures with the 40.6% increase in prices and the 33.9% increase in nominal gross domestic product (GDP) over the same period, 2019-2024. Comparison that takes inflation into account is indicative of the change in the real value of spending, while comparison accounting for GDP growth shows the change in the shares of spending in GDP. Keywords: budget proposal; budget expenditures; Czech Republic Fulltext is available at external website.
Analýza výdajů státního rozpočtu 2024 ve světle předkrizového roku 2019

Naše analýza srovnává návrh státního rozpočtu na rok 2024 schválený vládou s výsledky státního rozpočtu v roce 2019. Mezidobí tedy zahrnuje dvě zásadní události — koronavirus a agresi Ruska na ...

Janský, Petr; Kolář, Daniel
Národohospodářský ústav, 2023

Jak zachránit státní rozpočet a napravit nedostatky v danění příjmů? Modelování dopadů změn daně z příjmu fyzických osob (zaměstnanců)
Prokop, D.; Kalíšková, Klára; Šoltés, Michal; Münich, Daniel; Ostrý, M.
2023 - Czech
Strukturální deficit státního rozpočtu je z části tvořen výpadkem daňových příjmů za cca 150 miliard Kč od roku 2020. Pro stabilizaci veřejných financí je třeba kromě reforem výdajů zacelit maximum těchto daňových ztrát. Příjmy lze ale posilovat i jinak než zdaněním zaměstnanců. Jinými typy daní lze odhadem vybrat 70 až 115 miliard Kč. Navržené změny DPFO (daň z příjmu fyzických osob) tak musí dorovnávat očekávaný výběr z dalších zdrojů a reagovat na další specifika nastavení daně z příjmu v ČR. Tím je mimo jiné malá progrese a existence řady slev, které nemohou plně čerpat lidé s nižšími příjmy. To vede k relativně vysokému zatížení nízkopříjmových zaměstnanců při omezeném výběru DPFO. The structural deficit of the state budget is partly made up of a shortfall in tax revenues of about CZK 150 billion from 2020 onwards. In order to stabilize public finances, in addition to spending reforms, the maximum of these tax losses must be recovered. However, revenue can be strengthened also in other ways than by taxing employees. An estimated CZK 70 to 115 billion can be raised through other types of taxes. The proposed changes to the personal income tax (PIT) must therefore balance the expected collection from other sources and respond to other specificities of the income tax set-up in the Czech Republic. These include, among others, the small progression and the existence of a number of discounts that cannot be fully used by people with lower incomes. This leads to a relatively high burden on low-income employees with limited collection of the PTI. Keywords: state budget; income tax; Czech Republic Fulltext is available at external website.
Jak zachránit státní rozpočet a napravit nedostatky v danění příjmů? Modelování dopadů změn daně z příjmu fyzických osob (zaměstnanců)

Strukturální deficit státního rozpočtu je z části tvořen výpadkem daňových příjmů za cca 150 miliard Kč od roku 2020. Pro stabilizaci veřejných financí je třeba kromě reforem výdajů zacelit maximum ...

Prokop, D.; Kalíšková, Klára; Šoltés, Michal; Münich, Daniel; Ostrý, M.
Národohospodářský ústav, 2023

Pracovně motivační dopady návrhů daňových změn na zaměstnance
Kalíšková, Klára; Münich, Daniel; Šoltés, Michal
2023 - Czech
V této studii analyzujeme dopady změn daní a povinných odvodů zaměstnanců, tak jak je navrhuje vládní konsolidační balíček představený v květnu 2023. Detailně se věnujeme i dopadům omezení slevy na manžela či manželku s nízkými příjmy. Zatímco existující analýzy se soustředí především na vyčíslení přerozdělovacích efektů a dopadů na daňový výnos, naše analýza sleduje i proměnu motivací k práci, tedy motivace pracovat či nepracovat a motivace pracovat více nebo méně. Ukazujeme, jak návrh změní průměrné, mezní a participační daňové sazby. Zatímco průměrná daňová sazba vypovídá o daňovém zatížení příjmů a říká, jaká část nákladů práce je odváděna ve formě daní a odvodů, další dva ukazatele souvisejí s motivací pracovat. Mezní daňová sazba popisuje motivaci pracovat více nebo méně hodin a participační daňová sazba motivaci k participaci na trhu práce (nebo naopak k odchodu z něj). Poskytujeme tedy tzv. ex ante analýzu očekávaných dopadů vládního balíčku na míru zdanění různých skupin obyvatel a jejich pracovní motivace. Ex post analýzu behaviorálních efektů tohoto balíčku, tedy jeho dopadů na participaci na trhu práce nebo počet odpracovaných hodin, přirozeně není možné provést před samotnou implementací daňových opatření. In this study, we analyse the impact of the changes to taxes and compulsory contributions for employees as proposed in the government's consolidation package unveiled in May 2023. We also look in detail at the impact of the restrictions on the low-income spouse allowance. While existing analyses focus primarily on quantifying redistributive effects and the impact on tax revenue, our analysis also looks at the transformation of incentives to work, i.e., incentives to work or not work and incentives to work more or less. We show how the proposal will change average, marginal and participation tax rates. While the average tax rate tells us about the tax burden on income and how much of the cost of labour is paid in taxes and levies, the other two indicators are related to the incentive to work. The marginal tax rate describes the incentive to work more or fewer hours, and the participation tax rate the incentive to participate in (or leave) the labour market. We thus provide an ex ante analysis of the expected effects of the government package on the tax rates of different groups of the population and their work motivation. Ex post analysis of the behavioural effects of this package, i.e. its impact on labour market participation or the number of hours worked, is naturally not possible before the actual implementation of the tax measures. Keywords: tax system; TAXBEN model; income tax Fulltext is available at external website.
Pracovně motivační dopady návrhů daňových změn na zaměstnance

V této studii analyzujeme dopady změn daní a povinných odvodů zaměstnanců, tak jak je navrhuje vládní konsolidační balíček představený v květnu 2023. Detailně se věnujeme i dopadům omezení slevy na ...

Kalíšková, Klára; Münich, Daniel; Šoltés, Michal
Národohospodářský ústav, 2023

Extrapolative income expectations and retirement savings
Cota, Marta
2023 - English
Why do employees’ retirement contributions gradually increase throughout their careers? This paper uses a structural life-cycle model based on household expectations data to explain workers’ retirement contribution decisions. The Michigan Survey of Consumers data shows that young households extrapolate from their recent income realizations and overstate the persistence and volatility of their future income. The structural life-cycle model with extrapolative expectations quantifies the difference in retirement contribution rates compared to rational expectations. Contrary to rational workers, extrapolative workers’ contributions match the data on retirement contributions over the life cycle. Consequently, mandating automatic enrollment yields negligible effects on retirement savings. Keywords: extrapolative expectations; forecast errors; illiquid savings Fulltext is available at external website.
Extrapolative income expectations and retirement savings

Why do employees’ retirement contributions gradually increase throughout their careers? This paper uses a structural life-cycle model based on household expectations data to explain workers’ ...

Cota, Marta
Národohospodářský ústav, 2023

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