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Revealing private information in a patent race
Kocourek, Pavel
2021 - English
In this paper I investigate the role of private information in a patent race. Since firms often do their research in secrecy, the common assumption in patent race literature that firms know each other’s position in the race is questionable. I analyze how the dynamics of the game changes when a firm’s progress is its private information, and I address the question whether revealing it might be to a firm’s advantage. I find that a firm has an incentive to reveal its breakthrough only if its rival has not done so, and only if the research is costly.
Keywords:
patent race; R&D investment; optimal effort
Fulltext is available at external website.
Revealing private information in a patent race
In this paper I investigate the role of private information in a patent race. Since firms often do their research in secrecy, the common assumption in patent race literature that firms know each ...
Forecasting realized volatility using machine learning and mixed-frequency data (the case of the Russian stock market)
Pyrlik, Vladimir; Elizarov, P.; Leonova, A.
2021 - English
We assess the performance of selected machine learning algorithms (lasso, random forest, gradient boosting, and long short-term memory) in forecasting the daily realized volatility of returns of selected top stocks in the Russian stock market in comparison with a heterogeneous autoregressive realized volatility benchmark in 2018-2020. We seek to improve the predictive power of the models by including various economic indicators that carry information about future volatility. We find that lasso delivers a good combination of easy implementation and forecast precision. The other algorithms require fine-tuning and frequent re-training, otherwise they are likely to fail to outperform the benchmark often enough. Only the basic lagged log-RV values are significant explanatory variables in terms of the benchmark in-sample quality. Many economic indicators of mixed frequencies improve the predictive power of lasso though, including calendar and overnight effects, financial spillovers from local and global markets, and various macroeconomics indicators.
Keywords:
heterogeneous autoregressive model; machine learning; lasso
Fulltext is available at external website.
Forecasting realized volatility using machine learning and mixed-frequency data (the case of the Russian stock market)
We assess the performance of selected machine learning algorithms (lasso, random forest, gradient boosting, and long short-term memory) in forecasting the daily realized volatility of returns of ...
Forced migration, staying minorities, and new societies: evidence from post-war Czechoslovakia
Grossmann, Jakub; Jurajda, Štěpán; Roesel, F.
2021 - English
Forced migration traumatizes millions displaced from their homes, but little is known about the few who manage to stay and become a minority in a new society. We study the case of German stayers in Sudetenland, a region from which Czechoslovakia expelled ethnic Germans after World War Two. The unexpected presence of the US Army in parts of 1945 Czechoslovakia resulted in more anti-fascist Germans avoiding displacement compared to regions liberated by the Red Army. We study the long-run impacts of this local variation in the presence of left-leaning stayers and find that Communist party support and local party cell frequencies, as well as far-left values and social policies are more pronounced today where anti-fascist Germans stayed in larger numbers. Our findings also suggest that political identity supplanted German ethnic identity among anti-fascist stayers. The German staying minority shaped the political identity of newly formed local societies after ethnic cleansing by providing the ‘small seed’ of political development.
Keywords:
forced migration; displacement; ethnic cleansing
Fulltext is available at external website.
Forced migration, staying minorities, and new societies: evidence from post-war Czechoslovakia
Forced migration traumatizes millions displaced from their homes, but little is known about the few who manage to stay and become a minority in a new society. We study the case of German stayers in ...
Income tax evasion: tax elasticity, welfare, and revenue
Gillman, Max
2020 - English
This paper provides a general equilibrium model of income tax evasion. As functions of the share of income reported, the paper contributes an analytic derivation of the tax elasticity of taxable income, the welfare cost of the tax, and government revenue as a percent of output. It shows how an increase in the tax rate causes the tax elasticity and welfare cost to increase in magnitude by more than with zero evasion. Keeping constant the ratio of income tax revenue to output, as shown to be consistent with certain US evidence, a rising productivity of the goods sector induces less evasion and thereby allows tax rate reduction. The paper derives conditions for a stable share of income tax revenue in output with dependence upon the tax elasticity of reporting income. Examples are provided with less and more productive economies in terms of the tax elasticity of reported income, the welfare cost of taxation and the tax revenue as a percent of output, with sensitivity analysis with respect to leisure preference and goods productivity. Discussion focuses on how the tax evasion analysis may help explain such Öscal tax policy as the postwar US income tax rate reductions with discussion of tax acts and government Öscal multipliers. Fiscal policy with tax evasion included shows how tax rate reduction induces less tax evasion, a lower welfare cost of taxation, and makes for a stable income tax share of output.
Keywords:
optimal evasion; tax law; welfare
Fulltext is available at external website.
Income tax evasion: tax elasticity, welfare, and revenue
This paper provides a general equilibrium model of income tax evasion. As functions of the share of income reported, the paper contributes an analytic derivation of the tax elasticity of taxable ...
Sorting of candidates: evidence from 20,000 electoral ballots
Svitáková, Klára; Šoltés, Michal
2020 - English
Using over 20,000 electoral ballots from proportional representation elections, we document that political parties systematically sort candidates on the ballots according to their valence and intra party value. Valence, measured by education level, captures the public value of the candidates, while intra party value, measured by political donations and membership, represents the value of the candidate to the party. The patterns we observe are consistent with market mechanisms between candidates and party leaders where the party leaders benefit from the valence and intra party value of candidates and offer ballot positions (i.e. the probability of winning a seat) in exchange. We show that candidates with high valence and those who possess more intra party value are placed in higher level positions, despite the fact that candidates with more intra party value tend to receive relatively fewer votes than their counterparts with the same characteristics in the same position on the ballot. We also show that as a party expects to hold more council seats and thus has more bargaining power over candidates, the share of their candidates with higher intra party value increases. Overall, we provide strong evidence that political parties skew political representation based on a quid pro quo relationship with the candidates.
Keywords:
ballots; election; party
Fulltext is available at external website.
Sorting of candidates: evidence from 20,000 electoral ballots
Using over 20,000 electoral ballots from proportional representation elections, we document that political parties systematically sort candidates on the ballots according to their valence and intra ...
Firm leverage and wealth inequality
Bakota, Ivo
2020 - English
This paper studies the effects of a change in firm leverage on wealth inequality and macroeconomic aggregates. The question is studied in a general equilibrium model with a continuum of heterogeneous agents, life-cycle, incomplete markets, and idiosyncratic and aggregate risk. The analysis focuses on the particular change in firm leverage that occurred in the U.S. during the 1980s, when firm leverage increased significantly, and subsequently has been dropping since the early 1990s. In the benchmark model, an increase in firm leverage of the size that occurred during the 1980s increases capital accumulation by 5.38%, decreases wealth inequality by 1.07 Gini points and decreases government revenues by 0.11% of output. An increase in firm leverage increases average after-tax returns on savings, as firm debt has beneficial tax treatment. This increases the saving rates of all households, and disproportionately increases the saving rates of relatively poorer households. Consequently, the model implies that the increase in firm leverage did not contribute to rising inequality in the U.S. in the 1980s, but rather the opposite, that the reduction in leverage from the early 1990s to 2008 has contributed to rising wealth inequality. Furthermore, I show that if the model abstracts from beneficial tax treatment of corporate debt, the change in leverage has only minor effects on macro aggregates and inequality, despite having significant implications for asset prices. This is consistent with the previous result in the literature showing that the Modigliani-Miller theorem approximately holds in the heterogeneous agents model with imperfect markets.
Keywords:
portfolio choice; heterogeneous agents; life-cycle
Fulltext is available at external website.
Firm leverage and wealth inequality
This paper studies the effects of a change in firm leverage on wealth inequality and macroeconomic aggregates. The question is studied in a general equilibrium model with a continuum of heterogeneous ...
Redistributive capital taxation revisited
Kina, Ö.; Slavík, Ctirad; Yazici, H.
2020 - English
This paper shows that capital-skill complementarity provides a quantitatively significant rationale to tax capital for redistributive governments. The optimal capital income tax rate is 60%, which is significantly higher than the optimal rate of 48% in an identically calibrated model without capital-skill complementarity. The skill premium falls from 1.9 to 1.67 along the transition following the optimal reform in the capital-skill complementarity model, implying substantial indirect redistribution from skilled to unskilled workers. These results show that a government that cares about redistribution should take into account capital-skill complementarity in production when setting the tax rate on capital income.
Keywords:
capital taxation; capital-skill complementarity; inequality
Fulltext is available at external website.
Redistributive capital taxation revisited
This paper shows that capital-skill complementarity provides a quantitatively significant rationale to tax capital for redistributive governments. The optimal capital income tax rate is 60%, which is ...
Tax reforms and inter-temporal shifting of corporate income: evidence from tax records in Slovakia
Bukovina, J.; Lichard, Tomáš; Palguta, J.; Žúdel, B.
2020 - English
We use administrative tax return data for all corporations in Slovakia to demonstrate how policies facilitating inter-temporal income shifting result in elevated corporate income tax (CIT) elasticity estimates. Our strategy exploits kinks in the statutory tax schedules and policy reforms of tax carry-forwards. If inter-temporal shifting is neglected, our bunching estimates imply CIT elasticity of up to 0.65, suggesting a highly sensitive tax base with respect to the marginal tax rate. However, we show that CIT elasticity drops at least 21.2-49.1% when we remove the inter-temporal shifting component. This correction significantly reduces the estimated marginal excess burden of corporate taxation.
Keywords:
corporate income tax; elasticity; inter-temporal profit shifting
Fulltext is available at external website.
Tax reforms and inter-temporal shifting of corporate income: evidence from tax records in Slovakia
We use administrative tax return data for all corporations in Slovakia to demonstrate how policies facilitating inter-temporal income shifting result in elevated corporate income tax (CIT) elasticity ...
Corporate profitability and the global persistence of corruption
Ferris, S. P.; Hanousek, Jan; Trešl, Jiří
2020 - English
We examine the persistence of corporate corruption for a sample of privately-held firms from 12 Central and Eastern European countries over the period 2001 to 2015. Creating a proxy for corporate corruption based on a firm’s internal inefficiency, we find that corruption enhances a firm’s profitability. A channel analysis further reveals that inflating staff costs is the most common approach by which firms divert funds to finance corruption. We conclude that corruption persists because of its ability to improve a firm’s return on assets, which we refer to as the Corporate Advantage Hypothesis.
Keywords:
corruption; inefficiency; performance
Fulltext is available at external website.
Corporate profitability and the global persistence of corruption
We examine the persistence of corporate corruption for a sample of privately-held firms from 12 Central and Eastern European countries over the period 2001 to 2015. Creating a proxy for corporate ...
M&A activity and the capital structure of target firms
Flannery, M. J.; Hanousek, Jan; Shamshur, Anastasiya; Trešl, Jiří
2020 - English
Using a large sample of European acquisitions, we find that acquired firms substantially close the gap between their actual and optimal leverage ratios. The bulk of this adjustment occurs quite rapidly – within a year of the acquisition. The typical over-levered firm adjusts its debtto-assets ratio from 34.4% in the year before acquisition to 20% in the year after. (The adjustment is smaller, but still quite rapid, for targets that had been under-leveraged.) These adjustments occur primarily through debt issuances or retirements. We also investigate whether target firms’ pre-merger leverage contributes to the probability of them being acquired. We find that firms further away from their optimal leverage are more likely to be acquired: for an average firm, an increase in the absolute leverage deviation from 1% to 10% of total assets increases the probability of being acquired by 4.1% to 5.6% (The larger effect applies to overleveraged firms.) Overall, our results provide support for the trade-off theory of capital structure and suggest that financial synergies have a significant role in the typical European acquisition decision.
Keywords:
M&A; target capital structure; leverage deficit
Fulltext is available at external website.
M&A activity and the capital structure of target firms
Using a large sample of European acquisitions, we find that acquired firms substantially close the gap between their actual and optimal leverage ratios. The bulk of this adjustment occurs quite ...
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