Analysis of the 2024 state budget revenue in light of the 2019 pre-crisis year
Janský, Petr; Kolář, Daniel
2024 - Czech This analysis compares planned state budget revenues in 2024 with the state budget outcomes of 2019. It charts a period in which the Czech economy and public budgets have been heavily impacted by the consequences of several major crises (coronavirus, the invasion of Ukraine and the war, an energy crisis, and an inflationary wave) as well as by significant parametric changes in the Czech tax system. 2019 can be considered the last pre-crisis year and 2024 the first post-crisis year, so they correspond to 'normal times' more closely than the years in between. This analysis builds on a previous analysis of the state budget expenditure development between 2019 and 2024 and includes a brief synthesis of findings on revenues and expenditures. Tato analýza srovnává plánované příjmy státního rozpočtu na rok 2024 s výsledky státního rozpočtu v roce 2019. Mapuje období, během něhož na českou ekonomiku a veřejné rozpočty silně dopadly jak důsledky několika zásadních krizí (koronavirus, napadení Ukrajiny a válka, energetická krize a inflační vlna), tak výrazné parametrické změny českého daňového systému. Rok 2019 lze považovat za poslední předkrizový a rok 2024 za první pokrizový, takže odpovídají ‘normálním časům‘ lépe než roky mezi nimi. Tato analýza svým pojetím navazuje na předchozí analýzu vývoje výdajů státního rozpočtu mezi roky 2019 a 2024 a obsahuje i stručnou syntézu zjištění o vývoji příjmů a výdajů. Keywords: budget proposal; budget revenues; Czech Republic Fulltext is available at external website. Analysis of the 2024 state budget revenue in light of the 2019 pre-crisis year

This analysis compares planned state budget revenues in 2024 with the state budget outcomes of 2019. It charts a period in which the Czech economy and public budgets have been heavily impacted by the ...

Janský, Petr; Kolář, Daniel
Národohospodářský ústav, 2024

The U.S. low-wage structure: a McWage comparison
Ashenfelter, O.; Jurajda, Štěpán
2024 - English Thanks to standardized work protocol and technology of McDonald’s restaurants, the hourly wage of McDonald’s Basic Crew enables wage comparisons under near-identical skill inputs and hedonic job conditions. McWages capture labor costs in entry-level jobs, while the Big Macs (earned) Per Hour (BMPH) index measures corresponding purchasing power of wages. We document large and growing geographical wage differences in standardized jobs using data covering most U.S. counties during 2016-2023. Before the Covid-19 pandemic, there was no BMPH growth where minimum wages stayed constant, but the pandemic wage increase, which diminished the importance of minimum wages, was stronger in these areas. Keywords: wage comparisons; labor costs; purchasing power Fulltext is available at external website. The U.S. low-wage structure: a McWage comparison

Thanks to standardized work protocol and technology of McDonald’s restaurants, the hourly wage of McDonald’s Basic Crew enables wage comparisons under near-identical skill inputs and hedonic job ...

Ashenfelter, O.; Jurajda, Štěpán
Národohospodářský ústav, 2024

Podnikání jako mužský svět? Využívání kompetencí v podnikání sebezaměstnaných žen a mikropodnikatelek v ČR
Maříková, Hana; Švarcová, Markéta; Křížková, Alena
2024 - Czech Fulltext is available at external website. Podnikání jako mužský svět? Využívání kompetencí v podnikání sebezaměstnaných žen a mikropodnikatelek v ČR

Maříková, Hana; Švarcová, Markéta; Křížková, Alena
Sociologický ústav, 2024

The American origin of the French Revolution
Ottinger, Sebastian; Rosenberger, L.
2024 - English We show that the French combatants’ exposure to the United States increased support for the French Revolution a decade later. French regions from which more American combatants originated had more revolts against feudal institutions, revolutionary societies, volunteers for the revolutionary army, and emigrants from the Old Regime’s elite. To establish causality, we exploit two historical coincidences: i) originally, a French army of seven and a half thousand was ready to sail, but one-third did not, ii) among those deployed, only some regiments were stationed in New England. Only combatants exposed to New England affected the French Revolution after their return. Keywords: institutional change; French Revolution; American War of Independence Fulltext is available at external website. The American origin of the French Revolution

We show that the French combatants’ exposure to the United States increased support for the French Revolution a decade later. French regions from which more American combatants originated had more ...

Ottinger, Sebastian; Rosenberger, L.
Národohospodářský ústav, 2024

Survey expectations, adaptive learning and inflation dynamics
Rychalovska, Y.; Slobodyan, Sergey; Wouters, R.
2024 - English The use of survey information on inflation expectations as an observable in a DSGE model can substantially refine identification of the shocks that drive inflation. Optimal integration of the survey information improves the model forecast for inflation and for other macroeconomic variables. Models with expectations based on an Adaptive Learning setup can exploit survey information more efficiently than their Rational Expectations counterparts. The resulting time-variation in the perceived inflation target, in inflation persistence, and in the sensitivity of inflation to various shocks provide a rich and consistent description of the joint dynamics of realized and expected inflation. Our framework produces a reasonable interpretation of the post-Covid inflation dynamics. Our learning model successfully identifies the more persistent nature of the recent inflation surge. Keywords: inflation; expectations; survey data Fulltext is available at external website. Survey expectations, adaptive learning and inflation dynamics

The use of survey information on inflation expectations as an observable in a DSGE model can substantially refine identification of the shocks that drive inflation. Optimal integration of the survey ...

Rychalovska, Y.; Slobodyan, Sergey; Wouters, R.
Národohospodářský ústav, 2024

Financial management and financial satisfaction in Czech households
Fialová, Kamila; Mysíková, Martina
2024 - Czech Household financial management is a complex process in which a variety of factors play a role in influencing household financial health. These factors are primarily the level of household income and expenditure, including the way in which housing is provided, household size and structure, education and financial literacy. An important aspect of household management is the balance of the budget, which is based on the distribution of financial resources between recurrent expenditure covering basic needs, more luxurious and irregular expenditure, and possibly also savings. Budget balance affects the financial stability of a household and its future prospects. In the case of households with more members, the distribution of income within the household can be another important aspect, which can affect not only the financial well-being of individual members but also have wider implications. \nInternationally comparable Eurostat data for 2018 show that Czechs have an average level of financial satisfaction among European nations. On a scale of 0 to 10, Czechs on average rated their financial satisfaction as 6.7, while the European average was 6.6. Czech men (6.8) were slightly more satisfied than women (6.6). Since 2013, the data showed a significant increase in the financial satisfaction of Czech households from an average rating of 6.0. \nData from the 2023 IPSOS sample survey rate the financial satisfaction of Czechs as 5.5 on average (on the same scale from 0 to 10), with men again more satisfied (5.7) than women (5.3). Roughly one-third of respondents are very or rather dissatisfied with their financial situation (0-4), while more than half of respondents are rather or very satisfied with their financial situation (6-10).\nThe results of the regression analysis show that demographic characteristics such as gender, age, education or presence of children do not affect financial satisfaction. In general, people living with a spouse/partner and single individuals are more satisfied with their financial situation than those divorced and widowed. \nThe key factors influencing financial satisfaction are the amount of household income and how they manage it, as well as the accumulation of short-term or long-term financial reserves. Paying a mortgage or rent does not significantly reduce financial satisfaction. Repaying loans significantly reduces financial satisfaction for women living as a couple.\n Finanční hospodaření domácností je komplexní proces, ve kterém hrají roli různorodé faktory ovlivňující finanční zdraví domácnosti. Těmito faktory jsou v první řadě výše příjmu a výdajů domácností včetně způsobu zajištění bydlení, velikost a struktura domácností, vzdělání či finanční gramotnost. Důležitým aspektem hospodaření je vyrovnanost rozpočtu, která vychází z rozdělení finančních zdrojů mezi pravidelné výdaje pokrývající základní potřeby, luxusnější a nepravidelné výdaje a případně také úspory. Vyrovnanost rozpočtu ovlivňuje finanční stabilitu domácnosti a její vyhlídky do budoucna. V případě vícečlenných domácností může být dalším důležitým aspektem rozdělení příjmů v rámci domácnosti, které může ovlivnit nejen finanční blahobyt jednotlivých členů, ale může mít i širší dopady. \nMezinárodně srovnatelná data Eurostatu za rok 2018 ukazují, že Češi mezi evropskými národy patří k těm průměrně spokojeným se svou finanční situací. Češi na škále od 0 do 10 průměrně hodnotili svoji finanční spokojenost známkou 6,7, zatímco evropský průměr byl 6,6. Čeští muži (6,8) byli o něco spokojenější než ženy (6,6). Od roku 2013 byl v datech patrný výrazný růst finanční spokojenosti českých domácností z průměrného hodnocení 6,0. \nData z výběrového šetření IPSOS v roce 2023 hodnotí finanční spokojenost Čechů v průměru známkou 5,5 (na stejné škále od 0 do 10), přičemž muži jsou opět více spokojeni (5,7) než ženy (5,3). Zhruba třetina respondentů je se svou finanční situací velmi či spíše nespokojena (0–4), více než polovina respondentů je se svou finanční situací naopak spíše či velmi spokojena (6–10).\nVýsledky regresní analýzy ukazují, že demografické charakteristiky jako pohlaví, věk, vzdělání či přítomnost dětí nemají na finanční spokojenost vliv. Obecně jsou se svou finanční situací spokojenější lidé žijící s partnerem/partnerkou a svobodní než rozvedení a ovdovělí. \nStěžejními faktory ovlivňujícími finanční spokojenost Čechů je výše příjmů domácnosti a to jak s nimi vychází, tedy „plusový“ rozpočet, stejně jako vytváření krátkodobé či dlouhodobé finanční rezervy. Splácení hypotéky či placení nájmu finanční spokojenost významně nesnižuje. Splácení úvěrů významně snižuje finanční spokojenost žen žijících v páru. \n Keywords: financial resilience; financial satisfaction; household finance Fulltext is available at external website. Financial management and financial satisfaction in Czech households

Household financial management is a complex process in which a variety of factors play a role in influencing household financial health. These factors are primarily the level of household income and ...

Fialová, Kamila; Mysíková, Martina
Sociologický ústav, 2024

Czech Education Panel Survey – Report from the First Wave of Data Collection
Kudrnáč, Aleš; Spitzerová, Markéta; Hanzlová, Radka; Petrúšek, Ivan; Aslan, Katarína; Bocskor, Ákos
2024 - Czech This research report presents data from the Czech Education Panel Survey (CZEPS) conducted in autumn 2023. The focus is on how first-year male and female students perceive themselves, their academic aspirations, their relationship to school and their level of critical thinking they come to each type of secondary school. Based on responses from more than 22 thousands students from 249 schools participating in the first wave, in this report we focused on outcomes in the areas of wellbeing, choice of secondary school, sense of belonging to school, critical thinking test results and the situation of ethnic minorities. Výzkumná zpráva z Českého panelového šetření středoškoláků (CZEPS) představuje základní informace o tom, jak žáci a žákyně prvního ročníku vnímají sami sebe, jaké mají studijní aspirace, vztah ke škole a s jakou úrovní kritického myšlení přichází na jednotlivé typy středních škol. Na základě odpovědí od více jak 22 tisíc žáků a žákyň z 249 škol účastnících se první vlny Českého panelového šetření středoškoláků na podzim 2023 jsme se v této výzkumné zprávě zaměřili na výsledky v oblasti wellbeingu, volby střední školy, pocitu sounáležitosti se školou, výsledků testu kritického myšlení a situace etnických menšin. Keywords: panel survey; education; adolescents Fulltext is available at external website. Czech Education Panel Survey – Report from the First Wave of Data Collection

This research report presents data from the Czech Education Panel Survey (CZEPS) conducted in autumn 2023. The focus is on how first-year male and female students perceive themselves, their academic ...

Kudrnáč, Aleš; Spitzerová, Markéta; Hanzlová, Radka; Petrúšek, Ivan; Aslan, Katarína; Bocskor, Ákos
Sociologický ústav, 2024

Forced migration and crime: evidence from the 2014 immigration wave to Russia
Shcherbov, Arsenii
2024 - English Recent years have spurred significant migration movements, underscoring the need to understand their impacts. This study explores a widely-debated correlation between crime and migration. Specifically, I investigate the 2014 migration wave, studying the response of Russian crime rates to the influx of immigrants from Ukraine. I approximate local crime rates using court data on sentencing decisions and describe relevant migration flows with internet search activity. The application of the difference-in-differences method reveals positive effects for property crime sentencing and the heterogeneous response of violent crime sentencing. The findings of this study are policy-relevant and could prove beneficial in understanding and mitigating the effects of future migration waves. Keywords: crime; migration; Russia Fulltext is available at external website. Forced migration and crime: evidence from the 2014 immigration wave to Russia

Recent years have spurred significant migration movements, underscoring the need to understand their impacts. This study explores a widely-debated correlation between crime and migration. ...

Shcherbov, Arsenii
Národohospodářský ústav, 2024

Winning culture, winning future: the effects of early-career success on long-run performance
Trestcov, Ivan; Rakhmetova, Aizhamal
2024 - English This paper investigates the influence of early-career environments on long-run performance. Utilizing quasi-randomness of the NBA Draft Lottery system, we isolate the impacts of initial team success, coaching experience, and the presence of a star player during a basketball player’s debut season. Our findings underscore the significant positive effects of early team wins and experienced coaches on future player performance. Surprisingly, playing alongside a star player in the first year does not show a strong influence. This study offers insights that extend beyond sports, emphasizing the lasting effects of early professional experience and mentorship on career trajectories. Keywords: early-career success; NBA draft lottery; long-term performance Fulltext is available at external website. Winning culture, winning future: the effects of early-career success on long-run performance

This paper investigates the influence of early-career environments on long-run performance. Utilizing quasi-randomness of the NBA Draft Lottery system, we isolate the impacts of initial team success, ...

Trestcov, Ivan; Rakhmetova, Aizhamal
Národohospodářský ústav, 2024

The heterogeneous consequences of reduced labor costs on firm productivity
Del Prato, F.; Zacchia, Paolo
2024 - English We document how a reduction in labor costs led to heterogeneous effects on the total factor productivity (TFP) of manufacturing firms. Leveraging an Italian labor legislation reform and unique institutional features of the local collective bargaining system, we show that such effects vary along the TFP distribution. Relative to the counterfactual, TFP markedly declines on the left tail, which we explain via selection mechanisms, on the right, TFP mildly increases as firms are able to expand and reallocate their workforce. To guide the evaluation of welfare implications, we develop a general equilibrium model featuring firm selection and frictions in input markets. Keywords: labor costs; productivity; collective bargaining Fulltext is available at external website. The heterogeneous consequences of reduced labor costs on firm productivity

We document how a reduction in labor costs led to heterogeneous effects on the total factor productivity (TFP) of manufacturing firms. Leveraging an Italian labor legislation reform and unique ...

Del Prato, F.; Zacchia, Paolo
Národohospodářský ústav, 2024