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Recursive mixture estimation with univariate multimodal Poisson variable
Uglickich, Evženie; Nagy, Ivan
2022 - English
Analysis of count variables described by the Poisson distribution is required in many application fields. Examples of the count variables observed per a time unit can be, e.g., number of customers, passengers, road accidents, Internet traffic packet arrivals, bankruptcies, virus attacks, etc. If the behavior of such a variable exhibits a multimodal character, the problem of clustering and classification of incoming count data arises. This issue can touch, for instance, detecting clusters of the different behavior of drivers in traffic flow analysis as well as cyclists or pedestrians. This work focuses on the model-based clustering of Poisson-distributed count data with the help of the recursive Bayesian estimation of the mixture of Poisson components. The aim of the work is to explain the methodology in details with an illustrative simple example, so that the work is limited to the univariate case and static pointer.
Keywords:
recursive mixture estimation; mixture of Poisson distributions; clustering and classification
Fulltext is available at external website.
Recursive mixture estimation with univariate multimodal Poisson variable
Analysis of count variables described by the Poisson distribution is required in many application fields. Examples of the count variables observed per a time unit can be, e.g., number of customers, ...
Inattentive price discovery in ETFs
Kosar, Mariia; Mikhalishchev, Sergei
2022 - English
This paper studies the information choice of exchange-traded funds (ETF) investors, and its impact on the price efficiency of underlying stocks. First, we show that the learning of stock-specific information can occur at the ETF level. Our results suggest that ETF investors respond endogenously to changes in the fundamental value of underlying stocks, in line with the rational inattention theory. Second, we provide evidence that ETFs facilitate propagation of idiosyncratic shocks across its constituents.
Keywords:
exchange-traded fund; ETF; price efficiency
Fulltext is available at external website.
Inattentive price discovery in ETFs
This paper studies the information choice of exchange-traded funds (ETF) investors, and its impact on the price efficiency of underlying stocks. First, we show that the learning of stock-specific ...
Optimally biased expertise
Ilinov, Pavel; Matveenko, A.; Senkov, Maxim; Starkov, E.
2022 - English
This paper shows that the principal can strictly benefit from delegating a decision to an agent whose opinion differs from that of the principal. We consider a “delegated expertise” problem in which the agent has an advantage in information acquisition relative to the principal, as opposed to having preexisting private information. When the principal is ex ante predisposed towards some action, it is optimal for her to hire an agent who is predisposed towards the same action, but to a smaller extent, since such an agent would acquire more information, which outweighs the bias stemming from misalignment. We show that belief misalignment between an agent and a principal is a viable instrument in delegation, performing on par with contracting and communication in a class of problems.
Keywords:
delegation; rational inattention; heterogeneous beliefs
Fulltext is available at external website.
Optimally biased expertise
This paper shows that the principal can strictly benefit from delegating a decision to an agent whose opinion differs from that of the principal. We consider a “delegated expertise” problem in which ...
Consequences of inconvenient information: evidence from sentencing disparities
Šoltés, Michal
2022 - English
Inconvenient information about the performance of public institutions may undermine public trust. In an experiment, I test how information about sentencing disparities among judges in the Czech Republic affects respondents’ perception of the judicial system. I find no effect on respondents’ declared institutional trust and willingness to rely on the formal judicial system. Instead, the information marginally increased respondents’ policy involvement: They became more likely to: (i) sign a petition that invites politicians to address the underlying issue, and (ii) consider fairness of the judicial system a more important policy issue. The increased interest in the petition was driven by mothers, who are arguably more sensitive to the particular treatment information in the presented case of a failure to pay alimony.
Keywords:
information disclosure; institutional trust; performance of public institutions
Fulltext is available at external website.
Consequences of inconvenient information: evidence from sentencing disparities
Inconvenient information about the performance of public institutions may undermine public trust. In an experiment, I test how information about sentencing disparities among judges in the Czech ...
Compliance behavior under surveillance: introduction of the video assistant referee to European football
Trestcov, Ivan
2022 - English
This paper analyzes the effect of introducing the Video Assistant Referee (VAR) to European football. First, the setting allows for decomposition of the deterrence and monitoring effects in Becker’s (1968) model of crime. Second, I estimate the deterrence effect’s spillover outside the surveillance environment. Third, I find evidence of a much under-studied learning-by-punishment effect. This paper applies the difference-in-difference strategy to show that the introduction of VAR causes a significant decrease in the number of fouls in two German football leagues. VAR had an immediate impact on severe fouls, while the effect on penalty fouls is apparent after a 12 week adjustment period. Punishment intensifies the deterrence effect as punished players commit even fewer fouls than unpunished players. Moreover, the deterrence effect persists outside of the surveillance environment, i.e., there is a spillover effect on international competitions. I show that players from countries with VAR commit fewer fouls in international competitions than other players.
Keywords:
Becker model; video assistant referee; deterrence
Fulltext is available at external website.
Compliance behavior under surveillance: introduction of the video assistant referee to European football
This paper analyzes the effect of introducing the Video Assistant Referee (VAR) to European football. First, the setting allows for decomposition of the deterrence and monitoring effects in Becker’s ...
Macroeconomic Responses of Emerging Market Economies to Oil Price Shocks: Analysis by Region and Resource Profile
Togonidze, S.; Kočenda, Evžen
2022 - English
This study employs a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to analyse how oil price shocks affect macroeconomic fundamentals in emerging economies. Findings from existing literature remain inconclusive how macroeconomic variables fare towards shocks, especially in emerging economies. The objective of our study is to uncover if analysis by region (Latin America and the Caribbean, East Asia and the Pacific, Europe, and Central Asia) and resource intensity of economies (oil exporters, oil importers, minerals exporters, and less resource intensive). Our unique approach forms part of our contribution to the literature. We find that Latin America and the Caribbean are least affected by oil price shocks, while in East Asia and the Pacific the response of inflation and interest rate to oil price shocks is positive, and output growth is negative. Our analysis by resource endowment fails to show oil price shocks’ ability to explain huge variations in macroeconomic variables in oil importing economies. Further sensitivity analysis using US interest rates as an alternative source of external shocks to emerging economies establishes a significant response of interest rate responses to US interest rate in Europe and Central Asia, and in inflation in Latin America and the Caribbean. We also find that regardless of resource endowment, the response of output growth and capital to a positive US interest rate shock is negative and significant in EMs. Our results are persuasive that resource intensity and regional factors impact the responsiveness of emerging economies to oil price shocks, thus laying a basis for policy debate.\n
Keywords:
Emerging market economies; Oil shocks; GDP; Markov-switching; Exchange rate; Oil exporters; Metal exporters
Fulltext is available at external website.
Macroeconomic Responses of Emerging Market Economies to Oil Price Shocks: Analysis by Region and Resource Profile
This study employs a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to analyse how oil price shocks affect macroeconomic fundamentals in emerging economies. Findings from existing literature remain inconclusive ...
Yield Curve Dynamics and Fiscal Policy Shocks
Kučera, A.; Kočenda, Evžen; Maršál, Aleš
2022 - English
We show that government spending does play a role in shaping the yield curve which has important consequences for the cost of private and government financing. We combine government spending shock identification strategies from the fiscal macro literature with recent advancements in no-arbitrage affine term structure modeling, where we account for time-varying macroeconomic trends in inflation and the equilibrium real interest rate. We stress in our empirical macro-finance framework the importance of timing in the response of yields to government spending. We find that the yield curve responds positively but mildly to a surprise in government spending shocks where the rise in risk-neutral yields is compensated by a drop in nominal term premia. The news shock in expectations about future expenditures decreases yields across all maturities. Complementarily, we also analyze the effect of fiscal policy uncertainty where higher fiscal uncertainty lowers yields.
Keywords:
Government Expenditures; Fiscal policy; U.S. Treasury Yield Curve; Affine Term Structure Model
Fulltext is available at external website.
Yield Curve Dynamics and Fiscal Policy Shocks
We show that government spending does play a role in shaping the yield curve which has important consequences for the cost of private and government financing. We combine government spending shock ...
ECB monetary policy and commodity prices
Aliyev, S.; Kočenda, Evžen
2022 - English
We assess the impact of ECB monetary policy on global aggregate and sectoral commodity prices over 2001–2019. We employ a SVAR model and separately assess periods before and after the global financial crisis. Our key results indicate that contractionary monetary policy shocks have positive effects on commodity prices during both conventional and unconventional monetary policy periods, indicating the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy tools. The largest impact is documented on fuel and food commodities. Our results also suggest that the effect of ECB monetary policy on commodity prices transmits through the exchange rate channel, which influences European market demand.
Keywords:
European Central Bank; commodity prices; short-term interest rates; M2 stock; monetary aggregate; unconventional monetary policy; Structural Vector Autoregressive model; exchange rates
Fulltext is available at external website.
ECB monetary policy and commodity prices
We assess the impact of ECB monetary policy on global aggregate and sectoral commodity prices over 2001–2019. We employ a SVAR model and separately assess periods before and after the global financial ...
Financial Impact of Trust and Institutional Quality around the World
Kapounek, S.; Kočenda, Evžen; Kouba, L.
2022 - English
We investigate the financial impact of social trust, institutional quality, and regulations. As a testing ground we employ a unique, large, and hand-crafted dataset of more than 850 000 lending-based crowdfunding projects from 155 platforms across 55 countries during 2005–2018. We show that the impact of social trust is positive but economically less pronounced than that of institutional trust proxied by legal and property rights protection and regulation. Moreover, the financial impact of social trust is greater at the national level, while impact of institutional quality dominates at the international level. Nevertheless, the financial impact of trust and institutional quality around the world is positive, which is an encouraging implication under increasing anonymity and internationalization of financial environment.
Keywords:
social capital; social trust; institutional trust; uncertainty; crowdfunding; financial markets
Fulltext is available at external website.
Financial Impact of Trust and Institutional Quality around the World
We investigate the financial impact of social trust, institutional quality, and regulations. As a testing ground we employ a unique, large, and hand-crafted dataset of more than 850 000 lending-based ...
Large Perimeter Objects Surrounded by a 1.5D Terrain
Keikha, Vahideh
2022 - English
Given is a 1.5D terrain T , i.e., an x-monotone polygonal chain in R2. Our objective is to approximate the largest area or perimeter convex polygon with at most k vertices inside T . For a constant k > 0, we design an FPTAS that efficiently approximates such polygons within a factor (1 − ǫ). For the special case of the´largest-perimeter contained triangle in T , we design an O(n log n) time exact algorithm that matches the same result for the area measure.
Available in digital repository of the ASCR
Large Perimeter Objects Surrounded by a 1.5D Terrain
Given is a 1.5D terrain T , i.e., an x-monotone polygonal chain in R2. Our objective is to approximate the largest area or perimeter convex polygon with at most k vertices inside T . For a constant k ...
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