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Using survey questions to measure preferences: lessons from an experimental validation in Kenya
Bauer, Michal; Chytilová, Julie; Miguel, E.
2020 - anglický
Can a short survey instrument reliably measure a range of fundamental economic preferences across diverse settings? We focus on survey questions that systematically predict behavior in incentivized experimental tasks among German university students (Becker et al. 2016) and were implemented among representative samples across the globe (Falk et al. 2018). This paper presents results of an experimental validation conducted among low-income individuals in Nairobi, Kenya. We find that quantitative survey measures -- hypothetical versions of experimental tasks -- of time preference, attitude to risk and altruism are good predictors of choices in incentivized experiments, suggesting these measures are broadly experimentally valid. At the same time, we find that qualitative questions -- self-assessments -- do not correlate with the experimental measures of preferences in the Kenyan sample. Thus, caution is needed before treating self-assessments as proxies of preferences in new contexts.\n
Klíčová slova:
preference measurement; experiment; survey
Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
Using survey questions to measure preferences: lessons from an experimental validation in Kenya
Can a short survey instrument reliably measure a range of fundamental economic preferences across diverse settings? We focus on survey questions that systematically predict behavior in incentivized ...
On policy evaluation with aggregate time-series shocks
Arkhangelsky, D.; Korovkin, Vasily
2020 - anglický
We propose a general strategy for estimating treatment effects, in contexts where the only source of exogenous variation is a sequence of aggregate time-series shocks. We start by arguing that commonly used estimation procedures tend to ignore the crucial time-series aspects of the data. Next, we develop a graphical tool and a novel test to illustrate the issues of the design using data from influential studies in development economics [Nunn and Qian, 2014] and macroeconomics [Nakamura and Steinsson, 2014]. Motivated by these studies, we construct a new estimator, which is based on the time-series model for the aggregate shock. We analyze the statistical properties of our estimator in the practically relevant case, where both cross-sectional and time-series dimensions are of similar size. Finally, to provide causal interpretation for our estimator, we analyze a new causal model that allows taking into account both rich unobserved heterogeneity in potential outcomes and unobserved aggregate shocks.
Klíčová slova:
continuous difference in differences; panel data; causal effects
Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
On policy evaluation with aggregate time-series shocks
We propose a general strategy for estimating treatment effects, in contexts where the only source of exogenous variation is a sequence of aggregate time-series shocks. We start by arguing that ...
Using Bluetooth technology for COVID-19 contact tracing
Jann, Ole; Kocourek, Pavel; Steiner, Jakub
2020 - anglický
The coronavirus is transmitted indiscriminately through proximity, which makes tracing infections difficult. Bluetooth tracing apps can reliably record transmission possibilities even when the participants do not know each other and do not remember the interaction. This can be done with a high degree of privacy. A well-designed app provides a similar level of privacy to not using an app at all. Decentralized data storage means that the privacy and security of the system is highly resilient against exploitation by any powerful actor (such as a government). A disadvantage of protecting privacy through decentralization is that tracing apps need to be taken up by the population one person at a time. Their use cannot be checked remotely and hence cannot be effectively mandated by governments or health authorities. A very high degree of take-up is necessary to make them an effective weapon against the virus. The eRouška app by COVID19cz follows these principles and offers a very high degree of privacy protection. Specifically, it does not collect any data except the phone numbers of non-infected users, and only collects anonymized meeting data (and no location or other metadata) of infected users – this data is only available to a hygienist after voluntary data transmission by the user. No data is transmitted to the server without explicit user agreement.
Klíčová slova:
COVID-19; COVID-19 contact tracing
Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
Using Bluetooth technology for COVID-19 contact tracing
The coronavirus is transmitted indiscriminately through proximity, which makes tracing infections difficult. Bluetooth tracing apps can reliably record transmission possibilities even when the ...
Avoiding root-finding in the Krusell-Smith algorithm simulation
Bakota, Ivo
2020 - anglický
This paper proposes a novel method to compute the simulation part of the Krusell-Smith (1997, 1998) algorithm when the agents can trade in more than one asset (for example, capital and bonds). The Krusell-Smith algorithm is used to solve general equilibrium models with both aggregate and uninsurable idiosyncratic risk and can be used to solve bounded rationality equilibria and to approximate rational expectations equilibria. When applied to solve a model with more than one financial asset, in the simulation, the standard algorithm has to impose equilibria for each additional asset (find the market-clearing price), for each period simulated. This procedure entails root-finding for each period, which is computationally very expensive. I show that it is possible to avoid this rootfinding by not imposing the equilibria each period, but instead by simulating the model without market clearing. The method updates the law of motion for asset prices by using Newton-like methods (Broyden’s method) on the simulated excess demand, instead of imposing equilibrium for each period and running regressions on the clearing prices. Since the method avoids the root-finding for each time period simulated, it leads to a significant reduction in computation time. In the example model, the proposed version of the algorithm leads to a 32% decrease in computational time, even when measured conservatively. This method could be especially useful in computing asset pricing models (for example, models with risky and safe assets) with both aggregate and uninsurable idiosyncratic risk since methods which use linearization in the neighborhood of the aggregate steady state are considered to be less accurate than global solution methods for these particular types of models.
Klíčová slova:
portfolio choice; heterogeneous agents; Krusell-Smith
Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
Avoiding root-finding in the Krusell-Smith algorithm simulation
This paper proposes a novel method to compute the simulation part of the Krusell-Smith (1997, 1998) algorithm when the agents can trade in more than one asset (for example, capital and bonds). The ...
Partial Memory Loss: Sacred Folk Songs of the Czech Lands
Uhlíková, Lucie; Toncrová, Marta
2019 - anglický
The paper deals with religious folk songs of the Czech lands, their origin and development. It illustrates how sacred songs came into the folk singing tradition, how they spread within it and how they were transformed, commenting also on their primary religious function.
Klíčová slova:
Czech religious/sacred songs; folk songs; religion and folk culture; variational process and sacred songs; totalitarian censorship; folklore and communication memory
Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
Partial Memory Loss: Sacred Folk Songs of the Czech Lands
The paper deals with religious folk songs of the Czech lands, their origin and development. It illustrates how sacred songs came into the folk singing tradition, how they spread within it and how they ...
A human capital theory of structural transformation
Gillman, Max
2019 - anglický
The paper presents a human capital based theory of the sectoral transformation along the balanced growth path equilibrium. Allowing a small upward trend in the productivity of the human capital sector, combined with differential human capital intensity and constant productivity across sectors, output gradually shifts over time from relatively less human capital intensive sectors towards more human capital intensive sectors. Sectors intensive in the factor that is becoming relatively more plentiful find their relative prices falling, their “effective productivities” rising at differential rates inversely to their relative price decline, and their relative outputs expanding. Adding more sectors of greater human capital intensity causes labor time to decrease across existing sectors, and by relatively more in the least human capital sectors.
Klíčová slova:
human capital intensity; sectoral allocation; labor shares
Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
A human capital theory of structural transformation
The paper presents a human capital based theory of the sectoral transformation along the balanced growth path equilibrium. Allowing a small upward trend in the productivity of the human capital ...
Worker heterogeneity and the asymmetric effects of minimum wages
Luna Alpizar, Jose Luis
2019 - anglický
This paper explores the notion that minimum wages affect different lowskilled workers aszmmetrically due to productivity differences. In a search model with worker heterogeneity, a rising minimum wage lowers the employment and labor force participation of the least productive workers by pricing them out of the market, while having the opposite effect on other low-skilled workers that remain hirable. CPS data supports these predictions, a rise in the minimum reduces the employment and labor force participation of teenagers with less than high school education, but has the opposite effect on prime-age workers with high school attainment. The calibrated model requires small firm surpluses to match these observations. If firm surplus is small due to high nonmarket activity values, a moderate rise in the minimum improves aggregate welfare even when the worker's bergaining weight is high.
Klíčová slova:
minimum wages; search and matching; unemployment
Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
Worker heterogeneity and the asymmetric effects of minimum wages
This paper explores the notion that minimum wages affect different lowskilled workers aszmmetrically due to productivity differences. In a search model with worker heterogeneity, a rising minimum wage ...
Do minorities misrepresent their ethnicity to avoid discrimination?
Kudashvili, Nikoloz; Lergetporer, P.
2019 - anglický
Discrimination against minorities is pervasive in many societies, but little is known about strategies minorities may apply to minimize discrimination. In our trust game with 758 highschool students in the country of Georgia, ethnic Georgian trustors discriminate against the ethnic Armenian minority group. We introduce an initial signaling stage to investigate Armenians’ willingness to hide their ethnicity to avoid expected discrimination. 43 percent of Armenian trustees untruthfully signal that they have a Georgian name. Signaling behavior is driven by expected transfers and non-pecuniary motives. This strategic misrepresentation of ethnicity increases Georgian trustors’ expected back transfers and eliminates their discriminatory behavior.\n
Klíčová slova:
discrimination; trust game; experiment
Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
Do minorities misrepresent their ethnicity to avoid discrimination?
Discrimination against minorities is pervasive in many societies, but little is known about strategies minorities may apply to minimize discrimination. In our trust game with 758 highschool students ...
Granger predictability of oil prices after the great recession
Benk, S.; Gillman, Max
2019 - anglický
Real oil prices surged from 2009 through 2014, comparable to the 1970ís oil shock period. Standard explanations based on monopoly markup fall short since ináation remained low after 2009. This paper contributes strong evidence of Granger (1969) predictability of nominal factors to oil prices, using one adjustment to monetary aggregates. This adjustment is the subtraction from the monetary aggregates of the 2008-2009 Federal Reserve borrowing of reserves from other Central Banks (Swaps), made after US reserves turned negative. This adjustment is key in that Granger predictability from standard monetary aggregates is found only with the Swaps subtracted.
Klíčová slova:
oil price shocks; granger predictability; monetary base
Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
Granger predictability of oil prices after the great recession
Real oil prices surged from 2009 through 2014, comparable to the 1970ís oil shock period. Standard explanations based on monopoly markup fall short since ináation remained low after 2009. This paper ...
Partial Memory Loss: Sacred Folk Songs of the Czech Lands
Uhlíková, Lucie; Toncrová, Marta
2019 - anglický
The paper deals with religious folk songs of the Czech lands, their origin and development. It illustrates how sacred songs came into the folk singing tradition, how they spread within it and how they were transformed, commenting also on their primary religious function.
Klíčová slova:
Czech religious/sacred songs; folk songs; religion and folk culture; variational process and sacred songs; totalitarian censorship; folklore and communication memory
Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
Partial Memory Loss: Sacred Folk Songs of the Czech Lands
The paper deals with religious folk songs of the Czech lands, their origin and development. It illustrates how sacred songs came into the folk singing tradition, how they spread within it and how they ...
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