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The U.S. low-wage structure: a McWage comparison
Ashenfelter, O.; Jurajda, Štěpán
2024 - anglický
Thanks to standardized work protocol and technology of McDonald’s restaurants, the hourly wage of McDonald’s Basic Crew enables wage comparisons under near-identical skill inputs and hedonic job conditions. McWages capture labor costs in entry-level jobs, while the Big Macs (earned) Per Hour (BMPH) index measures corresponding purchasing power of wages. We document large and growing geographical wage differences in standardized jobs using data covering most U.S. counties during 2016-2023. Before the Covid-19 pandemic, there was no BMPH growth where minimum wages stayed constant, but the pandemic wage increase, which diminished the importance of minimum wages, was stronger in these areas.
Klíčová slova:
wage comparisons; labor costs; purchasing power
Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
The U.S. low-wage structure: a McWage comparison
Thanks to standardized work protocol and technology of McDonald’s restaurants, the hourly wage of McDonald’s Basic Crew enables wage comparisons under near-identical skill inputs and hedonic job ...
The American origin of the French Revolution
Ottinger, Sebastian; Rosenberger, L.
2024 - anglický
We show that the French combatants’ exposure to the United States increased support for the French Revolution a decade later. French regions from which more American combatants originated had more revolts against feudal institutions, revolutionary societies, volunteers for the revolutionary army, and emigrants from the Old Regime’s elite. To establish causality, we exploit two historical coincidences: i) originally, a French army of seven and a half thousand was ready to sail, but one-third did not, ii) among those deployed, only some regiments were stationed in New England. Only combatants exposed to New England affected the French Revolution after their return.
Klíčová slova:
institutional change; French Revolution; American War of Independence
Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
The American origin of the French Revolution
We show that the French combatants’ exposure to the United States increased support for the French Revolution a decade later. French regions from which more American combatants originated had more ...
Survey expectations, adaptive learning and inflation dynamics
Rychalovska, Y.; Slobodyan, Sergey; Wouters, R.
2024 - anglický
The use of survey information on inflation expectations as an observable in a DSGE model can substantially refine identification of the shocks that drive inflation. Optimal integration of the survey information improves the model forecast for inflation and for other macroeconomic variables. Models with expectations based on an Adaptive Learning setup can exploit survey information more efficiently than their Rational Expectations counterparts. The resulting time-variation in the perceived inflation target, in inflation persistence, and in the sensitivity of inflation to various shocks provide a rich and consistent description of the joint dynamics of realized and expected inflation. Our framework produces a reasonable interpretation of the post-Covid inflation dynamics. Our learning model successfully identifies the more persistent nature of the recent inflation surge.
Klíčová slova:
inflation; expectations; survey data
Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
Survey expectations, adaptive learning and inflation dynamics
The use of survey information on inflation expectations as an observable in a DSGE model can substantially refine identification of the shocks that drive inflation. Optimal integration of the survey ...
Forced migration and crime: evidence from the 2014 immigration wave to Russia
Shcherbov, Arsenii
2024 - anglický
Recent years have spurred significant migration movements, underscoring the need to understand their impacts. This study explores a widely-debated correlation between crime and migration. Specifically, I investigate the 2014 migration wave, studying the response of Russian crime rates to the influx of immigrants from Ukraine. I approximate local crime rates using court data on sentencing decisions and describe relevant migration flows with internet search activity. The application of the difference-in-differences method reveals positive effects for property crime sentencing and the heterogeneous response of violent crime sentencing. The findings of this study are policy-relevant and could prove beneficial in understanding and mitigating the effects of future migration waves.
Klíčová slova:
crime; migration; Russia
Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
Forced migration and crime: evidence from the 2014 immigration wave to Russia
Recent years have spurred significant migration movements, underscoring the need to understand their impacts. This study explores a widely-debated correlation between crime and migration. ...
Winning culture, winning future: the effects of early-career success on long-run performance
Trestcov, Ivan; Rakhmetova, Aizhamal
2024 - anglický
This paper investigates the influence of early-career environments on long-run performance. Utilizing quasi-randomness of the NBA Draft Lottery system, we isolate the impacts of initial team success, coaching experience, and the presence of a star player during a basketball player’s debut season. Our findings underscore the significant positive effects of early team wins and experienced coaches on future player performance. Surprisingly, playing alongside a star player in the first year does not show a strong influence. This study offers insights that extend beyond sports, emphasizing the lasting effects of early professional experience and mentorship on career trajectories.
Klíčová slova:
early-career success; NBA draft lottery; long-term performance
Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
Winning culture, winning future: the effects of early-career success on long-run performance
This paper investigates the influence of early-career environments on long-run performance. Utilizing quasi-randomness of the NBA Draft Lottery system, we isolate the impacts of initial team success, ...
The heterogeneous consequences of reduced labor costs on firm productivity
Del Prato, F.; Zacchia, Paolo
2024 - anglický
We document how a reduction in labor costs led to heterogeneous effects on the total factor productivity (TFP) of manufacturing firms. Leveraging an Italian labor legislation reform and unique institutional features of the local collective bargaining system, we show that such effects vary along the TFP distribution. Relative to the counterfactual, TFP markedly declines on the left tail, which we explain via selection mechanisms, on the right, TFP mildly increases as firms are able to expand and reallocate their workforce. To guide the evaluation of welfare implications, we develop a general equilibrium model featuring firm selection and frictions in input markets.
Klíčová slova:
labor costs; productivity; collective bargaining
Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
The heterogeneous consequences of reduced labor costs on firm productivity
We document how a reduction in labor costs led to heterogeneous effects on the total factor productivity (TFP) of manufacturing firms. Leveraging an Italian labor legislation reform and unique ...
COVID-19 and political preferences through stages of the pandemic: the case of the Czech Republic
Bičáková, Alena; Jurajda, Štěpán
2024 - anglický
We track the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on political preferences through ‘high’ and ‘low’ phases of the pandemic. We ask about the effects of the health and the economic costs of the pandemic measured at both personal and municipality levels. Consistent with the literature, we estimate effects suggestive of political accountability of leaders during ‘high’ pandemic phases. However, we also find that the pandemic political accountability effects are mostly short-lived, and do not extend to the first post-pandemic elections.
Klíčová slova:
COVID-19; political preferences; election outcomes
Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
COVID-19 and political preferences through stages of the pandemic: the case of the Czech Republic
We track the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on political preferences through ‘high’ and ‘low’ phases of the pandemic. We ask about the effects of the health and the economic costs of the pandemic ...
Collective vs. family remembrance: evidence from two Russian betrayals
Gharibyan, Sinara
2024 - anglický
Is family or collective remembrance of the distant past more powerful in shaping current behavior? To answer this question, I link two historical episodes from Armenian history separated by a century. During both World War I (WWI) and the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War, Russia was anticipated to provide military support to Armenia, its ally, but failed to do so. I demonstrate that the memories of the first Russian betrayal were activated after the second war. I identify family memory of the first betrayal using distinct West Armenian (Ottoman Armenian) surnames and proxy collective memory through locations renamed to commemorate lost Armenian localities during WWI. The difference-in-differences (DiD) approach shows that both family and collective remembrance negatively affect pro-Russian parties’ vote share, with all the conventional assumptions of DiD verified. Family remembrance influences behavior through traumatic recall, whereas collective remembrance operates via social capital.
Klíčová slova:
collective memory; family remembrance; voting
Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
Collective vs. family remembrance: evidence from two Russian betrayals
Is family or collective remembrance of the distant past more powerful in shaping current behavior? To answer this question, I link two historical episodes from Armenian history separated by a century. ...
Matching to suppliers in the production network: an empirical framework
Alfaro-Ureña, A.; Zacchia, Paolo
2024 - anglický
This paper develops a framework for the empirical analysis of the determinants of input supplier choice on the extensive margin using firm-to-firm transaction data. Building on a theoretical model of production network formation, we characterize the assumptions that enable a transformation of the multinomial logit likelihood function from which the seller fixed effects, which encode the seller marginal costs, vanish. This transformation conditions, for each subnetwork restricted to one supplier industry, on the out-degree of sellers (a sufficient statistic for the seller fixed effect) and the in-degree of buyers (which is pinned down by technology and by “make-or-buy” decisions). This approach delivers a consistent estimator for the effect of dyadic explanatory variables, which in our model are interpreted as matching frictions, on the supplier choice probability. The estimator is easy to implement and in Monte Carlo simulations it outperforms alternatives based on group fixed effects. In an empirical application about the effect of a major Costa Rican infrastructural project on firm-to-firm connections, our approach yields estimates typically much smaller in magnitude than those from naive multinomial logit.
Klíčová slova:
production network; supplier choice; conditional logit
Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
Matching to suppliers in the production network: an empirical framework
This paper develops a framework for the empirical analysis of the determinants of input supplier choice on the extensive margin using firm-to-firm transaction data. Building on a theoretical model of ...
Disappearing stepping stones: technological change and career paths
Kashkarov, Daniil; Artemev, V.
2024 - anglický
Which career paths lead workers towards high-skilled non-routine cognitive occupations? Using PSID data, we show that, for a significant share of workers, a career path towards non-routine cognitive occupations goes through middle-skilled routine occupations, with the majority going through a subset of routine cognitive occupations. We then argue that the decline in employment in routine cognitive occupations due to routine-biased technological change can negatively affect the chances of younger cohorts joining high-skilled occupations. To test this hypothesis, we develop a structural occupational choice model that endogenously generates realistic career paths and estimate it using PSID data and job ad data from three major US outlets covering the period from 1940 to 2000. Our estimations suggest that, on average, 6% of workers ending up in non-routine cognitive occupations use routine cognitive occupations as stepping stones that allow them to maintain and accumulate human capital and experience relevant for later employment in high-skilled occupations. A fall in employment opportunities in routine cognitive occupations over the period of the most intensive routine-biased technological change led to at least 1.37 million lost high-skilled workers who got stuck in less skilled occupations.
Klíčová slova:
routine-biased technological change; occupational choice; human capital
Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
Disappearing stepping stones: technological change and career paths
Which career paths lead workers towards high-skilled non-routine cognitive occupations? Using PSID data, we show that, for a significant share of workers, a career path towards non-routine cognitive ...
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