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Analysis of the 2024 state budget revenue in light of the 2019 pre-crisis year
Janský, Petr; Kolář, Daniel
2024 - Czech
This analysis compares planned state budget revenues in 2024 with the state budget outcomes of 2019. It charts a period in which the Czech economy and public budgets have been heavily impacted by the consequences of several major crises (coronavirus, the invasion of Ukraine and the war, an energy crisis, and an inflationary wave) as well as by significant parametric changes in the Czech tax system. 2019 can be considered the last pre-crisis year and 2024 the first post-crisis year, so they correspond to 'normal times' more closely than the years in between. This analysis builds on a previous analysis of the state budget expenditure development between 2019 and 2024 and includes a brief synthesis of findings on revenues and expenditures. Tato analýza srovnává plánované příjmy státního rozpočtu na rok 2024 s výsledky státního rozpočtu v roce 2019. Mapuje období, během něhož na českou ekonomiku a veřejné rozpočty silně dopadly jak důsledky několika zásadních krizí (koronavirus, napadení Ukrajiny a válka, energetická krize a inflační vlna), tak výrazné parametrické změny českého daňového systému. Rok 2019 lze považovat za poslední předkrizový a rok 2024 za první pokrizový, takže odpovídají ‘normálním časům‘ lépe než roky mezi nimi. Tato analýza svým pojetím navazuje na předchozí analýzu vývoje výdajů státního rozpočtu mezi roky 2019 a 2024 a obsahuje i stručnou syntézu zjištění o vývoji příjmů a výdajů.
Keywords:
budget proposal; budget revenues; Czech Republic
Fulltext is available at external website.
Analysis of the 2024 state budget revenue in light of the 2019 pre-crisis year
This analysis compares planned state budget revenues in 2024 with the state budget outcomes of 2019. It charts a period in which the Czech economy and public budgets have been heavily impacted by the ...
The U.S. low-wage structure: a McWage comparison
Ashenfelter, O.; Jurajda, Štěpán
2024 - English
Thanks to standardized work protocol and technology of McDonald’s restaurants, the hourly wage of McDonald’s Basic Crew enables wage comparisons under near-identical skill inputs and hedonic job conditions. McWages capture labor costs in entry-level jobs, while the Big Macs (earned) Per Hour (BMPH) index measures corresponding purchasing power of wages. We document large and growing geographical wage differences in standardized jobs using data covering most U.S. counties during 2016-2023. Before the Covid-19 pandemic, there was no BMPH growth where minimum wages stayed constant, but the pandemic wage increase, which diminished the importance of minimum wages, was stronger in these areas.
Keywords:
wage comparisons; labor costs; purchasing power
Fulltext is available at external website.
The U.S. low-wage structure: a McWage comparison
Thanks to standardized work protocol and technology of McDonald’s restaurants, the hourly wage of McDonald’s Basic Crew enables wage comparisons under near-identical skill inputs and hedonic job ...
The American origin of the French Revolution
Ottinger, Sebastian; Rosenberger, L.
2024 - English
We show that the French combatants’ exposure to the United States increased support for the French Revolution a decade later. French regions from which more American combatants originated had more revolts against feudal institutions, revolutionary societies, volunteers for the revolutionary army, and emigrants from the Old Regime’s elite. To establish causality, we exploit two historical coincidences: i) originally, a French army of seven and a half thousand was ready to sail, but one-third did not, ii) among those deployed, only some regiments were stationed in New England. Only combatants exposed to New England affected the French Revolution after their return.
Keywords:
institutional change; French Revolution; American War of Independence
Fulltext is available at external website.
The American origin of the French Revolution
We show that the French combatants’ exposure to the United States increased support for the French Revolution a decade later. French regions from which more American combatants originated had more ...
Survey expectations, adaptive learning and inflation dynamics
Rychalovska, Y.; Slobodyan, Sergey; Wouters, R.
2024 - English
The use of survey information on inflation expectations as an observable in a DSGE model can substantially refine identification of the shocks that drive inflation. Optimal integration of the survey information improves the model forecast for inflation and for other macroeconomic variables. Models with expectations based on an Adaptive Learning setup can exploit survey information more efficiently than their Rational Expectations counterparts. The resulting time-variation in the perceived inflation target, in inflation persistence, and in the sensitivity of inflation to various shocks provide a rich and consistent description of the joint dynamics of realized and expected inflation. Our framework produces a reasonable interpretation of the post-Covid inflation dynamics. Our learning model successfully identifies the more persistent nature of the recent inflation surge.
Keywords:
inflation; expectations; survey data
Fulltext is available at external website.
Survey expectations, adaptive learning and inflation dynamics
The use of survey information on inflation expectations as an observable in a DSGE model can substantially refine identification of the shocks that drive inflation. Optimal integration of the survey ...
Forced migration and crime: evidence from the 2014 immigration wave to Russia
Shcherbov, Arsenii
2024 - English
Recent years have spurred significant migration movements, underscoring the need to understand their impacts. This study explores a widely-debated correlation between crime and migration. Specifically, I investigate the 2014 migration wave, studying the response of Russian crime rates to the influx of immigrants from Ukraine. I approximate local crime rates using court data on sentencing decisions and describe relevant migration flows with internet search activity. The application of the difference-in-differences method reveals positive effects for property crime sentencing and the heterogeneous response of violent crime sentencing. The findings of this study are policy-relevant and could prove beneficial in understanding and mitigating the effects of future migration waves.
Keywords:
crime; migration; Russia
Fulltext is available at external website.
Forced migration and crime: evidence from the 2014 immigration wave to Russia
Recent years have spurred significant migration movements, underscoring the need to understand their impacts. This study explores a widely-debated correlation between crime and migration. ...
Winning culture, winning future: the effects of early-career success on long-run performance
Trestcov, Ivan; Rakhmetova, Aizhamal
2024 - English
This paper investigates the influence of early-career environments on long-run performance. Utilizing quasi-randomness of the NBA Draft Lottery system, we isolate the impacts of initial team success, coaching experience, and the presence of a star player during a basketball player’s debut season. Our findings underscore the significant positive effects of early team wins and experienced coaches on future player performance. Surprisingly, playing alongside a star player in the first year does not show a strong influence. This study offers insights that extend beyond sports, emphasizing the lasting effects of early professional experience and mentorship on career trajectories.
Keywords:
early-career success; NBA draft lottery; long-term performance
Fulltext is available at external website.
Winning culture, winning future: the effects of early-career success on long-run performance
This paper investigates the influence of early-career environments on long-run performance. Utilizing quasi-randomness of the NBA Draft Lottery system, we isolate the impacts of initial team success, ...
The heterogeneous consequences of reduced labor costs on firm productivity
Del Prato, F.; Zacchia, Paolo
2024 - English
We document how a reduction in labor costs led to heterogeneous effects on the total factor productivity (TFP) of manufacturing firms. Leveraging an Italian labor legislation reform and unique institutional features of the local collective bargaining system, we show that such effects vary along the TFP distribution. Relative to the counterfactual, TFP markedly declines on the left tail, which we explain via selection mechanisms, on the right, TFP mildly increases as firms are able to expand and reallocate their workforce. To guide the evaluation of welfare implications, we develop a general equilibrium model featuring firm selection and frictions in input markets.
Keywords:
labor costs; productivity; collective bargaining
Fulltext is available at external website.
The heterogeneous consequences of reduced labor costs on firm productivity
We document how a reduction in labor costs led to heterogeneous effects on the total factor productivity (TFP) of manufacturing firms. Leveraging an Italian labor legislation reform and unique ...
COVID-19 and political preferences through stages of the pandemic: the case of the Czech Republic
Bičáková, Alena; Jurajda, Štěpán
2024 - English
We track the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on political preferences through ‘high’ and ‘low’ phases of the pandemic. We ask about the effects of the health and the economic costs of the pandemic measured at both personal and municipality levels. Consistent with the literature, we estimate effects suggestive of political accountability of leaders during ‘high’ pandemic phases. However, we also find that the pandemic political accountability effects are mostly short-lived, and do not extend to the first post-pandemic elections.
Keywords:
COVID-19; political preferences; election outcomes
Fulltext is available at external website.
COVID-19 and political preferences through stages of the pandemic: the case of the Czech Republic
We track the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on political preferences through ‘high’ and ‘low’ phases of the pandemic. We ask about the effects of the health and the economic costs of the pandemic ...
Pupils’ (dis)interest in the teaching profession: an international comparison
Federičová, Miroslava
2024 - Czech
Many European countries, including the Czech Republic, currently face a shortage of teachers, especially quality teachers. One possible solution to this would be to support aspiring teachers at a younger age, during their studies at primary and secondary school. This study provides an empirical overview of teaching aspirations among 15-year-old school pupils in European countries based on data from the international PISA survey. Mnoho evropských zemí včetně Česka se v současnosti potýká s nedostatkem učitelů, těch kvalitních obzvlášť. Jedním z řešení je podpora učitelských profesních aspirací už u mladých během jejich studia na základní a střední škole. Tato studie empiricky mapuje učitelské aspirace v evropských zemích mezi 15letými žáky na základě dat z mezinárodního šetření PISA.
Keywords:
teachers; teaching aspirations; international comparison
Fulltext is available at external website.
Pupils’ (dis)interest in the teaching profession: an international comparison
Many European countries, including the Czech Republic, currently face a shortage of teachers, especially quality teachers. One possible solution to this would be to support aspiring teachers at a ...
Collective vs. family remembrance: evidence from two Russian betrayals
Gharibyan, Sinara
2024 - English
Is family or collective remembrance of the distant past more powerful in shaping current behavior? To answer this question, I link two historical episodes from Armenian history separated by a century. During both World War I (WWI) and the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War, Russia was anticipated to provide military support to Armenia, its ally, but failed to do so. I demonstrate that the memories of the first Russian betrayal were activated after the second war. I identify family memory of the first betrayal using distinct West Armenian (Ottoman Armenian) surnames and proxy collective memory through locations renamed to commemorate lost Armenian localities during WWI. The difference-in-differences (DiD) approach shows that both family and collective remembrance negatively affect pro-Russian parties’ vote share, with all the conventional assumptions of DiD verified. Family remembrance influences behavior through traumatic recall, whereas collective remembrance operates via social capital.
Keywords:
collective memory; family remembrance; voting
Fulltext is available at external website.
Collective vs. family remembrance: evidence from two Russian betrayals
Is family or collective remembrance of the distant past more powerful in shaping current behavior? To answer this question, I link two historical episodes from Armenian history separated by a century. ...
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