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Analýza příjmů státního rozpočtu 2024 ve světle předkrizového roku 2019
Janský, Petr; Kolář, Daniel
2024 - český
Tato analýza srovnává plánované příjmy státního rozpočtu na rok 2024 s výsledky státního rozpočtu v roce 2019. Mapuje období, během něhož na českou ekonomiku a veřejné rozpočty silně dopadly jak důsledky několika zásadních krizí (koronavirus, napadení Ukrajiny a válka, energetická krize a inflační vlna), tak výrazné parametrické změny českého daňového systému. Rok 2019 lze považovat za poslední předkrizový a rok 2024 za první pokrizový, takže odpovídají ‘normálním časům‘ lépe než roky mezi nimi. Tato analýza svým pojetím navazuje na předchozí analýzu vývoje výdajů státního rozpočtu mezi roky 2019 a 2024 a obsahuje i stručnou syntézu zjištění o vývoji příjmů a výdajů. This analysis compares planned state budget revenues in 2024 with the state budget outcomes of 2019. It charts a period in which the Czech economy and public budgets have been heavily impacted by the consequences of several major crises (coronavirus, the invasion of Ukraine and the war, an energy crisis, and an inflationary wave) as well as by significant parametric changes in the Czech tax system. 2019 can be considered the last pre-crisis year and 2024 the first post-crisis year, so they correspond to 'normal times' more closely than the years in between. This analysis builds on a previous analysis of the state budget expenditure development between 2019 and 2024 and includes a brief synthesis of findings on revenues and expenditures.
Klíčová slova:
budget proposal; budget revenues; Czech Republic
Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
Analýza příjmů státního rozpočtu 2024 ve světle předkrizového roku 2019
Tato analýza srovnává plánované příjmy státního rozpočtu na rok 2024 s výsledky státního rozpočtu v roce 2019. Mapuje období, během něhož na českou ekonomiku a veřejné rozpočty silně dopadly jak ...
The American origin of the French Revolution
Ottinger, Sebastian; Rosenberger, L.
2024 - anglický
We show that the French combatants’ exposure to the United States increased support for the French Revolution a decade later. French regions from which more American combatants originated had more revolts against feudal institutions, revolutionary societies, volunteers for the revolutionary army, and emigrants from the Old Regime’s elite. To establish causality, we exploit two historical coincidences: i) originally, a French army of seven and a half thousand was ready to sail, but one-third did not, ii) among those deployed, only some regiments were stationed in New England. Only combatants exposed to New England affected the French Revolution after their return.
Klíčová slova:
institutional change; French Revolution; American War of Independence
Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
The American origin of the French Revolution
We show that the French combatants’ exposure to the United States increased support for the French Revolution a decade later. French regions from which more American combatants originated had more ...
COVID-19 and political preferences through stages of the pandemic: the case of the Czech Republic
Bičáková, Alena; Jurajda, Štěpán
2024 - anglický
We track the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on political preferences through ‘high’ and ‘low’ phases of the pandemic. We ask about the effects of the health and the economic costs of the pandemic measured at both personal and municipality levels. Consistent with the literature, we estimate effects suggestive of political accountability of leaders during ‘high’ pandemic phases. However, we also find that the pandemic political accountability effects are mostly short-lived, and do not extend to the first post-pandemic elections.
Klíčová slova:
COVID-19; political preferences; election outcomes
Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
COVID-19 and political preferences through stages of the pandemic: the case of the Czech Republic
We track the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on political preferences through ‘high’ and ‘low’ phases of the pandemic. We ask about the effects of the health and the economic costs of the pandemic ...
(Ne)zájem žáků o učitelskou profesi: mezinárodní srovnání
Federičová, Miroslava
2024 - český
Mnoho evropských zemí včetně Česka se v současnosti potýká s nedostatkem učitelů, těch kvalitních obzvlášť. Jedním z řešení je podpora učitelských profesních aspirací už u mladých během jejich studia na základní a střední škole. Tato studie empiricky mapuje učitelské aspirace v evropských zemích mezi 15letými žáky na základě dat z mezinárodního šetření PISA. Many European countries, including the Czech Republic, currently face a shortage of teachers, especially quality teachers. One possible solution to this would be to support aspiring teachers at a younger age, during their studies at primary and secondary school. This study provides an empirical overview of teaching aspirations among 15-year-old school pupils in European countries based on data from the international PISA survey.
Klíčová slova:
teachers; teaching aspirations; international comparison
Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
(Ne)zájem žáků o učitelskou profesi: mezinárodní srovnání
Mnoho evropských zemí včetně Česka se v současnosti potýká s nedostatkem učitelů, těch kvalitních obzvlášť. Jedním z řešení je podpora učitelských profesních aspirací už u mladých během jejich studia ...
Matching to suppliers in the production network: an empirical framework
Alfaro-Ureña, A.; Zacchia, Paolo
2024 - anglický
This paper develops a framework for the empirical analysis of the determinants of input supplier choice on the extensive margin using firm-to-firm transaction data. Building on a theoretical model of production network formation, we characterize the assumptions that enable a transformation of the multinomial logit likelihood function from which the seller fixed effects, which encode the seller marginal costs, vanish. This transformation conditions, for each subnetwork restricted to one supplier industry, on the out-degree of sellers (a sufficient statistic for the seller fixed effect) and the in-degree of buyers (which is pinned down by technology and by “make-or-buy” decisions). This approach delivers a consistent estimator for the effect of dyadic explanatory variables, which in our model are interpreted as matching frictions, on the supplier choice probability. The estimator is easy to implement and in Monte Carlo simulations it outperforms alternatives based on group fixed effects. In an empirical application about the effect of a major Costa Rican infrastructural project on firm-to-firm connections, our approach yields estimates typically much smaller in magnitude than those from naive multinomial logit.
Klíčová slova:
production network; supplier choice; conditional logit
Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
Matching to suppliers in the production network: an empirical framework
This paper develops a framework for the empirical analysis of the determinants of input supplier choice on the extensive margin using firm-to-firm transaction data. Building on a theoretical model of ...
Disappearing stepping stones: technological change and career paths
Kashkarov, Daniil; Artemev, V.
2024 - anglický
Which career paths lead workers towards high-skilled non-routine cognitive occupations? Using PSID data, we show that, for a significant share of workers, a career path towards non-routine cognitive occupations goes through middle-skilled routine occupations, with the majority going through a subset of routine cognitive occupations. We then argue that the decline in employment in routine cognitive occupations due to routine-biased technological change can negatively affect the chances of younger cohorts joining high-skilled occupations. To test this hypothesis, we develop a structural occupational choice model that endogenously generates realistic career paths and estimate it using PSID data and job ad data from three major US outlets covering the period from 1940 to 2000. Our estimations suggest that, on average, 6% of workers ending up in non-routine cognitive occupations use routine cognitive occupations as stepping stones that allow them to maintain and accumulate human capital and experience relevant for later employment in high-skilled occupations. A fall in employment opportunities in routine cognitive occupations over the period of the most intensive routine-biased technological change led to at least 1.37 million lost high-skilled workers who got stuck in less skilled occupations.
Klíčová slova:
routine-biased technological change; occupational choice; human capital
Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
Disappearing stepping stones: technological change and career paths
Which career paths lead workers towards high-skilled non-routine cognitive occupations? Using PSID data, we show that, for a significant share of workers, a career path towards non-routine cognitive ...
Rizika reformy doktorského studia
Grosman, Jiří; Jurajda, Štěpán; Münich, Daniel
2024 - český
Systém financování doktorského studia v České republice je dlouhodobě neefektivní. Dokončovaná reforma má za cíl efektivitu systému výrazně zvýšit. V tomto krátkém textu upozorňujeme na potenciální problémy spojené s rozdělováním veřejné finanční podpory doktorského studia mezi vysoké školy. Problematické by bylo rozdělování podpory založené dominantně na míře úspěšného dokončování studií. Alokace veřejné podpory doktorského studia by vedle opodstatněných národních oborových priorit měla zohledňovat výsledky hodnocení kvality vědy na vysokých školách a úspěšnost v kariérním umisťování absolventů. The system of financing doctoral studies in the Czech Republic has long been inefficient. A reform currently underway aims to significantly increase the efficiency of the system. In this short text, we draw attention to potential problems associated with the distribution of public financial support for doctoral studies among universities. It would be problematic to distribute support based predominantly on degree completion rates. Allocation of public support for doctoral studies should take into account the results of evaluations of the quality of science produced by universities and their success in career placement of graduates, in addition to justifiable national disciplinary priorities.
Klíčová slova:
doctoral studies; public financial support; Czech Republic
Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
Rizika reformy doktorského studia
Systém financování doktorského studia v České republice je dlouhodobě neefektivní. Dokončovaná reforma má za cíl efektivitu systému výrazně zvýšit. V tomto krátkém textu upozorňujeme na potenciální ...
Generace X a Y očima dat: když byli rodiče mladí jako my
Peňázová, Eva; Šoltés, Michal
2023 - český
Studie představuje unikátní srovnání současného života generace Y, tzv. mileniálů (narozeni 1981–1996), s generací X jejich rodičů (narozeni 1965–1980) na základě dostupných statistik týkajících se úrovně vzdělanosti, partnerských vztahů či relativních výdělků. This study presents a unique comparison of the lives of generation Y (millennials, born in 1981–1996) and those of generation X (their parents, born in 1965–1980) at the same age, based on available statistics related to education levels, relationships, and relative earnings.\n
Klíčová slova:
generation Y; generation X; income and living conditions
Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
Generace X a Y očima dat: když byli rodiče mladí jako my
Studie představuje unikátní srovnání současného života generace Y, tzv. mileniálů (narozeni 1981–1996), s generací X jejich rodičů (narozeni 1965–1980) na základě dostupných statistik týkajících se ...
Professional survey forecasts and expectations in DSGE models
Rychalovska, Y.; Slobodyan, Sergey; Wouters, R.
2023 - anglický
In this paper, we demonstrate the usefulness of survey data for macroeconomic analysis and propose a strategy to integrate and efficiently utilize information from surveys in the DSGE setup. We extend the set of observable variables to include the data on consumption, investment, output, and inflation expectations, as measured by the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). By doing so, we aim to discipline the dynamics of model-based expectations and evaluate alternative belief models. Our approach to exploit the timely information from surveys is based on re-specification of structural shocks into persistent and transitory components. Due to the SPF, we are able to improve identification of fundamental shocks and predictive power of the model by separating the sources of low and high frequency volatility. Furthermore, we show that models with an imperfectly-rational expectation formation mechanism based on Adaptive Learning (AL) can reduce important limitations implied by the Rational Expectation (RE) hypothesis. More specifically, our models based on belief updating can better capture macroeconomic trend shifts and, as a result, achieve superior long-term predictions. In addition, the AL mechanism can produce realistic time variation in the transmission of shocks and perceived macro-economic volatility, which allows the model to better explain the investment dynamics. Finally, AL models, which relax the RE constraint of internal consistency between the agents’ and model forecasts, can reproduce the main features of agents’ predictions in line with SPF evidence and, at the same time, can generate improved model forecasts, thus diminishing possible inefficiencies present in surveys.
Klíčová slova:
expectations; survey data; adaptive learning
Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
Professional survey forecasts and expectations in DSGE models
In this paper, we demonstrate the usefulness of survey data for macroeconomic analysis and propose a strategy to integrate and efficiently utilize information from surveys in the DSGE setup. We extend ...
Gender gap in reported childcare preferences among parents
Pertold, Filip; Sinani, S.; Šoltés, M.
2023 - anglický
The child penalty explains the majority of gender employment and wage gaps, however, less is known about the factors driving the child penalty itself. In this paper, we study the gender gap in childcare preferences as a potential factor that contributes to the child penalty. We surveyed Czech parents and elicited the minimal compensation they would require to stay home to care for a child. Mothers require less compensation for childcare than fathers. The estimated gender gap in childcare preferences is CZK 2,500 monthly, 7.6% of the median female wage, and cannot be explained by differences in labor market opportunities or prosocial motives to care for a family member. We further document widespread misperception of fathers’ preferences, as respondents incorrectly expect fathers to require less to care for a child than to care for an elderly parent.\n
Klíčová slova:
childcare; gender wage gap; gender employment gap
Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
Gender gap in reported childcare preferences among parents
The child penalty explains the majority of gender employment and wage gaps, however, less is known about the factors driving the child penalty itself. In this paper, we study the gender gap in ...
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