Ne (888)
Ano (306)
Počet nalezených dokumentů:
1194
Publikováno od
do
Professional survey forecasts and expectations in DSGE models
Rychalovska, Y.; Slobodyan, Sergey; Wouters, R.
2023 - anglický
In this paper, we demonstrate the usefulness of survey data for macroeconomic analysis and propose a strategy to integrate and efficiently utilize information from surveys in the DSGE setup. We extend the set of observable variables to include the data on consumption, investment, output, and inflation expectations, as measured by the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). By doing so, we aim to discipline the dynamics of model-based expectations and evaluate alternative belief models. Our approach to exploit the timely information from surveys is based on re-specification of structural shocks into persistent and transitory components. Due to the SPF, we are able to improve identification of fundamental shocks and predictive power of the model by separating the sources of low and high frequency volatility. Furthermore, we show that models with an imperfectly-rational expectation formation mechanism based on Adaptive Learning (AL) can reduce important limitations implied by the Rational Expectation (RE) hypothesis. More specifically, our models based on belief updating can better capture macroeconomic trend shifts and, as a result, achieve superior long-term predictions. In addition, the AL mechanism can produce realistic time variation in the transmission of shocks and perceived macro-economic volatility, which allows the model to better explain the investment dynamics. Finally, AL models, which relax the RE constraint of internal consistency between the agents’ and model forecasts, can reproduce the main features of agents’ predictions in line with SPF evidence and, at the same time, can generate improved model forecasts, thus diminishing possible inefficiencies present in surveys.
Klíčová slova:
expectations; survey data; adaptive learning
Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
Professional survey forecasts and expectations in DSGE models
In this paper, we demonstrate the usefulness of survey data for macroeconomic analysis and propose a strategy to integrate and efficiently utilize information from surveys in the DSGE setup. We extend ...
Gender gap in reported childcare preferences among parents
Pertold, Filip; Sinani, S.; Šoltés, M.
2023 - anglický
The child penalty explains the majority of gender employment and wage gaps, however, less is known about the factors driving the child penalty itself. In this paper, we study the gender gap in childcare preferences as a potential factor that contributes to the child penalty. We surveyed Czech parents and elicited the minimal compensation they would require to stay home to care for a child. Mothers require less compensation for childcare than fathers. The estimated gender gap in childcare preferences is CZK 2,500 monthly, 7.6% of the median female wage, and cannot be explained by differences in labor market opportunities or prosocial motives to care for a family member. We further document widespread misperception of fathers’ preferences, as respondents incorrectly expect fathers to require less to care for a child than to care for an elderly parent.\n
Klíčová slova:
childcare; gender wage gap; gender employment gap
Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
Gender gap in reported childcare preferences among parents
The child penalty explains the majority of gender employment and wage gaps, however, less is known about the factors driving the child penalty itself. In this paper, we study the gender gap in ...
Key barriers, opportunities and good practices for entrepreneurship and innovation
Křížková, Alena; Marková Volejníčková, Romana; Pospíšilová, Marie; Vohlídalová, Marta
2023 - anglický
The report is focused on barriers, opportunities and good practices for gender-sensitive innovations and entrepreneurship. It is based on the analysis of 36 interviews with experts from the health, green and digital fields and the target groups defined in the quadruple helix of academia, citizens, industry, and government. The interviews were collected by 12 GILL partners in the 10 consortium countries in 2023. Gender stereotypical cultural beliefs and norms, masculine bias, gender segregation, lack of funding, lack of policies to support work-life balance and lack of political will and empirical evidence to remove these barriers are the main problems identified. The opportunities reflected largely correspond to these barriers and highlight the role of key actors, such as the EU, in setting standards. Projects focusing on fixing the number of women under-represented in certain fields and occupations and management positions predominate among good practices.
Klíčová slova:
.gender equality; gender in entrepreneurship; gender in science; gender in innovation; gender stereotypes; good practices
Plné texty jsou dostupné v digitálním repozitáři Akademie Věd.
Key barriers, opportunities and good practices for entrepreneurship and innovation
The report is focused on barriers, opportunities and good practices for gender-sensitive innovations and entrepreneurship. It is based on the analysis of 36 interviews with experts from the health, ...
Infants' learning of novel segments is modulated by prosody
Chládková, Kateřina; Podlipský, V.J.; Nudga, Natalia; Paillereau, Nikola; Kynčlová, Kateřina; Šimáčková, Š.
2023 - anglický
Young infants recognize atypical realisations of native-language speech. Later they learn words better from native-accented talkers. However, 6-month-olds preferentially listen to unfamiliar speech. We tested whether the learning of new vowels matches 6-month-olds’ listening preferences, being more effective from nonnative-accented speech. We exposed Czech six-month-olds to delexicalised utterances with consonants replaced by [f] and vowels by 405 tokens sampled from a bimodal [ɛ]-[æ] distribution, a contrast absent from Czech, and with either native or atypical rhythm. Discrimination of [ɛ]-[æ] was then tested in an alternating/non-alternating paradigm. Longer first-look duration to non-alternating than to alternating trials – indicating a learning effect – was found in infants familiarised with the novel contrast in atypical rhythm, such effect was not\ndetected after familiarisation with native rhythm. Six-month-olds thus more effectively exploit distributional information about novel vowels from non-native rhythm, which matches their previously reported preferences for listening to novel over familiar accents.
Klíčová slova:
distributional learning; selective learning; non-native rhythm; vowels; infancy
Plné texty jsou dostupné na vyžádání prostřednictvím repozitáře Akademie věd.
Infants' learning of novel segments is modulated by prosody
Young infants recognize atypical realisations of native-language speech. Later they learn words better from native-accented talkers. However, 6-month-olds preferentially listen to unfamiliar speech. ...
Inflation expectations in the wake of the war in Ukraine
Afunts, Geghetsik; Cato, M.; Schmidt, T.
2023 - anglický
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is posing a range of new challenges to the global economy, including affecting the inflation expectations of individuals. In this paper, we aim to quantify the effect of the invasion on short- and long-term inflation expectations of individuals in Germany. We use microdata from the Bundesbank Online Panel - Households (BOP-HH), for the period from February 15th to March 29th, 2022. Treating the unanticipated start of the war in Ukraine on the 24th of February 2022 as a natural experiment, we find that both short- and long-term inflation expectations increased as an immediate result of the invasion. Long-term inflation expectations increased by around 0.4 percentage points, while the impact on short-term inflation expectations was more than twice as large - around one percentage point. Looking into the possible mechanisms of this increase, we suggest that it can be partially attributed to individuals’ fears of soaring energy prices and increasing pessimism about economic trends in general. Our results indicate that large economic shocks can have a substantial impact on both short and long-term inflation expectations.
Klíčová slova:
inflation expectations; Russian invasion of Ukraine; survey
Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
Inflation expectations in the wake of the war in Ukraine
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is posing a range of new challenges to the global economy, including affecting the inflation expectations of individuals. In this paper, we aim to quantify the effect of ...
Parental allowance increase and labour supply: evidence from a Czech reform
Grossmann, Jakub; Pertold, Filip; Šoltés, M.
2023 - anglický
We study the effect of a CZK 80,000 (36%) increase in parental allowance, a universal basic income-type benefit, on the labor supply of parents in the Czech Republic. Drawing a parental allowance does not preclude labor market activity, which allows us to study the income effect. After the reform, mothers substantially prolonged the average period they drew an allowance. The labor market participation of mothers of young children decreased by 6 percentage points (15%). The estimated effect corresponds to a non-labor income labor supply elasticity at the extensive margin of about -0.5. The effect is particularly strong among mothers with their first child (10 p.p. or 28%) and among university-educated mothers (16 p.p. or 36%). We observe a virtually identical reduction in hours worked. We found no effect on the labor supply of fathers.
Klíčová slova:
parental allowance; maternal labor supply; income effect of social policy
Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
Parental allowance increase and labour supply: evidence from a Czech reform
We study the effect of a CZK 80,000 (36%) increase in parental allowance, a universal basic income-type benefit, on the labor supply of parents in the Czech Republic. Drawing a parental allowance does ...
Voting under debtor distress
Grossmann, Jakub; Jurajda, Štěpán
2023 - anglický
There is growing evidence on the role of economic conditions in the recent successes of populist and extremist parties. However, little is known about the role of over-indebtedness, even though debtor distress has grown in Europe following the financial crisis. We study the unique case of the Czech Republic, where by 2017, nearly one in ten citizens had been served at least one debtor distress warrant even though the country consistently features low unemployment. Our municipality-level difference-in-differences analysis asks about the voting consequences of a rise in debtor distress following a 2001 deregulation of consumer-debt collection. We find that debtor distress has a positive effect on support for (new) extreme right and populist parties, but a negative effect on a (traditional) extreme-left party. The effects of debtor distress we uncover are robust to whether and how we control for economic hardship, the effects of debtor distress and economic hardship are of similar magnitude, but operate in opposing directions across the political spectrum.
Klíčová slova:
debtor distress; distress warrants; populist parties
Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
Voting under debtor distress
There is growing evidence on the role of economic conditions in the recent successes of populist and extremist parties. However, little is known about the role of over-indebtedness, even though debtor ...
Caves in Bohemia et Moravia Subterranea by Mauritius Vogt (1669–1730)
Rychnová, L.; Vokurka, Michal
2023 - anglický
The Manuscript Bohemia et Moravia Subterranea (1729) by Mauritius Vogt reflects the subterranean landscapes and underground spaces based on Athanasius Kircher’s theories. The paper analyses the application of Kirchers’s terminology to the natural phenomena from Bohemia and Moravia. Further, we focused on how Vogt worked with his sources – how far he relied on literature, correspondence, or personal experience.
Klíčová slova:
Mauritius Vogt; caves; subterranean; underground; early modern period
Plné texty jsou dostupné na jednotlivých ústavech Akademie věd ČR.
Caves in Bohemia et Moravia Subterranea by Mauritius Vogt (1669–1730)
The Manuscript Bohemia et Moravia Subterranea (1729) by Mauritius Vogt reflects the subterranean landscapes and underground spaces based on Athanasius Kircher’s theories. The paper analyses the ...
The long-term impact of energy poverty and its mitigation on educational attainment: evidence from China
Martirosyan, Yervand
2023 - anglický
Existing studies demonstrate the short-run connection between environmental conditions and academic performance. However, the long-term effects of exposure to adverse living conditions on academic achievement remain underexplored. This study investigates the long-term impact of energy poverty, and policy interventions aimed at alleviating it, on the academic performance of Chinese schoolchildren starting from infancy. It specifically utilizes the Huai River Policy, which provides free winter heating exclusively to northern regions in China but not to adjacent southern regions. My findings suggest a significant positive influence of winter heating on schoolchildren’s academic performance, with a more pronounced effect for children born during winter months. The insights gained from this research could inform policy debates to enhance educational outcomes and human well-being.\n
Klíčová slova:
energy poverty; academic performance; climate
Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
The long-term impact of energy poverty and its mitigation on educational attainment: evidence from China
Existing studies demonstrate the short-run connection between environmental conditions and academic performance. However, the long-term effects of exposure to adverse living conditions on academic ...
Hostility, population sorting, and backwardness: quasi-experimental evidence from the Red Army after WWII
Ochsner, Christian
2023 - anglický
Does a short episode of conflict or exposure to hostile troops cause regional economic backwardness, and if so, why and how does it persist? I answer these questions by exploiting economic differences across the idiosyncratic and short-lived line of contact between the Red Army and the Western Allies in South Austria at the end of WWII. Spatial regression discontinuity estimates show that hostile presence of the Red Army for 74 days caused an immediate relative population decline of around 12%, amplified to 25% by today. Age-specific migration patterns and subsequent fertility differences explain the multiplying effects. Sector development and measures of local labor productivity in 2011 also lag behind in regions briefly seized by the Red Army, likely driven by skill-specific migration and hampered investment patterns after WWII. The findings provide novel insights into the long-run effects of wars and conflicts, and point to the isolated role of the Red Army’s hostile actions after WWII to understand the European economic East-West divide.\n
Klíčová slova:
conflict; hostility; population shock
Dokument je dostupný na externích webových stránkách.
Hostility, population sorting, and backwardness: quasi-experimental evidence from the Red Army after WWII
Does a short episode of conflict or exposure to hostile troops cause regional economic backwardness, and if so, why and how does it persist? I answer these questions by exploiting economic differences ...
NUŠL poskytuje centrální přístup k informacím o šedé literatuře vznikající v ČR v oblastech vědy, výzkumu a vzdělávání. Více informací o šedé literatuře a NUŠL najdete na webu služby.
Vaše náměty a připomínky posílejte na email nusl@techlib.cz
Provozovatel
Zahraniční báze