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Inflation expectations in the wake of the war in Ukraine
Afunts, Geghetsik; Cato, M.; Schmidt, T.
2023 - English
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is posing a range of new challenges to the global economy, including affecting the inflation expectations of individuals. In this paper, we aim to quantify the effect of the invasion on short- and long-term inflation expectations of individuals in Germany. We use microdata from the Bundesbank Online Panel - Households (BOP-HH), for the period from February 15th to March 29th, 2022. Treating the unanticipated start of the war in Ukraine on the 24th of February 2022 as a natural experiment, we find that both short- and long-term inflation expectations increased as an immediate result of the invasion. Long-term inflation expectations increased by around 0.4 percentage points, while the impact on short-term inflation expectations was more than twice as large - around one percentage point. Looking into the possible mechanisms of this increase, we suggest that it can be partially attributed to individuals’ fears of soaring energy prices and increasing pessimism about economic trends in general. Our results indicate that large economic shocks can have a substantial impact on both short and long-term inflation expectations.
Keywords:
inflation expectations; Russian invasion of Ukraine; survey
Fulltext is available at external website.
Inflation expectations in the wake of the war in Ukraine
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is posing a range of new challenges to the global economy, including affecting the inflation expectations of individuals. In this paper, we aim to quantify the effect of ...
Ruce a mozky českých žen stále nevyužity
Grossmann, Jakub; Münich, Daniel
2023 - Czech
Tato analýza mapuje celoživotní profily míry zaměstnanosti a odpracované doby Češek a změny za posledních dvacet let. Klíčová zjištění jsou popsána formou komentovaných grafů. Ekonomické a statistické detaily jsou popsány v doprovodných textech. This analysis maps life-long profiles in the unemployment rate and hours worked by Czech women and changes in these over the past twenty years. Its key findings are presented in the form of graphs with commentary. The economic and statistic details are provided\nin the accompanying texts.
Keywords:
labour market; women; Czech Republic
Fulltext is available at external website.
Ruce a mozky českých žen stále nevyužity
Tato analýza mapuje celoživotní profily míry zaměstnanosti a odpracované doby Češek a změny za posledních dvacet let. Klíčová zjištění jsou popsána formou komentovaných grafů. Ekonomické a statistické ...
Vývoj postojů české veřejnosti k válečným uprchlíkům z Ukrajiny
Münich, Daniel; Protivínský, Tomáš
2023 - Czech
Po vojenském útoku Ruska na Ukrajinu koncem února 2022 v Česku převládla atmosféra solidarity a většina Čechů přijímání válečných uprchlíků podporovala. Tato podpora do konce listopadu klesla zhruba o čtvrtinu. Podobně se zhoršovala vnímaná míra integrace Ukrajinců do české společnosti. Změna postojů české společnosti v čase však nevycházela primárně z osobní zkušenosti a z prožitého příchodu uprchlíků, ale souvisela spíše s postupně opadávajícím zájmem po vypuknutí konfliktu a prvotním šoku. Ačkoli se integrace Ukrajinců v některých dimenzích ve druhé polovině roku 2022 reálně zlepšila, například ve školách nebo na trhu práce, do vnímání české společnosti se tyto dílčí pokroky nepromítly. In the wake of Russia’s military assault on Ukraine at the end of February 2022, an atmosphere of solidarity prevailed in the Czech Republic and most of the Czech population supported the country’s intake of war refugees. By the end of November 2022, that support had fallen by approximately one quarter. Czechs’ perceptions of how well integrated Ukrainians were into Czech society worsened similarly. This change in Czech public attitudes over time did not, however, stem primarily from personal or first hand experience of welcoming refugees, rather, it was related to a gradual decrease in public interest in the conflict after the initial shock of it first beginning. Although several aspects of Ukrainian refugees’ integration improved in real terms in the second half of 2022, for example in relation to schools and to the labour market, this progress was not reflected in Czech public opinion.
Keywords:
Ukrainian refugees; views and attitudes; Czech Republic
Fulltext is available at external website.
Vývoj postojů české veřejnosti k válečným uprchlíkům z Ukrajiny
Po vojenském útoku Ruska na Ukrajinu koncem února 2022 v Česku převládla atmosféra solidarity a většina Čechů přijímání válečných uprchlíků podporovala. Tato podpora do konce listopadu klesla zhruba o ...
Snížila by větší bytová výstavba cenový růst nemovitostí v letech 2013–2021? Pravděpodobně ne
Šustek, R.; Zapletalová, Lucie
2023 - Czech
Tato studie představuje snadno aplikovatelnou metodu pro studium vývoje cen rezidenčních nemovitostí a faktorů, které je ovlivňují. Obsahem studie je popis základní logiky metody, výsledky jejího použití k analýze růstu cen nemovitostí v ČR v letech 2013–2021 a výsledky analýzy možných budoucích scénářů. This study presents an easily applicable method for the study of price trends in residential property markets and the factors that affect them. The study describes the basic reasoning behind the method and presents results of using it to analyse house price increases in the Czech Republic during the period of 2013-2021, and to analyse various future housing market scenarios.
Keywords:
residential property markets; house prices; Czech Republic
Fulltext is available at external website.
Snížila by větší bytová výstavba cenový růst nemovitostí v letech 2013–2021? Pravděpodobně ne
Tato studie představuje snadno aplikovatelnou metodu pro studium vývoje cen rezidenčních nemovitostí a faktorů, které je ovlivňují. Obsahem studie je popis základní logiky metody, výsledky jejího ...
Parental allowance increase and labour supply: evidence from a Czech reform
Grossmann, Jakub; Pertold, Filip; Šoltés, M.
2023 - English
We study the effect of a CZK 80,000 (36%) increase in parental allowance, a universal basic income-type benefit, on the labor supply of parents in the Czech Republic. Drawing a parental allowance does not preclude labor market activity, which allows us to study the income effect. After the reform, mothers substantially prolonged the average period they drew an allowance. The labor market participation of mothers of young children decreased by 6 percentage points (15%). The estimated effect corresponds to a non-labor income labor supply elasticity at the extensive margin of about -0.5. The effect is particularly strong among mothers with their first child (10 p.p. or 28%) and among university-educated mothers (16 p.p. or 36%). We observe a virtually identical reduction in hours worked. We found no effect on the labor supply of fathers.
Keywords:
parental allowance; maternal labor supply; income effect of social policy
Fulltext is available at external website.
Parental allowance increase and labour supply: evidence from a Czech reform
We study the effect of a CZK 80,000 (36%) increase in parental allowance, a universal basic income-type benefit, on the labor supply of parents in the Czech Republic. Drawing a parental allowance does ...
Voting under debtor distress
Grossmann, Jakub; Jurajda, Štěpán
2023 - English
There is growing evidence on the role of economic conditions in the recent successes of populist and extremist parties. However, little is known about the role of over-indebtedness, even though debtor distress has grown in Europe following the financial crisis. We study the unique case of the Czech Republic, where by 2017, nearly one in ten citizens had been served at least one debtor distress warrant even though the country consistently features low unemployment. Our municipality-level difference-in-differences analysis asks about the voting consequences of a rise in debtor distress following a 2001 deregulation of consumer-debt collection. We find that debtor distress has a positive effect on support for (new) extreme right and populist parties, but a negative effect on a (traditional) extreme-left party. The effects of debtor distress we uncover are robust to whether and how we control for economic hardship, the effects of debtor distress and economic hardship are of similar magnitude, but operate in opposing directions across the political spectrum.
Keywords:
debtor distress; distress warrants; populist parties
Fulltext is available at external website.
Voting under debtor distress
There is growing evidence on the role of economic conditions in the recent successes of populist and extremist parties. However, little is known about the role of over-indebtedness, even though debtor ...
Pandemie a očekávání rodičů ohledně návratnosti investic do vzdělávání dětí
Korbel, Václav
2023 - Czech
Tato studie shrnuje zjištění empirického šetření dopadů výluky prezenční výuky ve školách na očekávání rodičů ohledně návratnosti jejich finančních a časových investic do vzdělávání dětí. Použil jsem čtyři opakovaná dotazníková šetření během roku 2020 a 2021, ve kterých rodiče odpovídali na hypotetické scénáře, ve kterých dvě fiktivní rodiny investují různé množství času a peněz do vzdělávání svého dítěte. Na základě scénářů rodiče odhadovali, kolik bude dítě s danou úrovní investic vydělávat ve 30 letech. Podobně odhadovali, jak moc je pro výdělek důležitá kvalita školy. Tato experimentální metodologie umožňuje identifikovat změny v očekávání rodičů během pandemie. This study summarises the findings of an empirical survey of the impacts that interruptions to in-person teaching in schools had on parents’ expectations about the returns to their financial and time investments in their children’s education. The study made use of four\nrepeated questionnaire surveys carried out during 2020 and 2021, in which parents responded to hypothetical scenarios involving two fictitious families who invest different amounts of time and money in their children’s education. On the basis of these scenarios, the parents estimated how much each fictitious child would earn at the age of 30, taking into account the given level of investment in their education. They also estimated how much the quality of the child’s schooling would impact their future earnings. This experimental methodology enables us to identify how parents’ expectations changed during the pandemic.\n
Keywords:
distance education; returns to education; Covid-19
Fulltext is available at external website.
Pandemie a očekávání rodičů ohledně návratnosti investic do vzdělávání dětí
Tato studie shrnuje zjištění empirického šetření dopadů výluky prezenční výuky ve školách na očekávání rodičů ohledně návratnosti jejich finančních a časových investic do vzdělávání dětí. Použil jsem ...
Disclosure discrimination: an experiment focusing on communication in the hiring process
Badalyan, S.; Korlyakova, Darya; Rehák, Rastislav
2023 - English
We focus on communication among hiring team members and document the existence of discrimination in the disclosure of information about candidates. In particular, we conduct an online experiment with a nationally representative sample of Czech individuals who act as human resource assistants and hiring managers in our online labor market. The main novel feature of our experiment is the monitoring of information flow between human resource assistants and hiring managers. We exogenously manipulate candidates’ names to explore the causal effects of their gender and nationality on information that assistants select for managers. Our findings reveal that assistants disclose more information about family and less information about work for female candidates relative to male candidates. An in-depth analysis of the disclosed information suggests that gender stereotypes play an important role in this disclosure discrimination. Furthermore, assistants disclose less information about foreigners overall. This effect appears to be driven by the less attention assistants are willing to devote to the CVs of foreigners, measured by the extra effort to learn more about the candidates.
Keywords:
information; disclosure; hiring
Fulltext is available at external website.
Disclosure discrimination: an experiment focusing on communication in the hiring process
We focus on communication among hiring team members and document the existence of discrimination in the disclosure of information about candidates. In particular, we conduct an online experiment with ...
Racial discrimination and lost innovation: evidence from US inventors, 1895–1925
Coluccia, D. M.; Dossi, G.; Ottinger, Sebastian
2023 - English
How can racial discrimination harm innovation? We study this question using data on US inventors linked to population censuses in 1895-1925. Our novel identification strategy leverages plausibly exogenous variation in the timing of lynchings and the name of the victims.\nWe find an immediate and persistent decrease in patents granted to inventors who share their names with the victims of lynchings, but only when victims are Black. We hypothesize that lynchings accentuate the racial content of the victim’s name to patent examiners,\nwho do not observe inventor race from patent applications. We interpret these findings as evidence of discrimination by patent examiners and provide evidence against alternative mechanisms.
Keywords:
discrimination; innovation; lynchings
Fulltext is available at external website.
Racial discrimination and lost innovation: evidence from US inventors, 1895–1925
How can racial discrimination harm innovation? We study this question using data on US inventors linked to population censuses in 1895-1925. Our novel identification strategy leverages plausibly ...
(Ne)zvyšování sociálních dávek v letech 2012–2023: přehled
Janský, Petr; Kolář, Daniel
2023 - Czech
V tomto přehledu mapujeme vývoj dávek sociálního charakteru v posledních deseti letech ve srovnání s vývojem inflace, průměrných mezd a starobních důchodů. Pokud má být zachována reálná kupní síla dávek, měl by jejich růst odpovídat alespoň inflaci. Pokud má\núroveň sociálního zajištění držet krok s dlouhodobým ekonomickým vývojem, měla by se úroveň dávek zvyšovat zhruba tempem růstu mezd v ekonomice a objem výdajů na dávky zhruba tempem růstu HDP. In this overview, we map trends in the value of social benefits over the past ten years and compare them to trends in inflation, average salaries and old age pensions. If the real purchase power of benefits is to remain stable, they should be raised at least at the same rate as inflation. If we want social benefits to continue to provide the same level of financial security, keeping pace with economic developments in the long term, then their value should rise at approximately the same rate as the average salary, and spending on benefits\nshould increase at approximately the same rate as GDP.
Keywords:
social benefits; real purchase power; inflation
Fulltext is available at external website.
(Ne)zvyšování sociálních dávek v letech 2012–2023: přehled
V tomto přehledu mapujeme vývoj dávek sociálního charakteru v posledních deseti letech ve srovnání s vývojem inflace, průměrných mezd a starobních důchodů. Pokud má být zachována reálná kupní síla ...
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